Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014
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  Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014
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Author Topic: Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014  (Read 13236 times)
Barnes
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« on: June 27, 2014, 09:20:43 PM »

With the state election in Victoria do in almost five months, I think it's high time we establish a thread for action. Grin

For those who might not be aware, the current government is lead by Premier Denis Napthine (Lib - South-West Coast).  Prior to March 2013, the government held a majority of one (44 to 43, with a Liberal serving as Speaker, Ken Smith) over Labor.  The government has been in minority since 6 March 2013 when Geoff Shaw (Lib - Frankston) left the Liberal whip and sat as an independent; perhaps not so coincidentally, this occurred on the same day as Napthine taking over as Liberal leader and Premier.  Shaw initially promised to support the Coalition on confidence and supply measures, effectively retaining their one-seat majority. 

This situation really began to fall apart last November (if I remember correctly) when Shaw stated he no longer had confidence in the Speaker, eventually leading to Smith's resignation in February.  Around this time, Shaw became embroiled in an expenses scandal involving his official car and effectively broke ties with the Coalition. 

This past month, Labor, led by Daniel Andrews (Mulgrave) attempted to expell Shaw from the Parliament - something not done in over one hundred years in Victoria.  Shaw didn't attend the debate on the motion, and it tied 42-42 with the new Speaker, Christine Fyffe, voting against the motion; subsequently the Assembly voted to suspend Shaw for 11 sitting days.

This has effectively denied the Coalition the ability to pass legislation through the Assembly on its own - making it dependent on either the Speaker's tie-breaking vote (which is heavily dictated by precedent and convention) or on the opposition.  Seeing as Victoria has fixed four-year parliamentary terms, a snap election is nearly impossible.

Suffice it to say, the constitutional crisis did no favors to Napthine in the polls, but the single biggest blow to the Coalition's standing has been how wildly unpopular the federal government has become in Victoria.  This article from "The Age" describes the situation very well: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-is-no-jewel-in-the-liberal-crown-as-the-victorian-election-nears-20140627-zsoh9.html

An average of recent polling has shown Labor in a large lead on 2PP, (56 to 44), and then develops an enormous advantage when preference flows are allocated (59 to 41).  If this polling holds until November, the Coalition government will be the first to one-term government to loose re-election since 1955.

All in all, it's going to be a very exciting time down under. Wink



As an addendum, here's a layout of the previous election, and the composition of Parliament.

2010 State election - Assembly
Liberal: 38.03% - 35 seats (+3.59 %, +12 seats)
Labor: 36.25% - 43 seats (-6.81%, -12 seats)
Greens: 11.21% - 0 seats (+1.17%)
National: 6.75% - 10 seats (+1.58%, +1 seat)
Family First: 2.29% - 0 seats (-2.00%)
Others: 5.54% (-1 seat)

Two-Party Preferred
Coalition: 51.58% - 45 seats (+5.97%)
Labor: 48.42% - 43 seats (-5.97%)

The current composition of the Legislative Council is:
Liberal: 18 seats
National: 3 seats
Labor: 16 seats
Greens: 3 seats
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Frodo
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2014, 04:32:31 PM »

This poll is from a month ago, and none of us thought to post it?
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Napthine’s Coalition government set for Victorian election defeat, Newspoll shows

Oliver Milman
theguardian.com, Sunday 24 August 2014 20.05 EDT


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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2014, 04:41:53 PM »

I suppose everyone thinks it's a forgone conclusion, what with Abbott in charge. Vic Labor seems to be cruising in with very little effort on their part. (but then again, they are part of the Australian Labor Party, so I'm sure they can find a way to screw things up somehow)

I'm mainly interested to see if Greens can win their target seats in hipster Melbourne (like Melbourne and Brunswick).
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Smid
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2014, 04:17:08 AM »



And blank map in Gallery. This version is based on vote at the last election, and doesn't reflect the partisan position of the incumbent Member, and specifically excludes party changes due to Members of Parliament not being a Member of the party to which they belonged at the last election. The blank map has several colour scale options, however this map is a simple Coalition Government vs Labor Opposition.

