Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I certainly don't think Labor needs to cruise at all. I think the thing about the uniformity of the swings, is that there won't be much uniformity.

At the moment, I'm thinking the ALP gets a decent TPP, 52-48-ish but only swings 4-7 seats in the final analysis.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Less than a week to go! Place your bets.

I'll do something more thorough later in the week. But my view has not changed for the last few months. I think the TPP will be a pretty comfortable 52-53% for the ALP, but that a win of that size won't be reflected in the seat count. I cannot see the ALP going beyond 50 seats, I think somewhere around 46-48.

This will be down to some very weird local dynamics.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My thinking is getting muddied.

Morgan was the ONLY pollster to pick up the late surge to Bracks in 1999 and he's showed a pretty inexplicable 5% swing to the Coalition in the period of just over a week... frankly, that seems like the impacts of a methodological change.

As expected, the 56-55-54s are gone, once the campaign started, they were always going to.

I will do a final prediction tomorrow sometime... but

TPP
ALP: 51.9%
Coaltion: 48.1%

Seat count
ALP: 47
Coalition: 41

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I can't comment, but there are some very interesting things happening in some very interesting seats.

I'm hearing the same things. But this was never going to be a uniform-swing election. It's not going to be clear cut.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Guys what are you hearing!? I wanna know

While I think our sources are from different camps ... what I will say is that the seat count will likely be quite tight. There's a lot of local campaigns. Some seats the ALP had in the bag a month ago have shifted back to the Libs. The results are going to be all over the place.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Polnut's info is usually very unreliable (remember 2013...), but yes, there will be a wide variety of swings and the Liberals will pick up at least one ALP held seat.

Oh, you're back. You can hang your hat on that for as long as you like. But my info had been correct more than it's been off.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I love you really.

Don't you have to whip yourself for even thinking such things?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

...wait. Farage? really?

We're actually not that far apart on our predictions.

I'm still thinking the ALP will be on 48-47... having a hard time, as is everyone, with the sandbelt.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I can't comment, but there are some very interesting things happening in some very interesting seats.

I'm hearing the same things. But this was never going to be a uniform-swing election. It's not going to be clear cut.

When I read this, I agreed, but your comment on the sandbelt in a subsequent post threw me: you must be hearing things about other electorates to me, I can call the sandbelt with confidence, it is a few of the other seats that I am having to guess. I know a couple which have moved towards us outside the sandbelt, and know they are tight, but for me, it is pure speculation as to whether it is tight but in front, or tight but behind. Other than "hearing the same things", I agree, not uniform swing, etc.

They're slightly different comments and not directly connected. The discussion I've heard is not about the sandbelt... that's only my own thinking. That's a part of Victoria I don't know well.

Meh, I'm content with my prediction from yesterday. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The results coming in are... interesting. ALP seemingly doing quite well where they need to be.

State-wide swing of around 3% at the moment, with the ALP doing quite well seat-wise.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There are some very weird numbers coming out of Shepparton and Prahran...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, I'm calling it.

ALP has won.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At the moment... it looks like the Greens will indeed win Melbourne, based off a stonking primary vote of 44%.

But the ALP hasn't lost a seat so far to the Libs but has probably lost one or two to the Greens.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

All of the candidates who might win Prahran are awful. There's around a 50 vote gap between Labor and the Greens so this one is going to take a while.
But the overall election is a convincing Labor victory.
Only Ripon was lost to the Libs.

Why's that? You do understand the area don't you?

No candidate you'd like could possibly win in Prahran.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh, I see hifly issue. A gay Labor candidate, a Green candidate adversizing on Grindr and a pro-gay rights Liberal. Would that division cover the gay neighbourhood of Melbourne?

That's kind of what I was alluding to.

You cannot win that seat and be anti-gay rights. Pure and simple.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Not a great day for my side of politics, I expected Labor to win, but by a slightly smaller margin and also surprised that Mulgrave did not swing that strongly to Labor either.

Also, what happened in Shepparton?

Shepparton was one of the seats I was told to watch. The ALP knew they had no chance, but that the pretty visible Independent had been learning a lot from Cathy McGowan's win at the Federal level in Indi. But I still found it odd that she actually won so cleanly.

Overall, what seems to have been unexpected, at least from the perspective of the people I spoke to, was how emphatic some of the wins, especially those around Geelong and Ballarat were (South Barwon and Rippon were always going to be very tough for the ALP).

And as the NSW experiment shows, having the Hunters and Shooters in control of the Upper House is NEVER a good thing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is the overall two party-preferred vote at this point?

It's somewhere around 52-48.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And as the NSW experiment shows, having the Hunters and Shooters in control of the Upper House is NEVER a good thing.

Why? Didn't they achieve some significant progress in gun rights?

By your definition, yes. By mine, they helped regress them. Plus there are no 'gun rights' in Australia. Thanks be.

Plus they cornered O'Farrell into initially permitting guns into National Parks. Which showed a) they're terrible and b) O'Farrell was weak.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Greens lead in Melbourne is down to .74% with 52% counted, I can't believe they claimed it last night. Will be funny if they lose.

But it also looks like the Libs may claw Prahran back... off the back of Green preferences. It is the nature of these seats, affluent, but socially progressive.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yup the VEC has declared the Greens as having won Prahran

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What a disastrous campaign for Labor in this seat, coming third in a seat they held until the last election! Hopefully they'll choose a proper candidate next time.

Bit melodramatic.

Labor has held this seat for 16 out of the last 59 years... so it's not like this is Labor heartland. Plus this is a seat that has had a strong Greens presence for a number of years. So considering the surge around Melbourne to the Greens at the expense of Labor... it's hardly shocking.