Some attempts at predictions (WARNING: I don't know that much about non-NSW state politics)
A-L (M-Z will come tomorrow)
Albert Park - potentially interesting, but it's probably not the right year for the Liberals to win this race. I'll be interested to see how
cruel Port Philip is.
Altona - Julia Gillard land. Safe Labor of course.
Bass - solidly Liberal, but Labor went close here in 2002....this isn't 2002 though
Bayswater - the redistrubtion has made this more marginal...Labor would've won it in 2006 under the current boundaries. Probably a Liberal hold though.
Bellarine - incumbency and a general swing should save Neville here.
Benambra - safe Liberal. Although looking at the seat, this seat probably should be a National one.
Bendigo East - probably should be a Labor hold, although it is interesting to note that there was basically no Liberal swing here.
Bendigo West - again expect it to remain in Labor's hands. Labor will also benefit from a partial sophmore surge here.
Bentleigh - will be interesting. On paper should be a Labor gain, but the MP here will get a sophmore surge....and my spies seem to suggest that the Liberals are reasonably confident here.
Box Hill - pretty solidly Liberal, although under the new boundaries this would apparently be a Labor win in 2002.
Brighton - the best Liberal bit of the Port Philip coast. Safe Liberal.
Broadmeadows - John Brumby's old seat, and now held by the older brother of noted d**khead Eddie McGuire. Safe Labor o/c.
Brunswick - apparently the polling looks good for the Greens, but I'm not convinced. They won't get Liberal preferences and there will be a partial sophmore surge here. It will be close, but I'd expect Labor to hold on....the factors that saw Bandt defy preferences and win Melbourne in 2013 aren't relevant here (i.e. there's no sitting member here)
Bulleen - Kevin Andrews land. Safe Liberal.
Bundoora - safe Labor I'd imagine.
Buninyong - given that the Nats are apparently having an open ticket for HTV purposes, Labor should hang on here.
Burwood - this district seems rather volatile, but given that the MP will get a sophmore surge and that the margin looks fairly safe, the Liberals should hold.
Carrum - part of the 'sandbelt' seats that are must win for both parties. Will be tough for Bauer to hold her, but her local profile is strong and she will get a sophmore surge.
Caulfield - the Jewish belt, this district has probably saved Labor's arse in Melbourne Ports federally. However at the state level it is safe Liberal.
Clarinda - safe Labor.
Cranbourne - a marginal district, but in this climate it should be retained by Labor. BTW, I love the Greens candidate from 2010's name....a ex-James Bond character and the pen name a former Crikey writer.
Croydon - safe Liberal, but like a lot of the middle class Eastern suburbs districts, it was Labor held in 2002.
Dandenong - it's Dandenong. Safe Labor.
Eildon - the redistribution has made this once crucial seat safe Liberal.
Eltham - looked close early on, as it is Labor's most marginal seat and the sitting MP is moving to the Upper House, but the general swing to Labor and some scandals around the Liberal candidate should see this be a hold.
Essendon - while the seat is marginal on paper, it generally only goes Liberal in very bad elections (though that still makes it very safe Liberal by the standards of Melbourne North-West
). I wonder if the big swing here was down to Madden turncoating from Essendon to Carlton.
Euroa - this district is actually a lot tighter now since the redistribution (though still safe Coalition). More interesting is the fact there's a three-cornered contest, and that the National candidate isn't really great as a local candidate. The Nationals need this seat more than the Liberals do though, so they should hang on.
Evelyn - another middle-class Eastern suburbs seat that is safe Liberal except in landslides.
Ferntree Gully - ditto.
Footscray - the sort of seat that may be competitive in about 10-20 years, but for now Labor is probably safe from a Greens challenge. Interestingly quite a few reputable independents running here.
Forest Hill - although this seat is marginal, the swing here was rather subuded in 2010, so with a sophmore surge this is probably safe for now.
Frankston - Geoff Shaw's seat. He'll poll Thomson/Slipper levels most likely. Given his misadventures it's hard to see the Liberals winning the seat given how marginal it is, and general discontent with the Liberal government among the sandbelt seats.
Geelong - although Geelong has a reputation of being a poor bogan area (so safe Labor), there are some areas in Geelong that are rather swingy. Given the loss of the MP in the wrong year it might be hard for Labor to hold, but as it is it should be safe.
Gembrook - another formerly Labor held Eastern suburbs district that should be safe for the Liberals this election.
Gippsland East - with Ingram gone, the Gippsland seats will remain National for the forseeable future.
Gippsland South - safe National o/c
Hastings - similar to most of the middle-class Eastern suburbs districts in terms of how they vote, but this district is more rural. Again for this election it is safe Liberal.
Hawthorn - Ted Ballieu's old seat. Yeah, safe Liberal.
Ivanhoe - should be a Labor hold given the general trend. BTW, the demographics of this district is very atypical of how the seat actually votes.
Kew - another safe Liberal seat in the mid-East. Yawn...
Keysborough - should be safe Labor, but the by-election here was pretty bad for Labor. Still I can't imagine this being the right election for this to flip.
Kororoit - another uber-safe Labor seat in the North-West of Melbourne.
Lara - the better Labor bits in Geelong. Safe Labor.
Lowan - safe Nationals. BTW, I'm surprised there isn't a three cornered contest here.