I'm not commenting further in this thread, but the initial post has a few factual errors (for example, in the past month, it was the Opposition that voted against expelling the Member for Frankston).
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2014, 05:37:44 AM »

I certainly don't think Labor needs to cruise at all. I think the thing about the uniformity of the swings, is that there won't be much uniformity.

At the moment, I'm thinking the ALP gets a decent TPP, 52-48-ish but only swings 4-7 seats in the final analysis.
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Hifly
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2014, 05:55:13 AM »

Labor is in serious danger of losing a couple of its own seats thanks to dodgy candidates (see Macedon).

I wonder if Geoff Shaw will manage more than 7% of the vote.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2014, 12:21:32 PM »

It looks as if the Labour Party will come to regret their promise to tear up the contracts for the East-West Link:

Road project promise threatens Victorian Labor’s election lead

John Ferguson
Victorian Political Editor, Melbourne
THE AUSTRALIAN
OCTOBER 10, 2014 12:00AM


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Hifly
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2014, 12:33:33 PM »

Labor have already conceded the rural seat of Ripon, being vacated by popular MP Joe Helper who is not seeking re-election and moving to the Upper House.

It is imperative for the Victorian Pro-Life movement that Labor holds the marginal (now notionally Liberal after redistribution) seat of Monbulk in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, held by Deputy Opposition Leader James Merlino.
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Frodo
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« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2014, 10:49:22 AM »

Victorian State Election: Greens lead in inner city seats, new poll says

November 7, 2014
Richard Willingham and Henrietta Cook


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Knives
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2014, 09:18:42 AM »

Looks like Geoff Shaw is going to preference the Liberals. It's kind of ridiculous that he could end up retaining his seats, surely those in Frankston aren't that dumb.
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Frodo
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2014, 05:38:12 PM »

Victoria election 2014: Almost half of voters support East West Link toll road, Vote Compass reveals
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Knives
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2014, 07:23:51 PM »

ugh, last day to vote and over 200 000 remain unregistered. We really need to adopt same day registration.
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Barnes
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2014, 05:15:50 PM »

Glad to see that my thread got revived! Cheesy

It's fascinating to observe the trends in Australia over the past several years: you start out in 2008 with Labor in control of the federal government and every state/territory gov't as well.  That slowly whittles away to what we have now with a Coalition calling the shots federally and only a minority Labor gov't in SA and the ACT.  If Labor is able to win in Victoria could this be the beginning of another sea change?
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Knives
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2014, 05:22:02 PM »

Glad to see that my thread got revived! Cheesy

It's fascinating to observe the trends in Australia over the past several years: you start out in 2008 with Labor in control of the federal government and every state/territory gov't as well.  That slowly whittles away to what we have now with a Coalition calling the shots federally and only a minority Labor gov't in SA and the ACT.  If Labor is able to win in Victoria could this be the beginning of another sea change?

There's definately a move against the Liberals atm. I almost always happens, I mean following Howard almost every state government from Howard to Rudd was a Labor one. But if the Vic Libs lose it'll be pretty historic considering no state government has not had a second term since like the 50s. But it'll be there own fault, they're pretty useless and got almost nothing done in 2010-2012.
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Barnes
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2014, 05:28:00 PM »

The fact that this could be the first time a one-term government has been defeated in Victoria since 1955 will be notable in itself.

Personally, I don't think Labor's rosy polls will hold out the way they look now - I'm banking on a 52% TPP for them.  Of course, that would be more than enough if the swing is uniform, and there's no guarantee it will be.
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2014, 05:52:52 PM »

Glad to see that my thread got revived! Cheesy

It's fascinating to observe the trends in Australia over the past several years: you start out in 2008 with Labor in control of the federal government and every state/territory gov't as well.  That slowly whittles away to what we have now with a Coalition calling the shots federally and only a minority Labor gov't in SA and the ACT.  If Labor is able to win in Victoria could this be the beginning of another sea change?

