Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014

[Platypus]

Just a quick note on the East-West link. I think a lot of people like the idea of it, probably a significant majority. You lose some of that support when it's presented as an either/or with th metro rail project, with the understanding that only one of the two can be afforded, and you lose further still by the fact it will be a toll road and the tolls are not yet known.

Personally, I thik it should be built, but not as a toll road. One of the best competitive advantages Melbourne has over Sydney is the ease of movement around the city, largely without dividing us with toll roads. At present, the toll roads we do have are more convenience routes than primary routes, and while you can still go overland for free if the E/W link is built, just as you can go most of the citylink route without paying tolls if you're OK with traffic lights, the changes proposed for when the tunnel is built will make it harder than it already is - and driving across the top of Melbourne is already an absolutely nightmare most of the time. I really don't think that's wise.

That said, it is a nightmare through there, and something needs to be done. If the only way to afford it is tolls, then that's still better than nothing. But surely there has to be another way.

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As for my vote, now to be cast in the returning seat of Werribee (kind of disappointed not to be voting in Albert Park, much higher calibre of candidates), I've done my candidate checklist, and I have it all sorted. Lower house Labor/Greens 1/2 or vice versa, probably Labor 1st, then Liberal, Australian Christians, and 'Voice for the West'.

Upper house I first sent all those who live outside the Western Metro region down to the bottom of the list of 40-something. There is no excuse that with 11 seats to choose candidates from, the ALP is running a guy from Northcote in an unlikely but possible third position on their ticket.

Then there are the parties that I want nothing to do with - Rise Up Australia etc. - followed by people who I just really don't want to see in parliament. So the top two candidates for Labor, Cesar Melhem (possibly the most wretched knobhead in the state) and Khalil Eideh (better only by comparison) are turfed out, along with a few of the more bizarre minor candidates, and Bernie Finn, the first Liberal, who is kind of OKlahoma conservative in a region that is unerringly ALP at the lower level).

After that it's a bit of a cull of the rest of Labor, the Libs, and the Greens, cos it's pretty much locked in that we'll end up with 2 ALP, 2 Coalition, and 1 Green and none of the 5 who will get in are all that remarkable. The second Liberal gets highest on the list of the five current members, partly because he seems reasonably competent and benign, and partly because if any of the five seats do fall it's probably his, and to someone like the DLP, PUP or whatever, and also that having Bernie Finn as the only voice form the right for the whole of the West of Melbourne is an appalling prospect.

Then the seem-like-good-people-running-for-good-causes people, ending wit a number one for Vicki Nash from the Sex Party

Also the lead PUP candidate actually seems like a thoroughly good candidate and a potentially excellent member, but I just can't get on board that trainwreck of a vanity party.

[Smid]

East West Link isn't either/or with a new Melbourne Metro Rail Link, though: Stage 1 of EWL was announced in the 2013/14 Budget, Stage 2 of EWL was announced in the 2014/15 Budget, as was a Melbourne Metro Rail Link. This rail link will run from South Yarra through new stations at St Kilda Road (Domain) and Montague Street in the urban renewal zone, before joining the City Loop at Southern Cross. This increases capacity of the City Loop by more than the other option, and provides an opportunity for a rail line to the airport. It also minimises disturbance to CBD businesses, than tearing up Swanston Street.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My thinking is getting muddied.

Morgan was the ONLY pollster to pick up the late surge to Bracks in 1999 and he's showed a pretty inexplicable 5% swing to the Coalition in the period of just over a week... frankly, that seems like the impacts of a methodological change.

As expected, the 56-55-54s are gone, once the campaign started, they were always going to.

I will do a final prediction tomorrow sometime... but

TPP
ALP: 51.9%
Coaltion: 48.1%

Seat count
ALP: 47
Coalition: 41

[morgieb]

