Rick Snyder 2016
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Poll
Question: If re-elected in 2014, would Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder be electable nationally if he's the GOP nominee?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 44

Author Topic: Rick Snyder 2016  (Read 3979 times)
dmmidmi
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« Reply #25 on: July 02, 2014, 07:49:30 AM »

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.

To be fair, no other pollster shows Schauer doing so well (coincidentally, or perhaps not, PPP is the only recent pollster there to not use an LV screen). Of course, many of these other pollsters were dead wrong in 2012. It would be nice to get a good pollster in Michigan to see if the results are similar to PPP, but that's probably too much to ask.

You just accurately addressed the first sentence in your post.

But Snyder consistently posting leads between three and eleven points, among pollsters who collectively showed a significant GOP-leaning house effect in 2012, shouldn't be considered a commanding lead, by any stretch of the imagination.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #26 on: July 02, 2014, 08:39:07 AM »

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.
Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #27 on: July 02, 2014, 09:03:04 AM »

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.
Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

Uh has a single nonpartisan polling firm addressed this race? So far it's solely been all those weird EPIC MRA and other junk Michigan polling firms that showed Romney up on Obama and such. PPP is incredibly accurate regardless of their partisan affiliation. In fact in 2012 they were on average a point or two more Republican than the real outcome.
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Never
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« Reply #28 on: July 02, 2014, 09:38:12 AM »

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.
Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

Uh has a single nonpartisan polling firm addressed this race? So far it's solely been all those weird EPIC MRA and other junk Michigan polling firms that showed Romney up on Obama and such. PPP is incredibly accurate regardless of their partisan affiliation. In fact in 2012 they were on average a point or two more Republican than the real outcome.

It looks like EPIC MRA and the Detriot News were close to the final result in their last polls of the 2010 governor's race in Michigan, based on aggregated data from RealClearPolitics. Both aforementioned pollsters predicted that Snyder would win by 18 points, and he ended up winning by 18.2. Unfortunately, PPP stopped polling this race in September of that year, so we probably can't fairly judge their final poll showing Snyder up by 21 points. My point is that while PPP is a generally accurate polling company, they aren't perfect, and it might not be the best idea to only trust one pollster.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #29 on: July 02, 2014, 01:12:07 PM »

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.
Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

Uh has a single nonpartisan polling firm addressed this race? So far it's solely been all those weird EPIC MRA and other junk Michigan polling firms that showed Romney up on Obama and such. PPP is incredibly accurate regardless of their partisan affiliation. In fact in 2012 they were on average a point or two more Republican than the real outcome.

It looks like EPIC MRA and the Detriot News were close to the final result in their last polls of the 2010 governor's race in Michigan, based on aggregated data from RealClearPolitics. Both aforementioned pollsters predicted that Snyder would win by 18 points, and he ended up winning by 18.2. Unfortunately, PPP stopped polling this race in September of that year, so we probably can't fairly judge their final poll showing Snyder up by 21 points. My point is that while PPP is a generally accurate polling company, they aren't perfect, and it might not be the best idea to only trust one pollster.

I don't, it just happens that only one pollster I trust has polled this race. It would be great to get SUSA or Quinnipiac here
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: July 02, 2014, 01:24:35 PM »

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.
Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

PPP is one of the best. Michigan has lots of right-leaning pollsters who get proved wrong in the general election.

Mark Schauer can win. He was one of the barer losers in the 2010 Tea Party election, and at the request of the Koch brothers, the State legislature gerrymandered Schauer out of most of what had been his district, roughly an R+3 district. 

His district, largely in rural southern Michigan, is not near the great population centers of southeastern Michigan. He has not been known well there. As he gets better known in southeastern Michigan he can and will gain.

Rick Snyder has $crewed working people by supporting Right-to-Work legislation in a heavily-unionized state. He was doing fine until then, and I saw him as one of the most likely VP nominees of the Republican Party.

 
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Never
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« Reply #31 on: July 02, 2014, 01:35:34 PM »

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.
Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

Uh has a single nonpartisan polling firm addressed this race? So far it's solely been all those weird EPIC MRA and other junk Michigan polling firms that showed Romney up on Obama and such. PPP is incredibly accurate regardless of their partisan affiliation. In fact in 2012 they were on average a point or two more Republican than the real outcome.

It looks like EPIC MRA and the Detriot News were close to the final result in their last polls of the 2010 governor's race in Michigan, based on aggregated data from RealClearPolitics. Both aforementioned pollsters predicted that Snyder would win by 18 points, and he ended up winning by 18.2. Unfortunately, PPP stopped polling this race in September of that year, so we probably can't fairly judge their final poll showing Snyder up by 21 points. My point is that while PPP is a generally accurate polling company, they aren't perfect, and it might not be the best idea to only trust one pollster.

