2012 as a 60% landslide

[Nichlemn]

This seems very wrong, are you sure it's not a 55% win either way? Because the borderline states are R+5/D+5ish, I think you've overlooked that each percentage point you gain at the expense of second place doubles your margin of victory.

[Nichlemn]

This seems very wrong, are you sure it's not a 55% win either way? Because the borderline states are R+5/D+5ish, I think you've overlooked that each percentage point you gain at the expense of second place doubles your margin of victory.

Yep, Missouri's elasticity is 1.01 (close enough to 1 that we can ignore it). Obama won 44.28% in Missouri. If there was a universal swing of 9 percentage points, getting Obama from 51% - 60%, then Obama would win ~53% in Missouri. So clearly, the OP's math is wrong.

[Nichlemn]

Romney would have lost just 2 states with just 37% of the vote? Wow!

As I pointed out above, it's wrong: this actually represents a 55:45ish map.