The Political Tracker (Suspended)

[Lumine]

August At-Large Special Election:

-Turnout: 44,70% (76 voters - Last Voter: Supersonic)

Spiral (Democratic Republican): 34,21% (26)
Dr. Cynic (Labor): 22,36% (17)
Matt from VT (The People's Party): 21,05% (16)
JCL (Federalist): 15,78% (12)
Mechaman (Bad Party): 2,63% (2)
WrathOfTheGods (Independent) 1,31% (1)
GAworth (P.E.A.C.E. Party) 1,31% (1)
Poirot (Independent) 1,31% (1)

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Spiral v Cynic:

Spiral (Democratic Republican): 53,94% (41)
Dr. Cynic (Labor): 39,47% (30)
Invalid: 6,57% (5)

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Spiral v Matt:

Spiral (Democratic Republican): 48,68% (37)

Matt from VT (The People's Party): 47,36% (36)
Invalid: 3,94% (3)

[Lumine]

August At-Large Special Election:

-Turnout: 48,26% (82 voters - Last Voter: Oldiesfreak)

Spiral (Democratic Republican): 34,14% (28)
Dr. Cynic (Labor): 23,17% (19)
Matt from VT (The People's Party): 20,73% (17)
JCL (Federalist): 14,63% (12)
Mechaman (Bad Party): 2,43% (2)
Poirot (Independent) 2,43% (2)
GAworth (P.E.A.C.E. Party) 1,21% (1)
WrathOfTheGods (Independent) 1,21% (1)
________________________________________________________________________________________________

Spiral v Cynic:

Spiral (Democratic Republican): 53,65% (44)
Dr. Cynic (Labor): 40,24% (30)
Invalid/Exhausted: 6,09% (5)

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Spiral v Matt:

Spiral (Democratic Republican): 48,78% (40)

Matt from VT (The People's Party): 47,56% (39)
Invalid/Exhausted: 3,65% (3)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dr. Cynic (20): Nix, Barnes, Talleyrand, Griffin, Dr. Cynic, TheCranberry, hawkeye, Miles, SWE, Gass3268, Mattrose, Fritz, Dear King Edward IV, HLC, bore, Earl, Adamob, Alfred, TNF, Tyrion,
Spiral (30): JoMCar, TheRileyKeaton, Spiral, Maxwell, ElectionsGuy, Small L, Rosettastoned, Reaganfan, Simfan, NHI, PiT, BMotely, shua, baconbacon, Pessimistic Antineutrino, RR1997, Cinyc, Dallasfan, Peeperkorn, outofthebox, Deus, angus, daveosupremo, MasterJedi, Goldwater, ChairmanSanchez, SupersonicVenue, dead0man, Oldiesfreak, HagridoftheDeep
WOTG (1) : WOTG (exhausted),
GAWorth (1): GAWorth (Cynic over Spiral)
JCL (14): Cassius (Spiral Second), Rooney (Spiral second), Never (Spiral second), Maistre (Spiral Second), Lumine (spiral over Cynic), TMTH (Spiral), Rpryor (Spiral), Cris (Spiral Second), DC (spiral Second), Spamage (Cynic), Winfield (Spiral), Pingvin (Spiral), Anton Kreitzer (Sprial), TJ (spiral)
Matt (17): Franzl (Cynic Second), Flo (Cynic over Spiral), TDAS04 (Cynic second), IBDD (Spiral Second), Jack Enderman (exhausted), Duke (Cynic Second), Paul Kemp (Exhausted), Ben (exhausted),  Sawx (Cynic), WorkingClassBro (Spiral), Smolthchanov (Cynic), sbane (Spiral second), Matt (Cynic), Sjoyce (Cynic), Oakvale (Spiral), Polnut (Cynic), Snowstalker (Cynic)
Mechaman (1): Windjammer (Cynic),
Poirot (1): Poirot (Spiral)
Invalid (1): NJ CHristian (Registered too late?)


Firsts
Spiral by 10

MAtt Votes
10 Cynic, 4 Spiral = Cynic + 6
                       
JCL Votes
13 Spiral 1 Cynic = Spiral + 12

Others
2 Cynic 1 Spiral = Cynic + 1

Spiral by 15?

Is this crude method even somewhat correct? And yes this is garbage if Matt overtakes Cynic as I didn't track Cynic's downballot prefs.

[Lumine]

Is this crude method even somewhat correct? And yes this is garbage if Matt overtakes Cynic as I didn't track Cynic's downballot prefs.

I believe so, I also had trouble with counting preferences, xD

That said, we can safely assume Spiral will win this unless Matt gets four to five votes in the hour we have left, since it's pretty much confirmed that Cynic will lose a final round against Spiral (Spiral might even cross the 50% mark against him).

