Could LA be competitive in 2016?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Not that Clinton or another Democrat could necessarily carry it, but it was competitive in 2000 and Kerry even campaigned there in 2004. The state has a lot more white Democrats and Catholics than MS & AL. Could it be close, enough so that the Republican is forced to spend money there?

[ElectionsGuy]

Not really, I think the white democrat thing is done. While many whites still identify with the democratic party, McCain won 84% of whites in 2008 and Romney likely carried them by a similar number in 2012. Even if the white republican percentage got down to 75% (2004 number), it would still vote 53-54% republican.

[IceSpear]

Only if the Republican nominee is horrible.

[JRP1994]

Ask me again when we know Mary Landrieu's fate. If she goes down, probably not. If she can hang on in a good GOP year? Maybe.

[henster]

Again seriously overestimating Hillary's abilities as a candidate.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Again seriously overestimating Hillary's abilities as a candidate.

Apparently you didn't read the OP.

[henster]

Again seriously overestimating Hillary's abilities as a candidate.

Apparently you didn't read the OP.

I did it, she won't make it remotely competitive.

[Miles]

I wish, but it would probably start out Lean R.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Again seriously overestimating Hillary's abilities as a candidate.

Apparently you didn't read the OP.

I did it, she won't make it remotely competitive.

I made it very clear my question was non-specific to Clinton.

[Maistre]

No (not living in the 90s).

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No (not living in the 90s).

Neither am I, which is why I referenced 2000 and 2004. I'm talking about the state polling relatively close and having candidates actually campaign there, nothing more.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm going to lean no under normal circumstances.  Of course, we said the same thing about Mississippi in 2012 and the state didn't get called until a lot later than it should have been.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Joe Manchin (D-WV) vs. Susan Collins (R-ME)?  It goes Dem in a landslide.

An actual, realistic scenario for 2016?  Possibly, but I doubt it.  Despite what the Ready For Hillary crowd thinks, she's not a centrist and she has nowhere near the ability to rope in traditionally Democratic groups (like poor Whites) as her husband did, so I don't see it.  A Christie/Clinton election makes Louisiana close; any other Republican hangs on pretty easily, IMO.  It's trending Republican, even locally, much faster than West Virginia, Arkansas and Kentucky.

[illegaloperation]

No

Nick Corasaniti:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Del Tachi]

What if we get another Hurricane Katrina/BP oil spill-type situation hits Louisiana in the late summer/early fall of 2016, but President Obama responds to the event almost perfectly? 

That's the only way I could see the Pelican State becoming competitive in 2016, and that probably couldn't even make the difference because Obama won't be on the ticket in 2016. 

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No

Nick Corasaniti:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Thank you. Guess that's that.

[MATTROSE94]

I'm going to lean no under normal circumstances.  Of course, we said the same thing about Mississippi in 2012 and the state didn't get called until a lot later than it should have been.

[SWE]

Only if the Republican nominee is horrible.

So any Republican candidate?

[Rockefeller GOP]

Only if the Republican nominee is horrible.

So any Republican candidate?

OMG, LOL!!!!

[Kushahontas]

Only if the Republican nominee is horrible.

So any Republican candidate?

OMG, LOL!!!!

[eric82oslo]

Of course. Governor Jindal will make sure of that.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm going to lean no under normal circumstances.  Of course, we said the same thing about Mississippi in 2012 and the state didn't get called until a lot later than it should have been.

Uh, 2012? Most networks (although not all) called MS immediately in 2012. You may be thinking of 2008, when it did take about two hours to call.

Only if the Republican nominee is horrible.

So any Republican candidate?

No. A really bad one. Even a Cruz, Santorum, or Huckabee can carry louisiana by a high-single-digit to very-low-double-digit margin. The republicans would have to nominate someone like Carson, Palin, or Tancredo to be in serious trouble in louisiana, and even that might not be enough.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm going to lean no under normal circumstances.  Of course, we said the same thing about Mississippi in 2012 and the state didn't get called until a lot later than it should have been.

Uh, 2012? Most networks (although not all) called MS immediately in 2012. You may be thinking of 2008, when it did take about two hours to call.

Has it really been that long?  Time flies!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm going to lean no under normal circumstances.  Of course, we said the same thing about Mississippi in 2012 and the state didn't get called until a lot later than it should have been.

Uh, 2012? Most networks (although not all) called MS immediately in 2012. You may be thinking of 2008, when it did take about two hours to call.

Has it really been that long?  Time flies!

It certainly does.

Granted, mississippi wasn't exactly that close that year (McCain +13.2). It was just that networks avoided calling states for McCain like it would give them the plague, even giving delays of various lengths to states such as AR, TX, WV, and LA despite all four going for McCain by double digits.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Los Angeles is fairly safe D.