2012 as a 60% landslide (user search)
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  2012 as a 60% landslide (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2012 as a 60% landslide  (Read 6635 times)
🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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Posts: 25,689
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Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

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« on: June 28, 2014, 08:50:03 PM »

I'm guessing you meant to have WV as 50% shade in the Obama landslide? ME shouldn't be 60% Dem in a Romney landslide, though whether it would be Romney or Obama I'm not sure.

From what we've actually seen in the past few election cycles, I think we'd be able to say that in a Romney landslide NE is >60% Romney, with the 3rd district >70%.  In an Obama landslide, 2nd district would go for Obama.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,689
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW
« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2014, 07:06:33 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2014, 02:24:38 AM by shua »

Methodology:

1. Divide Obama margin in each state by that state's FiveThirtyEight elasticity score
2. Add 8.9 to the elasticity adjusted margin to determine the margin in an Obama landslide
3. Add 12.8 to the elasticity adjusted margin to determine the margin of victory in a Romney landslide


I believe what you want to do is add to the actual state result the product of the elasticity score multiplied by 8.9 or 12.8 respectively.
So for LA, with an elasticity score of .79:  (8.9)(.79)+40.58=47.62% Obama in Obama 60% landslide, with Romney's result being (8.9)(-.79)+(57.78)= 50.75% Romney.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,689
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2014, 02:19:44 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2014, 02:44:03 AM by shua »

. . . and thus, a 60% Obama landslide would be


462 - 76.

60% Romney landslide:

489 - 49
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,689
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: -0.70

WWW
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2014, 01:21:29 PM »

Would Obama have gotten past 80% in Hawaii? I imagine that would be the best result for a candidate in their state of birth since Carter.

Yes. 

Actually Obama in both 2008 and 2012 got a higher percentage in HI than Carter did in GA.   Obama in 2008 had the highest percentage performance of a candidate in their birth state since Coolidge in 1924.
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