[Fritz]

Invalid (1): NJ CHristian (Registered too late?)

That is correct, and WorkingClassBro is invalid as well.  Must be registered 7 days before the election begins in order to vote.

[Lumine]

Invalid (1): NJ CHristian (Registered too late?)

That is correct, and WorkingClassBro is invalid as well.  Must be registered 7 days before the election begins in order to vote.

Oh, then with that vote less for Matt we can assume it will be Cynic v. Spiral (and a default Spiral victory) save for something unexpected happening in the final minutes.

[Dr. Cynic]

So it was the left that was split, not the right... Oh well. I should just go blow my brains out now, I guess...

[Lumine]

So it was the left that was split, not the right... Oh well. I should just go blow my brains out now, I guess...

More than a split, I would blame low turnout. Labor had 50 members and you had only 20 voters on the first round, while in comparision turnout among the center-right is high enough to lead to a Spiral-JCL round should JCL get four more votes.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So it was the left that was split, not the right... Oh well. I should just go blow my brains out now, I guess...

It is not that they split, it is that they did not turnout.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And so it ends.

[Lumine]

Cavalcade of Stars:

Rumors of the Presidential race starting early, Nix and Hagrid on fire and Spiral defeats Cynic, Matt and JCL?

August 4th:

It is often said that history tends to repeat itself (regardless of which vision of history you share, from the Greeks to the chaos of modern times), although Atlasia tends to repeat it far too often, sometimes not in a very positive way. Right after losing Shua the Senate was dealt another blow in the middle of a mild activity and legislative crisis with the resignation of Senator DC al Fine on activity grounds, reducing the Senate to eight members and giving the Labor Party a brief supermajority. It feel to the Mideast to pick a new Senator, and Governor Riley (who abruptly returned to take full control of his office once again) appointed Cassius to the seat, leading to some confusion on whether a confirmation hearing was needed. In the end one was opened, and while Cassius is expected to be easily confirmed to serve as the next regional Senator his appointment has led to a pretty harsh duel between the Governor and Former Representative JCL, which has resulted in a lengthy debate unresolved as of now. And just as it seemed that Dr. Cynic would finally stage his comeback by taking Shua’s seat over a center-right looking divided between Spiral, JCL and Matt, turnout dropped like bombs on Stalingrad and Cynic was unable to mobilize the resources that could have given him a convincing victory for the open seat. Despite strong showings and brave campaigns on behalf of Matt and JCL, Spiral garnered enough support among the DR’s, the Federalists and many centrists to win a victory according to current projections, with the rest of the candidates staying below 3% and failing to derail the chances of the rest of the candidates. As a result, the Senate will have the same representation it had before the resignations of Shua and DC for the rest of the month, staying with five Labor Senators (plus the VP), four Federalists and one Democratic-Republican.

In other news, new issues have appeared through Atlasia thanks to recent events, with SoEA Nix and citizen WrathOfTheGods bringing up the Ebola virus disaster in Africa and the need for foreign aid to the affected nations, with President DemPGH stating that he would prefer the funding to go to research. The Cabinet has taken up an ambitious schedule following polls showing high approval rates for most of them, with SoEA Nix appointing Gov. Riley as the Special Envoy to the Middle East and preparing efforts to bolster and aid the government of Lebanon and SoIA Hagrid successfully unveiling the second Pacific Stimulus Act in Los Angeles, and act that combined with his activity levels serves to explain Hagrid’s impressive approval rates, one of the highest in recent time for a public servant. Finally, it seems the parties are beginning to prepare for the coming elections, and there’s growing speculation on what will happen after the At-Large elections are over and September comes. Many individuals seem to be thinking about the Presidential election already, which might mean that the October election has a chance to replicate the exciting elections of June and October 2013 instead of the boring (according to many) elections of February and June 2014. Either way, the Political Tracker will run a couple of polls on the subject in the coming days just for fun.

[Lumine]

Fourth At-Large Senate Poll:

Results:

Senator LumineVonReuental (i) (Fed) - 17.5%
Northeast Representative Deus (DR) - 17.5%
Former President Polnut (TPP) - 17.5%
Senator Dr. Cynic (i) (Lab) - 15%
Mideast Assemblyman JCL (Fed) - 12.5%
Senator Alfred F. Jones (i) (Lab) - 7.5%
Former Legislator Mechaman (Bad Party) - 5%
Former SoIA Gaworth (P.E.A.C.E) - 5%
Former Senator Clarence (Fed) - 2.5%

Total Voters: 40.

