Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014

[Smid]

Those Melbourne maps were from 2010. They were only just released under my own version of the Cabinet-in-Confidence 30-year rule.

[Talleyrand]

Those Melbourne maps were from 2010. They were only just released under my own version of the Cabinet-in-Confidence 30-year rule.

Ah, okay. And they were for L.C. results too. I didn't read the text-box until now.

[Smid]

Those Melbourne maps were from 2010. They were only just released under my own version of the Cabinet-in-Confidence 30-year rule.

Ah, okay. And they were for L.C. results too. I didn't read the text-box until now.

The primary vote ones are Leg Council. The 2CP are Leg Assembly - they don't allocate Council preferences by booth, and Council 2CP would be meaningless. It is, however, a better indicator of "pure" party vote for various reasons (the most significant being that the vast majority are Above-the-Line party votes, plus the generally low profile of Upper House MPs relative to Lower House MPs, male them an effective tool for stripping out the effect of a popular and well-known incumbent, but not to ignore the fact that it is common knowledge that minor parties have a greater chance of winning so people are more likely to vote for them, plus it removes the effect of a well-known independent in a single Assembly district, plus any independent or minor party is on the Leg Council ballot in at least eleven contiguous Assembly districts, plus the larger number of party options reduces the proportion of minor/micro party voters allocating a first preference for a major party... In short, a major party's primary vote in the Upper House is a better indicator of party vote, than a similar value from Lower House results).

[Talleyrand]

Thanks, that explains a lot; now I wish we had Senate primary votes for each House of Representatives Division on hand somewhere. I recall reading somewhere before the 2013 federal election about how high Joanna Gash's personal vote was, evidenced by how Labor actually outperformed in the Senate in Gilmore. Gives so some insight into why that was a rare seat to swing away from the Coalition that year once she retired. I wonder what other examples exist akin to that one.

[Smid]

Thanks, that explains a lot; now I wish we had Senate primary votes for each House of Representatives Division on hand somewhere. I recall reading somewhere before the 2013 federal election about how high Joanna Gash's personal vote was, evidenced by how Labor actually outperformed in the Senate in Gilmore. Gives so some insight into why that was a rare seat to swing away from the Coalition that year once she retired. I wonder what other examples exist akin to that one.

I was of the opinion that a Senate map was on here, but it may have been 2010. The data is not hard to obtain. PM me your email address if you want me to send you what I can find.