Well, the scale of the defeats in Queensland and NSW mean it is unlikely for Labor to dislodge them from power (although Queensland is showing some polls with Labour ahead; and both states will regain the left-right equilibrium that was lost before).

West Australia's next election is after the next general election funnily enough. Barnett's administration was underwater for a while, but seems to have (kinda) recovered with the cessation of problematic elements. The Greens are polling strangely well in WA, considering the state.

ACT's next election will probably be a wash for both the ALP and Greens for obvious reasons; while the Northern Territory's Liberals seem to be underdogs for reelection.


Unrelated, I wonder if the "Preferences Whisperer" will make his magic in this election?
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Knives
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« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2014, 04:24:29 AM »

Well Dennis Napthine is preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens, this is pretty big if the Greens wanted to win those seats. It'll be close but I do think the Greens could win but its very unlikely.
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Knives
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2014, 08:10:55 PM »

Labor up to 56% in most recent Ipsos poll. Incredible thing out of the poll though is the 76% support for Euthanasia, lol  you Kevin Andrews.
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morgieb
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« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2014, 10:23:33 PM »

Labor up to 56% in most recent Ipsos poll. Incredible thing out of the poll though is the 76% support for Euthanasia, lol  you Kevin Andrews.
Worth noting that the "56%" would be 53% under the more accepted way of preference flows.
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Knives
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« Reply #19 on: November 19, 2014, 07:31:54 PM »

Some of the ads this election are just ridiculous and downright insulting to our intelligence. I mean a Coalition ad literally called in a Labor CMFEU Coaltion if Labor is elected. Like, just the dumbest attack and the sad thing is it'll probably stick with some voters. Also, the focus on abortion this election is scary despite the high level approval of our laws.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: November 23, 2014, 07:18:46 AM »

Less than a week to go! Place your bets.

I'll do something more thorough later in the week. But my view has not changed for the last few months. I think the TPP will be a pretty comfortable 52-53% for the ALP, but that a win of that size won't be reflected in the seat count. I cannot see the ALP going beyond 50 seats, I think somewhere around 46-48.

This will be down to some very weird local dynamics.
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Knives
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« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2014, 07:47:30 AM »

ALP will win popular vote like 53/47 but lose in seats or a minority government.
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morgieb
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« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2014, 06:13:23 AM »

Some attempts at predictions (WARNING: I don't know that much about non-NSW state politics)

A-L (M-Z will come tomorrow)

