2012 as a 60% landslide (user search)
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  2012 as a 60% landslide (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2012 as a 60% landslide  (Read 6636 times)
DS0816
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Posts: 3,141
« on: July 27, 2014, 04:02:44 AM »

To carry 60 percent of the U.S. Popular Vote changes the nature of the campaigns with the election season.

I disagree with the premise presented by the OP.
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DS0816
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,141
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2014, 05:33:44 PM »

To carry 60 percent of the U.S. Popular Vote changes the nature of the campaigns with the election season.

I disagree with the premise presented by the OP.


Adding to that post—from four months ago—it needs to be noted that to win 60 percent of the U.S. Popular Vote means winning by a percentage margin of 21 points. (That would be 60 to 39 percent. Leave a buffer of one percent to candidates outside the two major political parties.)

To achieve this, with approximately 130 million presidential votes that were cast over the two most recent elections cycles of 2008 and 2012, means winning the U.S. Popular Vote by 27.3 million raw votes. In California, Barack Obama carried the state in both his elections by over 3 million votes. That state's raw-vote count was approximately one-third his national margin of 9.5 million from 2008. In 2012, that state's raw-vote count was more than half of his approximately 5 million. About every 130,000 raw votes represent a full percentage margin with carriage of California. (Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.) If a national margin is 21 percentage points, and 27.3 million, just how well would California get carried? And what that does that mean compared with the rest of the country? I think a 21-point landslide, or 27.3 millions, is going to leave between 6 and 10 states to the losing opposition. And Texas won't refrain from being party of that national tide. It couldn't.
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