Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014

[Barnes]

With the state election in Victoria do in almost five months, I think it's high time we establish a thread for action.

For those who might not be aware, the current government is lead by Premier Denis Napthine (Lib - South-West Coast).  Prior to March 2013, the government held a majority of one (44 to 43, with a Liberal serving as Speaker, Ken Smith) over Labor.  The government has been in minority since 6 March 2013 when Geoff Shaw (Lib - Frankston) left the Liberal whip and sat as an independent; perhaps not so coincidentally, this occurred on the same day as Napthine taking over as Liberal leader and Premier.  Shaw initially promised to support the Coalition on confidence and supply measures, effectively retaining their one-seat majority. 

This situation really began to fall apart last November (if I remember correctly) when Shaw stated he no longer had confidence in the Speaker, eventually leading to Smith's resignation in February.  Around this time, Shaw became embroiled in an expenses scandal involving his official car and effectively broke ties with the Coalition. 

This past month, Labor, led by Daniel Andrews (Mulgrave) attempted to expell Shaw from the Parliament - something not done in over one hundred years in Victoria.  Shaw didn't attend the debate on the motion, and it tied 42-42 with the new Speaker, Christine Fyffe, voting against the motion; subsequently the Assembly voted to suspend Shaw for 11 sitting days.

This has effectively denied the Coalition the ability to pass legislation through the Assembly on its own - making it dependent on either the Speaker's tie-breaking vote (which is heavily dictated by precedent and convention) or on the opposition.  Seeing as Victoria has fixed four-year parliamentary terms, a snap election is nearly impossible.

Suffice it to say, the constitutional crisis did no favors to Napthine in the polls, but the single biggest blow to the Coalition's standing has been how wildly unpopular the federal government has become in Victoria.  This article from "The Age" describes the situation very well: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-is-no-jewel-in-the-liberal-crown-as-the-victorian-election-nears-20140627-zsoh9.html

An average of recent polling has shown Labor in a large lead on 2PP, (56 to 44), and then develops an enormous advantage when preference flows are allocated (59 to 41).  If this polling holds until November, the Coalition government will be the first to one-term government to loose re-election since 1955.

All in all, it's going to be a very exciting time down under.


As an addendum, here's a layout of the previous election, and the composition of Parliament.

2010 State election - Assembly
Liberal: 38.03% - 35 seats (+3.59 %, +12 seats)
Labor: 36.25% - 43 seats (-6.81%, -12 seats)
Greens: 11.21% - 0 seats (+1.17%)
National: 6.75% - 10 seats (+1.58%, +1 seat)
Family First: 2.29% - 0 seats (-2.00%)
Others: 5.54% (-1 seat)

Two-Party Preferred
Coalition: 51.58% - 45 seats (+5.97%)
Labor: 48.42% - 43 seats (-5.97%)

The current composition of the Legislative Council is:
Liberal: 18 seats
National: 3 seats
Labor: 16 seats
Greens: 3 seats

[Barnes]

Glad to see that my thread got revived!

It's fascinating to observe the trends in Australia over the past several years: you start out in 2008 with Labor in control of the federal government and every state/territory gov't as well.  That slowly whittles away to what we have now with a Coalition calling the shots federally and only a minority Labor gov't in SA and the ACT.  If Labor is able to win in Victoria could this be the beginning of another sea change?

[Barnes]

The fact that this could be the first time a one-term government has been defeated in Victoria since 1955 will be notable in itself.

Personally, I don't think Labor's rosy polls will hold out the way they look now - I'm banking on a 52% TPP for them.  Of course, that would be more than enough if the swing is uniform, and there's no guarantee it will be.

[Barnes]

The ALP candidate in Prahran, Neil Pharaoh, has pulled ahead of the Liberal on a 2PP 50.2 - 49.8.

Of course, there are quite a few votes left to count here.

[Barnes]

The result is Prahran is in no way definite. Clem Newton-Brown's lead is now 11 votes, and Labor is requesting a recount.  There's still votes to be counted, as well.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/labors-neil-pharaoh-calls-for-prahran-vote-recount-20141208-122slc.html

[Barnes]

What a disastrous campaign for Labor in this seat, coming third in a seat they held until the last election! Hopefully they'll choose a proper candidate next time.

Bit melodramatic.

Labor has held this seat for 16 out of the last 59 years... so it's not like this is Labor heartland. Plus this is a seat that has had a strong Greens presence for a number of years. So considering the surge around Melbourne to the Greens at the expense of Labor... it's hardly shocking.

Exactly.  This isn't some earth-shattering breakthrough.  As long as Labor can hold an overall majority in the lower house (which they already have, of course), another Green is fine.