North Carolina: the new Ohio?

[illegaloperation]

With Ohio losing EV and North Carolina gaining them, could North Carolina be the new Ohio in presidential elections?

[Never]

That is definitely possible. The South Atlantic states in general are probably going to augment their new position as large and competitive states, but it is going to take a great deal for any state to displace Ohio as the premier swing state in presidential elections.

[DS0816]

North Carolina is likely the next presidential bellwether state. A trend has developed in its partisan identification: in 2000, it was about 13 points more Republican than the nation; in 2004, it was 10 points more Republican than the nation; in 2008, when it became a Democratic pickup for Barack Obama, it was 7 points more Republican than the nation; in 2012, a Republican pickup of the state for Mitt Romney, it was 6 points more Republican than the nation. And the 2012 male vote in North Carolina was one point more Democratic than the nation. (Barack Obama received 45 percent nationally from males; in North Carolina, he received 46 percent of the male vote.)

I don't look to North Carolina as a replacement bellwether to Ohio. I look at North Carolina as joining those already on bellwether status which make one immediately think first of Ohio.