Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014

[Smid]

And blank map in Gallery. This version is based on vote at the last election, and doesn't reflect the partisan position of the incumbent Member, and specifically excludes party changes due to Members of Parliament not being a Member of the party to which they belonged at the last election. The blank map has several colour scale options, however this map is a simple Coalition Government vs Labor Opposition.

I'm not commenting further in this thread, but the initial post has a few factual errors (for example, in the past month, it was the Opposition that voted against expelling the Member for Frankston).

[Smid]

East West Link isn't either/or with a new Melbourne Metro Rail Link, though: Stage 1 of EWL was announced in the 2013/14 Budget, Stage 2 of EWL was announced in the 2014/15 Budget, as was a Melbourne Metro Rail Link. This rail link will run from South Yarra through new stations at St Kilda Road (Domain) and Montague Street in the urban renewal zone, before joining the City Loop at Southern Cross. This increases capacity of the City Loop by more than the other option, and provides an opportunity for a rail line to the airport. It also minimises disturbance to CBD businesses, than tearing up Swanston Street.

[Smid]

I can't comment, but there are some very interesting things happening in some very interesting seats.

[Smid]

I can't comment, but there are some very interesting things happening in some very interesting seats.

I'm hearing the same things. But this was never going to be a uniform-swing election. It's not going to be clear cut.

When I read this, I agreed, but your comment on the sandbelt in a subsequent post threw me: you must be hearing things about other electorates to me, I can call the sandbelt with confidence, it is a few of the other seats that I am having to guess. I know a couple which have moved towards us outside the sandbelt, and know they are tight, but for me, it is pure speculation as to whether it is tight but in front, or tight but behind. Other than "hearing the same things", I agree, not uniform swing, etc.

[Smid]

Those Melbourne maps were from 2010. They were only just released under my own version of the Cabinet-in-Confidence 30-year rule.

[Smid]

Those Melbourne maps were from 2010. They were only just released under my own version of the Cabinet-in-Confidence 30-year rule.

Ah, okay. And they were for L.C. results too. I didn't read the text-box until now.

The primary vote ones are Leg Council. The 2CP are Leg Assembly - they don't allocate Council preferences by booth, and Council 2CP would be meaningless. It is, however, a better indicator of "pure" party vote for various reasons (the most significant being that the vast majority are Above-the-Line party votes, plus the generally low profile of Upper House MPs relative to Lower House MPs, male them an effective tool for stripping out the effect of a popular and well-known incumbent, but not to ignore the fact that it is common knowledge that minor parties have a greater chance of winning so people are more likely to vote for them, plus it removes the effect of a well-known independent in a single Assembly district, plus any independent or minor party is on the Leg Council ballot in at least eleven contiguous Assembly districts, plus the larger number of party options reduces the proportion of minor/micro party voters allocating a first preference for a major party... In short, a major party's primary vote in the Upper House is a better indicator of party vote, than a similar value from Lower House results).

[Smid]

Thanks, that explains a lot; now I wish we had Senate primary votes for each House of Representatives Division on hand somewhere. I recall reading somewhere before the 2013 federal election about how high Joanna Gash's personal vote was, evidenced by how Labor actually outperformed in the Senate in Gilmore. Gives so some insight into why that was a rare seat to swing away from the Coalition that year once she retired. I wonder what other examples exist akin to that one.

I was of the opinion that a Senate map was on here, but it may have been 2010. The data is not hard to obtain. PM me your email address if you want me to send you what I can find.