Macedon - possibly too big of a hurdle for the Liberals in this climate, but with a retiring MP, some pre-selection controversies, and a popular Liberal candidate who managed a 9% swing in the federal election this could be very interesting.
Malvern - safest Coalition seat in Melbourne.
Melbourne - very interesting. This is probably the Greens best chance of winning a seat. Liberal preferences will be important (and probably decide the seat), but given the Greens didn't win the 2012 by-election, I'm not super confident in their hopes.
Melton - safe Labor. Interestingly there was little swing here in 2010.
Mildura - safe Nationals, though this is the sort of place where local independents can play well.
Mill Park - safe Labor.
Monbulk - notionally Liberal held but has a sitting Labor MP. Expect him to win the seat, particularly given a fair chunk of the seat came from a seat with the sophmore surge.
Mordialloc - one of the sandbelt seats that will decide the election. I think Labor will win it back narrowly.
Mornington - safe Liberal.
Morwell - on paper safe National. However, the mining fire factor can't help the Coalition here....the seat was Labor held from 1970-2006 (so there's clearly a good base for Labor here) and there's a strong local independent here. Hard to call but Labor's candidate doesn't seem particularly strong and the swing to win seems out of reach for Labor.
Mount Waverley - another middle-class Eastern suburbs district that Labor held during the Bracks year but flipped back in the last election. With the sitting MP benefiting from a sophmore surge it will likely remain Liberal.
Mulgrave - techincally marginal, but given that the new areas were effectively uncontested by Labor and the profile of the sitting MP, expect this to swing hard to Labor.
Murray Plains - safest Coalition seat in the state. Labor didn't even reach 20% here in the last state election.
Narracan - safe Liberal, but an above-average swing should be expected here as Labor have underperformed quite badly in the Latrobe Valley recently and local issues don't favour the Coalition.
Narre Warren North - marginal-ish on paper, but in practice this district probably won't flip this election.
Narre Warren South - safer of the two Narre Warren's, it should remain Labor.
Nepean - safe Liberal. The Greens candidate's name is pretty unfortunate - Craig Thomson.
Niddrie - see Narre Warren North.
Northcote - this district is still fairly solidly Labor even against the Greens. Probably won't become endangered for a while.
Oakleigh - the sitting MP is retiring, but at this election it is hard to see this district flipping.
Ovens Valley - safe Nationals
Pascoe Vale - safe Labor.
Polwarth - safe Liberal.
Prahran - probably depends on whether the Liberal MP has behaved like a moderate. Will be tough but given a sophmore surge if he has legislated well he should hold on.
Preston - safe Labor. May be interesting to see if the Greens overtake the Liberals here, but it won't effect the status of the seat.
Richmond - the other seat (along with Melbourne) that the Greens are apparently winning. But the polling company doing it does not have a good track record, and given preferencing decisions it will be hard for the Greens to get over the line to win it.
Ringwood - with the Liberals winning here in 2010 expect a sophmore surge. Given the redistribution expect the Coalition to hang on.
Ripon - Labor-held seat now notionally Liberal-held. Demographically this is a tough ask for Labor....particularly given the local MP is retiring so expect the Coalition to win it back. Only question is will the Liberals or the Nationals win? The Liberal candidate isn't really a great fit for the seat, and the National candidate does have a strong local following, but will the Nationals spend enough money here?
Rowville - safe Liberal. Once upon a time Labor were competitive here, but the area in general has changed fairly significantly in the last 20 years.
Sandringham - safe Liberal.
Shepparton - safe National. Again one could be surprised that there isn't a three-cornered contest here.
South Barwon - a new personal vote for the sitting Liberal MP should see them hang on, particularly given the swing won't have as much venom now as what one may have feared a while ago.
South-West Coast - Napthine's seat. Safe Liberal in all bar their worst years.
St Albans - safe Labor.
Sunbury - new seat. Would be interesting for the Liberals in a better year, but as it is it should remain in Labor's hands.
Sydenham - safe Labor. This is the district where the Liberal candidate withdrew.
Tarneit - safe Labor. Interestingly the new candidate here represented a seat with little in common with this one, so there could be a swing towards the Coalition here.
Thomastown - Labor's safest seat in Victoria. Another seat where the Liberal candidate withdrew.
Warrandyte - safe Liberal.
Wendouree - notionally Liberal-held, but the seat is uber-marginal, the new Labor MP should get a personal vote and the swing is in Labor's direction. I don't see how the Liberals hang on here.
Werribee - safe Labor.
Williamstown - safe Labor.
Yan Yean - notionally Liberal, but given how marginal the seat is and the fact that the sitting MP is in the ALP, it should go to Labor.
Yuroke - safe Labor.

[Knives]

I voted, first time ever!

[Platypus]

Electorate names are in the colour of the current party that holds the seat.

Albert Park - My former home turf. Martin Foley should never feel completely comfortable, but he will be re-elected here. Quick nod to the Libs for putting up a very high quality candidate for the second election in a row. This is the kind of seat that is no longer Labor heartland, but will never be Liberal heartland either. I'd say it and Prahran are almost brotherly seats, with Albert Park the more lefty of the pair. Still, it feels like in future it will be a more marginal seat, although once Fisherman's Bend is developed and this seat shifts to cover more Elwood-St Kilda-Sth Melbourne-Middle Park-Albert Park-as much as is required of Port Melbourne, it might actually be good news for the ALP. Elwood is Labor friendly, and while the western fringes of Port Melbourne are too, Southbank is not particularly and there's no reason to think that Port Melbourne's rapidly collapsing ALP vote will abate in the near future. Anyway, enough waffle. ALP[/]b 1-0-0

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Just as I was about to move on, I got a call to work the election. Past political posts are fine, but I can't comment anything as of now until it's all done and dusted. Im going to bend the rules and post the Albert Park writeup cos it was written beforehand

[Knives]

As I went in to vote Dee Ryall tried to win my vote and I gave her a spray about the government's anti-union tactics and how Australia is only successful because of our egalitarian past. She didn't expect that from an 18 year old.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I'll post my predictions sometime in the next 12 hours, better late than never!

[Smid]

I can't comment, but there are some very interesting things happening in some very interesting seats.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I can't comment, but there are some very interesting things happening in some very interesting seats.

