2012 as a 60% landslide (user search)
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  2012 as a 60% landslide (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2012 as a 60% landslide  (Read 6631 times)
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
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« on: June 25, 2014, 01:52:45 PM »

Methodology:

1. Divide Obama margin in each state by that state's FiveThirtyEight elasticity score
2. Add 8.9 to the elasticity adjusted margin to determine the margin in an Obama landslide
3. Add 12.8 to the elasticity adjusted margin to determine the margin of victory in a Romney landslide

2012 Obama 60% landslide


361
177

States where the margin of victory was below 5%
1. Missouri, .31
2. Georgia, .31

3. Arizona, .7
4. Alaska, 1.29

5. Indiana, 1.4
6. Montana, 3.29

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%
1. South Carolina, 6.06
2. North Carolina, 6.68
3. Texas, 6.88
4. South Dakota, 7.48
5. North Dakota, 7.88

6. Florida, 9.74

2012 Romney 60% landslide

373
165

States where the margin of victory was below 5%
1. Washington, .36
2. Maine, 2.2

3. Oregon, 2.38
4. Connecticut, 3.55
5. Michigan, 3.58
6. New Mexico, 3.87
7. New Jersey, 4.1

8. Illinois, 4.1

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%
1. Minnesota, 5.27
2. Delaware, 6.21
3. Wisconsin, 6.48
4. Massachusetts, 6.65
5. Iowa, 7.83
6. New Hampshire, 8.46

7. Rhode Island, 8.48
8. Colorado, 8.52
9. California, 9.87
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SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
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*****
Posts: 13,316
United States


P P P
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2014, 06:05:31 PM »

What about that one district in Nebraska?
I couldn't find the elasticity data on the ME and NE districts, so I really couldn't accurately get the results for those. I'm assuming Obama would've won at least one of the districts, but without knowing the elasticity data I can't be entirely sure?
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