Victorian State Parliamentary Election - 29 November 2014

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I'll post my predictions sometime in the next 12 hours, better late than never!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Okay, here we go, my (even later than I thought) predictions:

46-33-9

Albert Park      ALP
Altona              ALP
Bass                      LIB
Bayswater              LIB
Bellarine              ALP
Benambra              LIB
Bendigo East      ALP
Bendigo West      ALP
Bentleigh         LIB
Box Hill         LIB
Brighton         LIB
Broadmeadows      ALP
Brunswick         ALP
Bulleen         LIB
Bundoora         ALP
Buninyong      ALP
Burwood         LIB
Carrum         LIB
Caulfield         LIB
Clarinda         ALP
Cranbourne      ALP
Croydon         LIB
Dandenong      ALP
Elidon         LIB
Eltham         ALP
Essendon         ALP
Euroa         NAT
Evelyn         LIB
Ferntree Gully      LIB
Footscray         ALP
Forest Hill         LIB
Frankston         ALP
Geelong         ALP
Gembrook         LIB
Gippsland East      NAT
Gippsland South   NAT
Hastings         LIB
Hawthorn         LIB
Ivanhoe         ALP
Kew            LIB
Keysborough      ALP
Kororoit         ALP
Lara            ALP
Lowan         NAT
Macedon         ALP
Malvern         LIB
Melbourne         ALP
Melton         ALP
Mildura         NAT
Mill Park         ALP
Monbulk         ALP
Mordialloc         ALP
Mornington      LIB
Morwell         NAT
Mount Waverley   LIB
Mulgrave         ALP
Murray Plains      NAT
Narracan         LIB
Narre Warren North   ALP
Narre Warren South   ALP
Nepean         LIB
Niddrie         ALP
Northcote         ALP
Oakleigh         ALP
Ovens Valley      NAT
Pascoe Vale      ALP
Polwarth         LIB
Prahran         LIB
Preston         ALP
Richmond         ALP
Ringwood         LIB
Ripon         LIB
Rowville         LIB
Sandringham      LIB
Shepparton      NAT
South Barwon      LIB
South-West Coast   LIB
St Albans         ALP
Sunbury         ALP
Sydenham      ALP
Tarneit         ALP
Thomastown      ALP
Warrandyte      LIB
Wendouree      ALP
Werribee         ALP
Williamstown      ALP
Yan Yean         ALP
Yuroke         ALP

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Not a great day for my side of politics, I expected Labor to win, but by a slightly smaller margin and also surprised that Mulgrave did not swing that strongly to Labor either.

Also, what happened in Shepparton?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Not a great day for my side of politics, I expected Labor to win, but by a slightly smaller margin and also surprised that Mulgrave did not swing that strongly to Labor either.

Also, what happened in Shepparton?

Shepparton was one of the seats I was told to watch. The ALP knew they had no chance, but that the pretty visible Independent had been learning a lot from Cathy McGowan's win at the Federal level in Indi. But I still found it odd that she actually won so cleanly.

Overall, what seems to have been unexpected, at least from the perspective of the people I spoke to, was how emphatic some of the wins, especially those around Geelong and Ballarat were (South Barwon and Rippon were always going to be very tough for the ALP).

And as the NSW experiment shows, having the Hunters and Shooters in control of the Upper House is NEVER a good thing.

That sounds pretty reasonable, it goes to show that the Nationals cannot take rural Victoria for granted. Also, as you may have figured, we disagree considerably on the Hunters and Shooters Party (I quite like them myself), and their presence in the Legislative Council (assuming current numbers hold), will be interesting.

This is because Labor will only have 13 seats in the new Council on current figures, and will need to negotiate with the Greens (18 seats between them, still 3 short of a majority), and the 6 councillors from the following: Shooters, Family First, Country Alliance, and the *** Party (I'd rather not type that name out) to get legislation passed.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Not a great day for my side of politics, I expected Labor to win, but by a slightly smaller margin and also surprised that Mulgrave did not swing that strongly to Labor either.

Also, what happened in Shepparton?

Shepparton was one of the seats I was told to watch. The ALP knew they had no chance, but that the pretty visible Independent had been learning a lot from Cathy McGowan's win at the Federal level in Indi. But I still found it odd that she actually won so cleanly.

Overall, what seems to have been unexpected, at least from the perspective of the people I spoke to, was how emphatic some of the wins, especially those around Geelong and Ballarat were (South Barwon and Rippon were always going to be very tough for the ALP).

And as the NSW experiment shows, having the Hunters and Shooters in control of the Upper House is NEVER a good thing.

That sounds pretty reasonable, it goes to show that the Nationals cannot take rural Victoria for granted. Also, as you may have figured, we disagree considerably on the Hunters and Shooters Party (I quite like them myself), and their presence in the Legislative Council (assuming current numbers hold), will be interesting.

This is because Labor will only have 13 seats in the new Council on current figures, and will need to negotiate with the Greens (18 seats between them, still 3 short of a majority), and the 6 councillors from the following: Shooters, Family First, Country Alliance, and the *** Party (I'd rather not type that name out) to get legislation passed.

It's not Family First, it's DLP which is winning a seat right now.

My bad, I knew it was one or the other, should have paid more attention to the results. The point I was making that on those numbers, Labor will have a potentially difficult crossbench to work with.