After yet another change of seats in the Senate we will have three incumbents running for reelection, and the scenario looks good for at least two of them. It seems this poll might be the most accurate considering the recent ones and the low amount of votes for Labor, which is now corrected to give Cynic a decisive advantage against his fellow party member Alfred, who continues to struggle to gain over 10%. Deus and Lumine are still strong and consolidated among their targeted voters, and Polnut continues to gain votes in each poll (which might suggest a victory for him if he manages to maximize his appeal in the center and with independents). With Clarence failing to enter the forum for the past weeks there are growing concerns about his campaign, and JCL has enjoyed a surge in support in the polls. Overall, it seems Deus, Cynic and Lumine are almost assured to win a seat, and the other two will now be fought between Alfred, JCL and Polnut. GAworth and Mechaman are polling stronger than their actual results in the Special Election, but with TPP having a centrist candidate and the non-Labor far left almost dead, it's hard to see them reaching 10% with the current numbers. Nine candidates, five seats and it seems we will have a competitive race until the end.

[Lumine]

Tracker suspended for the time being:

As many of you know, the Tracker caused quite a bit of a controversy after posting a poll regarding Vice-President Windjammer's then-latest actions, which ended up in a debate regarding the role of the Vice-President and some harsh rhetoric now and then. I believe the key for news media in Atlasia is credibility (and perhaps prestige as well), and some officeholders like the President and the Vice-President have expressed their skepticism regarding my ability to remain neutral (to put it mildly) in my coverage of news. Now, I stated from the very beginning there that some of my views were bound to affect this in some way, but as the current situation stands I don't feel the Tracker has enough confidence to work as if nothing had happened. There is merit in the idea that I have confused a few issues, and as you probably realized it would be hard for me to make the Tracker fully neutral given the current context of Atlasia (and what I consider will come after this) and some recent comments.

As a result, I will take the kind advice given to me and I will instead focus on my Senate career for the time being, given that after all there are many things to be done and said. Atlasia already has excellent newspapers with the Observer, the Mideast Telegraph, the Porcupine and so forth, so it's not like the Tracker is really necessary for Atlasia in any way when the other newspapers have been doing a fantastic job (and I look forward to see what they will bring in the future). Thus, I will be suspending the Tracker for some time, at least until this issue has calmed down and I feel it's the right time to continue. Could take a week, could take a month, time will tell. In the meantime, I thank all of those who have followed the Tracker for the past three months and I also wish to thank all the positive feedback I've recieved so far. Thank you very much, gentlemen!

The Director.

[windjammer]

Just to be clear,
You have a good job with your political tracker overall. No one can be neutral.

But the problem, this is your poll, that was really weird. You understand?

[Lumine]

Just to be clear,
You have a good job with your political tracker overall. No one can be neutral.

But the problem, this is your poll, that was really weird. You understand?

Yes, Windjammer, I understand the motives and in a way the consequences, hence why I have suspended this to take some time and let things calm down a bit.

[Oakvale]

Awful news. Whatever the current controversy that has been one of the best newspaper/things in the game in years and its absence will be sorely missed.

[windjammer]

Awful news. Whatever the current controversy that has been one of the best newspaper/things in the game in years and its absence will be sorely missed.

And I agree with that.

[Potus]

Horrible news. The administration should be absolutely ashamed of itself for pressuring Lumine to close. This is easily one of the worst things to happen in a long time.

[Lumine]

Horrible news. The administration should be absolutely ashamed of itself for pressuring Lumine to close. This is easily one of the worst things to happen in a long time.

Thank you Riley, but let's not exaggerate here, I'm suspending it because I feel it's for the best and I want this to be as smooth as possible.

[windjammer]

No one has pressured Lumine to close.

[Potus]

Horrible news. The administration should be absolutely ashamed of itself for pressuring Lumine to close. This is easily one of the worst things to happen in a long time.

Thank you Riley, but let's not exaggerate here, I'm suspending it because I feel it's for the best and I want this to be as smooth as possible.

It's only "not smooth" because windjammer uses outrage to quiet people in the media. That's what's going on here. If the Vice President throws a sufficiently loud and incomprehensible fit, he can shut his critics up.

[windjammer]

Horrible news. The administration should be absolutely ashamed of itself for pressuring Lumine to close. This is easily one of the worst things to happen in a long time.

Thank you Riley, but let's not exaggerate here, I'm suspending it because I feel it's for the best and I want this to be as smooth as possible.

It's only "not smooth" because windjammer uses outrage to quiet people in the media. That's what's going on here. If the Vice President throws a sufficiently loud and incomprehensible fit, he can shut his critics up.

Once again you're lying. I just pointed out I didn't ask Llumine to close this tracker. And I'm sad to see he closes that.

And this poll was weird and even Lumine can recognize that.

[Lumine]

Alright, I said I want this to be smooth and non-controversial and I mean it, and since I'm not in the mood for a debate over this I'll lock the thread as well.