Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
Posts: 4,600
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« on: October 31, 2014, 04:40:51 PM » |
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« edited: October 31, 2014, 04:48:46 PM by Mehmentum »
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The highest any candidate has gotten in the 7 elections since Reagan's re-election is 53.4%.
A 60% landslide would suggest something fundamentally changing in our political environment. In practice things like 538's elasticity score only hold up under a certain range of conditions, and would probably fail in this situation.
The elasticity score is determined by the number of 'swing' voters in the state, but in a 60% landslide suggests that not only is one candidate winning most swing voters, but a large number of people who usually vote for the other party.
Look at what's happened to Brownback and Roberts in Kansas. A 60% landslide would be the equivalent of what happened in Kansas this year, all over the country. That would mean that the losing candidate is fighting for his life solidly Democratic/Republican states and only safe in a few strongholds.
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