Albert Park - potentially interesting, but it's probably not the right year for the Liberals to win this race. I'll be interested to see how cruel Port Philip is.
Altona - Julia Gillard land. Safe Labor of course.
Bass - solidly Liberal, but Labor went close here in 2002....this isn't 2002 though Tongue
Bayswater - the redistrubtion has made this more marginal...Labor would've won it in 2006 under the current boundaries. Probably a Liberal hold though.
Bellarine - incumbency and a general swing should save Neville here.
Benambra - safe Liberal. Although looking at the seat, this seat probably should be a National one.
Bendigo East - probably should be a Labor hold, although it is interesting to note that there was basically no Liberal swing here.
Bendigo West - again expect it to remain in Labor's hands. Labor will also benefit from a partial sophmore surge here.
Bentleigh - will be interesting. On paper should be a Labor gain, but the MP here will get a sophmore surge....and my spies seem to suggest that the Liberals are reasonably confident here.
Box Hill - pretty solidly Liberal, although under the new boundaries this would apparently be a Labor win in 2002.
Brighton - the best Liberal bit of the Port Philip coast. Safe Liberal.
Broadmeadows - John Brumby's old seat, and now held by the older brother of noted d**khead Eddie McGuire. Safe Labor o/c.
Brunswick - apparently the polling looks good for the Greens, but I'm not convinced. They won't get Liberal preferences and there will be a partial sophmore surge here. It will be close, but I'd expect Labor to hold on....the factors that saw Bandt defy preferences and win Melbourne in 2013 aren't relevant here (i.e. there's no sitting member here)
Bulleen - Kevin Andrews land. Safe Liberal.
Bundoora - safe Labor I'd imagine.
Buninyong - given that the Nats are apparently having an open ticket for HTV purposes, Labor should hang on here.
Burwood - this district seems rather volatile, but given that the MP will get a sophmore surge and that the margin looks fairly safe, the Liberals should hold.
Carrum - part of the 'sandbelt' seats that are must win for both parties. Will be tough for Bauer to hold her, but her local profile is strong and she will get a sophmore surge.
Caulfield - the Jewish belt, this district has probably saved Labor's arse in Melbourne Ports federally. However at the state level it is safe Liberal.
Clarinda - safe Labor.
Cranbourne - a marginal district, but in this climate it should be retained by Labor. BTW, I love the Greens candidate from 2010's name....a ex-James Bond character and the pen name a former Crikey writer.
Croydon - safe Liberal, but like a lot of the middle class Eastern suburbs districts, it was Labor held in 2002.
Dandenong - it's Dandenong. Safe Labor.
Eildon - the redistribution has made this once crucial seat safe Liberal.
Eltham - looked close early on, as it is Labor's most marginal seat and the sitting MP is moving to the Upper House, but the general swing to Labor and some scandals around the Liberal candidate should see this be a hold.
Essendon - while the seat is marginal on paper, it generally only goes Liberal in very bad elections (though that still makes it very safe Liberal by the standards of Melbourne North-West Tongue). I wonder if the big swing here was down to Madden turncoating from Essendon to Carlton.
Euroa - this district is actually a lot tighter now since the redistribution (though still safe Coalition). More interesting is the fact there's a three-cornered contest, and that the National candidate isn't really great as a local candidate. The Nationals need this seat more than the Liberals do though, so they should hang on.
Evelyn - another middle-class Eastern suburbs seat that is safe Liberal except in landslides.
Ferntree Gully - ditto.
Footscray - the sort of seat that may be competitive in about 10-20 years, but for now Labor is probably safe from a Greens challenge. Interestingly quite a few reputable independents running here.
Forest Hill - although this seat is marginal, the swing here was rather subuded in 2010, so with a sophmore surge this is probably safe for now.
Frankston - Geoff Shaw's seat. He'll poll Thomson/Slipper levels most likely. Given his misadventures it's hard to see the Liberals winning the seat given how marginal it is, and general discontent with the Liberal government among the sandbelt seats.
Geelong - although Geelong has a reputation of being a poor bogan area (so safe Labor), there are some areas in Geelong that are rather swingy. Given the loss of the MP in the wrong year it might be hard for Labor to hold, but as it is it should be safe.
Gembrook - another formerly Labor held Eastern suburbs district that should be safe for the Liberals this election.
Gippsland East - with Ingram gone, the Gippsland seats will remain National for the forseeable future.
Gippsland South - safe National o/c
Hastings - similar to most of the middle-class Eastern suburbs districts in terms of how they vote, but this district is more rural. Again for this election it is safe Liberal.
Hawthorn - Ted Ballieu's old seat. Yeah, safe Liberal.
Ivanhoe - should be a Labor hold given the general trend. BTW, the demographics of this district is very atypical of how the seat actually votes.
Kew - another safe Liberal seat in the mid-East. Yawn...
Keysborough - should be safe Labor, but the by-election here was pretty bad for Labor. Still I can't imagine this being the right election for this to flip.
Kororoit - another uber-safe Labor seat in the North-West of Melbourne.
Lara - the better Labor bits in Geelong. Safe Labor.
Lowan - safe Nationals. BTW, I'm surprised there isn't a three cornered contest here.
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Platypus
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« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2014, 06:40:52 PM »

The early voting hours are ridiculous.

Not being able to vote between the Saturday and Thursday of election week is bloody stupid. I assume it's about being cost effective but once you open early voting, it really should be available every day until the election, especially every day of the week before it.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2014, 07:05:46 PM »

I'm thinking the TPP vote will be around 50-51% Labor, with Labor struggling to win an outright majority or doing so very narrowly.

I'll probably be wildly off though.
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