I don't, it just happens that only one pollster I trust has polled this race. It would be great to get SUSA or Quinnipiac here

I agree that both pollsters you mentioned would provide valuable insight. I like PPP, but I wait to make judgment calls on their data until a second reliable pollster corroborates their polling.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #32 on: July 02, 2014, 04:15:59 PM »

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.
Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.
Have you seen the other recent polls?  Snyder is comfortably ahead in those.  I'd rather take my numbers from a nonpartisan pollster than the polling arm of the Democratic party.

Uh has a single nonpartisan polling firm addressed this race? So far it's solely been all those weird EPIC MRA and other junk Michigan polling firms that showed Romney up on Obama and such. PPP is incredibly accurate regardless of their partisan affiliation. In fact in 2012 they were on average a point or two more Republican than the real outcome.

It looks like EPIC MRA and the Detriot News were close to the final result in their last polls of the 2010 governor's race in Michigan, based on aggregated data from RealClearPolitics. Both aforementioned pollsters predicted that Snyder would win by 18 points, and he ended up winning by 18.2. Unfortunately, PPP stopped polling this race in September of that year, so we probably can't fairly judge their final poll showing Snyder up by 21 points. My point is that while PPP is a generally accurate polling company, they aren't perfect, and it might not be the best idea to only trust one pollster.

UNH's polling was also fairly accurate for NH, but it wound up swinging wildly from each candidate, sometimes by about 20 points. Which proves my point - you can get an accurate result - but the methodology behind each poll makes it a junk firm.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #33 on: July 18, 2014, 05:56:51 PM »

The Detroit Water issue may cause problems for Snyder if he runs for president in 2016. The issue would be played over and over in  the media.

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2014/07/large_water_shutoff_protest_pl.html
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #34 on: July 19, 2014, 09:11:33 PM »

The Detroit Water issue may cause problems for Snyder if he runs for president in 2016. The issue would be played over and over in  the media.

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2014/07/large_water_shutoff_protest_pl.html

The real issue has nothing to do with people's water being shut off, or the protests. The real issue revolves around the future of the Detroit Water and Sewage Department, and whether or not it becomes privatized.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #35 on: July 20, 2014, 08:18:38 AM »

With Snyder's worst result in the last 20 polls cited on RCP being a tie I don't think you could make the argument that he's not going to win reelection. People who may know more about Michigan politics can offer plausible arguments for why Schauer is competitive, but that's not the same as suggesting that Snyder should plan to have a lot of free time on his hands in half an year.

The political environment of 2014 is not the same as 2012, and it does seem that there's some wishful thinking from people who would prefer Mark Schauer in the Governor's mansion.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2014, 11:35:49 AM »

The GOP are clearly looking up to Hilary, she is quick on her feet and a sharp debator. 


Whether Synder wins or loses, the DTW economy hangs over his head and the GOP wants to move past its neglect of the auto unions during bailouts.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #37 on: July 20, 2014, 03:37:24 PM »


Not happening.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #38 on: July 20, 2014, 04:30:03 PM »

Snyder, if he wins reelection, is the kind of guy the GOP ought to be thinking about for their national ticket.  He’s a guy who will have beaten Democrats on their turf, and the GOP needs to expand the map.  Taking back FL, VA, and OH would do it, but that’s quite a trifecta for the GOP.  They need a guy on the ticket who has recently beaten a Democrat, and Snyder would fill that bill.

Snyder’s a bit of an unknown nationally, but he’ll be viewed by a guy who used the Emergency Manager law to straighten out bankrupt cities (a disproportionate number of them run by minorities) including Detroit, which everyone believes is abominably run.  Whether that’s true or not is beside the point; America views Detroit as symbolic of urban America’s problems, and Snyder stepped in, took the flak, and “straightened it out as best as could be done”.  At least that’ll be the narrative.  Yes, blacks are furious and crying “Racism” and liberals are on board with this, but centrist independent voters will, I suspect, be quite OK with what Snyder has done with his Emergency Manager law.  To a lesser degree, Snyder’s ramming through and signing a Right to Work law in MICHIGAN, a state that has symbolized union workers, is evidence to some folks in the middle that he’s a guy that’s willing to be unpopular and can get things done.

Is that the real Snyder record?  I don’t know.  Perhaps he’s boring and annoying.  But his record, coupled with a victory over Democrats in a blue state (assuming he wins again) gives him one of the most compelling narratives of anyone running for national office.  I don’t see Snyder launching a Presidential bid, but I see him as a real solid VP possibility, much better (potentially) then a lot of names being floated.
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henster
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« Reply #39 on: July 20, 2014, 04:37:19 PM »

With Snyder's worst result in the last 20 polls cited on RCP being a tie I don't think you could make the argument that he's not going to win reelection. People who may know more about Michigan politics can offer plausible arguments for why Schauer is competitive, but that's not the same as suggesting that Snyder should plan to have a lot of free time on his hands in half an year.

The political environment of 2014 is not the same as 2012, and it does seem that there's some wishful thinking from people who would prefer Mark Schauer in the Governor's mansion.

He's clearly not going to win in a landslide though, he'll likely win narrowly in November throwing out his argument that he could carry MI in a national race out the window.
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