I'm hearing the same things. But this was never going to be a uniform-swing election. It's not going to be clear cut.

[Knives]

Guys what are you hearing!? I wanna know

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Guys what are you hearing!? I wanna know

While I think our sources are from different camps ... what I will say is that the seat count will likely be quite tight. There's a lot of local campaigns. Some seats the ALP had in the bag a month ago have shifted back to the Libs. The results are going to be all over the place.

[Hifly]

Polnut's info is usually very unreliable (remember 2013...), but yes, there will be a wide variety of swings and the Liberals will pick up at least one ALP held seat.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polnut's info is usually very unreliable (remember 2013...), but yes, there will be a wide variety of swings and the Liberals will pick up at least one ALP held seat.

Oh, you're back. You can hang your hat on that for as long as you like. But my info had been correct more than it's been off.

[Hifly]

I love you really.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I love you really.

Don't you have to whip yourself for even thinking such things?

[Knives]

This is brilliant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77QDIFTjMpk

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Okay, here we go, my (even later than I thought) predictions:

46-33-9

Albert Park      ALP
Altona              ALP
Bass                      LIB
Bayswater              LIB
Bellarine              ALP
Benambra              LIB
Bendigo East      ALP
Bendigo West      ALP
Bentleigh         LIB
Box Hill         LIB
Brighton         LIB
Broadmeadows      ALP
Brunswick         ALP
Bulleen         LIB
Bundoora         ALP
Buninyong      ALP
Burwood         LIB
Carrum         LIB
Caulfield         LIB
Clarinda         ALP
Cranbourne      ALP
Croydon         LIB
Dandenong      ALP
Elidon         LIB
Eltham         ALP
Essendon         ALP
Euroa         NAT
Evelyn         LIB
Ferntree Gully      LIB
Footscray         ALP
Forest Hill         LIB
Frankston         ALP
Geelong         ALP
Gembrook         LIB
Gippsland East      NAT
Gippsland South   NAT
Hastings         LIB
Hawthorn         LIB
Ivanhoe         ALP
Kew            LIB
Keysborough      ALP
Kororoit         ALP
Lara            ALP
Lowan         NAT
Macedon         ALP
Malvern         LIB
Melbourne         ALP
Melton         ALP
Mildura         NAT
Mill Park         ALP
Monbulk         ALP
Mordialloc         ALP
Mornington      LIB
Morwell         NAT
Mount Waverley   LIB
Mulgrave         ALP
Murray Plains      NAT
Narracan         LIB
Narre Warren North   ALP
Narre Warren South   ALP
Nepean         LIB
Niddrie         ALP
Northcote         ALP
Oakleigh         ALP
Ovens Valley      NAT
Pascoe Vale      ALP
Polwarth         LIB
Prahran         LIB
Preston         ALP
Richmond         ALP
Ringwood         LIB
Ripon         LIB
Rowville         LIB
Sandringham      LIB
Shepparton      NAT
South Barwon      LIB
South-West Coast   LIB
St Albans         ALP
Sunbury         ALP
Sydenham      ALP
Tarneit         ALP
Thomastown      ALP
Warrandyte      LIB
Wendouree      ALP
Werribee         ALP
Williamstown      ALP
Yan Yean         ALP
Yuroke         ALP

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

...wait. Farage? really?

We're actually not that far apart on our predictions.

I'm still thinking the ALP will be on 48-47... having a hard time, as is everyone, with the sandbelt.

[Smid]

I can't comment, but there are some very interesting things happening in some very interesting seats.

I'm hearing the same things. But this was never going to be a uniform-swing election. It's not going to be clear cut.

When I read this, I agreed, but your comment on the sandbelt in a subsequent post threw me: you must be hearing things about other electorates to me, I can call the sandbelt with confidence, it is a few of the other seats that I am having to guess. I know a couple which have moved towards us outside the sandbelt, and know they are tight, but for me, it is pure speculation as to whether it is tight but in front, or tight but behind. Other than "hearing the same things", I agree, not uniform swing, etc.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I can't comment, but there are some very interesting things happening in some very interesting seats.

I'm hearing the same things. But this was never going to be a uniform-swing election. It's not going to be clear cut.

When I read this, I agreed, but your comment on the sandbelt in a subsequent post threw me: you must be hearing things about other electorates to me, I can call the sandbelt with confidence, it is a few of the other seats that I am having to guess. I know a couple which have moved towards us outside the sandbelt, and know they are tight, but for me, it is pure speculation as to whether it is tight but in front, or tight but behind. Other than "hearing the same things", I agree, not uniform swing, etc.

They're slightly different comments and not directly connected. The discussion I've heard is not about the sandbelt... that's only my own thinking. That's a part of Victoria I don't know well.

Meh, I'm content with my prediction from yesterday. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The results coming in are... interesting. ALP seemingly doing quite well where they need to be.

State-wide swing of around 3% at the moment, with the ALP doing quite well seat-wise.

[Knives]

Looking good!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There are some very weird numbers coming out of Shepparton and Prahran...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, I'm calling it.

ALP has won.