Which of these monarchies will still exist in 2050?

[Indy Texas]

*Andorra is not a hereditary monarchy, but is still considered a monarchy by virtue of its co-rulers (the President of France and the Bishop of Urgell) being granted the title "prince."

Of the monarchies that you think will still exist in 2050, will any of them have changed forms (i.e. gone from absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy) or will one royal house fall and be succeeded by another?

Will any of the Commonwealth realms opt to become republics?

[politicus]

Cambodia and Jordan (a Palestinian state by then) are the only ones I think will be gone. But I hope Saudi-Arabia and several of the Gulf states will have had regime changes as well. All royal families in that region deserves to go (perhaps not the Omani).

Morocco will be a real democracy with a figurehead King.

Australia and New Zealand will be republics.

[Barnes]

I feel nearly all will still be around - Spain is a little iffy, but only time will tell on that matter.

Of course, with Belgium, the continuance of their monarchy is contengent on Belgium itself still being a country in 2050 - something you can never be too sure of when that country is concerned!

ANZAC will most certainly have had referendums on the subject by that point, whether or not they would be successful is also open.

 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This is all very speculative; even the most seemingly stable of monarchies can fall.

I would say the safest monarch may be Japan's, being a stable, yet conservative country. Andorra, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg are probably safe as well.

Beyond that, it's hard to say. Many Muslim majority countries - the Gulf, Jordan, Morocco - are vulnerable to both Al-Quada and Islamist groups. We'll probably see them slip from absolute to semi-constitutional (or even constitutional, in the case of Morocco). Jordan's monarchy is in most danger - it isn't particularly liked at present, and the country sits in a vulnerable area and lacks the oil wealth of its neighbours to the South. And of course, who knows what will happen once the Thai king dies?

[Famous Mortimer]

Jordan, like Israel, will be a state of it's citizens in 50 years. The term "Palestinian" will be meaningless.

[politicus]

Jordan, like Israel, will be a state of it's citizens in 50 years. The term "Palestinian" will be meaningless.

Not as an ethnic label.

[Indy Texas]

My Predictions:

Bahrain - monarchy is overthrown by an ideologically broad rebel coalition, which immediately fractures and descends into civil war; the island emirate is invaded and annexed by the Islamic Republic of Iran

Cambodia - King Norodom Shihamoni abdicates and, as he never married or had children, leaves no presumed successor; the Cambodian Parliament passes a law disestablishing the monarchy, which is later confirmed by a national referendum.

Jordan - the Hashemite monarchy is overthrown and a civil war ensues between Islamist republicans and rural bedouins who seek to establish a new royal house; Israel recognizes a Palestinian state in Gaza and a severely truncated portion of the West Bank, with the condition that the new State of Palestine invade and annex as much of Jordan for itself as possible, with Israeli military assistance. Not seeing any irony in this at all, the Palestinian government agrees and incorporates most of the regions east of the Jordan River into its state. The remainder of the country is indirectly ruled as the Territory of Eastern Transjordan, though de facto control is in the hands of various Bedouin tribal clans who rely on Palestinian, Israeli and American support to keep Islamist sentiment under control.

Malaysia - monarchy is abolished by parliament, but the country's various regional monarchies continue to exist

Qatar - monarchy and country cease to exist when it is invaded and annexed by the United Arab Emirates following a civil war

Saudi Arabia - Mecca, Medina and surrounding areas break off and become an elective theocratic monarchy known as the Islamic Emirate of the Hejaz. Yemen invades and annexes much of the country's southern territory. A northern district bordering the Islamic State of Iraq (a/k/a West Iraq) rebels and joins that country. The remainder of the country is ruled as a severely weakened rump state by the Saud family, with the capital continuing to exist in Riyadh.

Spain - monarchy is abolished by rerefendum; subsequent referenda in Castile and Aragon resurrect the monarchy as a regional title; Felipe VI's daughter thus succeeds him as Leonor, Queen of Castile and Aragon, though she has no nationally-recognized authority derived from this title.

Thailand - following the end of military rule, the monarchy is abolished by the national legislature when a new constitution is drafted

United Arab Emirates Dubai - reconstructed as a unitary constitutional monarchy under the Emir of Dubai; later annexes Qatar; changes name to reflect the economic and demographic dominance of Dubai and the fact that the majority of the population is no longer Arab but of South Asian background (also changes official languages to English and Urdu).

[Simfan34]

You have not a clue what you are talking about, do you? Why would Dubai take over the UAE? Why would the Thai legislature abolish the monarchy? What motivation would Malaysia have for abolishing theirs? Same with Cambodia, and so forth. Etc, etc, etc. Then again, we've seen a great many monarchies overthrown for no reason at all, much less good reasons (well, only a very small handful could be said to have been abolished for good reasons, a very very small handful).

My answer: none of the above. Okay. Maybe the Bahraini monarchy might go. But I don't see any others, except for a commonwealth realm or two (Papua New Guinea?).

The far more interesting question is which countries will restore their monarchies. This is a pretty sizable list of plausible choices:

Libya
Serbia
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Fiji
Nepal
Laos
Yemen
Georgia

The list is rather long, and it's pretty much in order of probability. I'd say God's own form of government () has a bright future ahead of it. If it wasn't for George Bush's meddling,  in fact, Afghanistan would probably be a monarchy right now, actually. That, I cannot forgive him for. But we cannot rule out random events resulting in restoration in strange places (Egypt? Russia?) that we didn't expect.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

You have not a clue what you are talking about, do you? Why would Dubai take over the UAE? Why would the Thai legislature abolish the monarchy? What motivation would Malaysia have for abolishing theirs? Same with Cambodia, and so forth. Etc, etc, etc. Then again, we've seen a great many monarchies overthrown for no reason at all, much less good reasons (well, only a very small handful could be said to have been abolished for good reasons, a very very small handful).

My answer: none of the above. Okay. Maybe the Bahraini monarchy might go. But I don't see any others, except for a commonwealth realm or two (Papua New Guinea?).

The far more interesting question is which countries will restore their monarchies. This is a pretty sizable list of plausible choices:

Libya
Serbia
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Fiji
Nepal
Laos
Yemen
Georgia

The list is rather long, and it's pretty much in order of probability. I'd say God's own form of government () has a bright future ahead of it. If it wasn't for George Bush's meddling,  in fact, Afghanistan would probably be a monarchy right now, actually. That, I cannot forgive him for. But we cannot rule out random events resulting in restoration in strange places (Egypt? Russia?) that we didn't expect.

Please explain how any of those choices other than Libya are plausible.

[Indy Texas]

The far more interesting question is which countries will restore their monarchies. This is a pretty sizable list of plausible choices:

Libya
Serbia
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Fiji
Nepal
Laos
Yemen
Georgia

The list is rather long, and it's pretty much in order of probability. I'd say God's own form of government () has a bright future ahead of it. If it wasn't for George Bush's meddling,  in fact, Afghanistan would probably be a monarchy right now, actually. That, I cannot forgive him for. But we cannot rule out random events resulting in restoration in strange places (Egypt? Russia?) that we didn't expect.

You clearly have such a clue as to what you're talking about.

I'll let you fantasize about a Disney-style restoration of the Romanovs to Russia.

[Simfan34]

You have not a clue what you are talking about, do you? Why would Dubai take over the UAE? Why would the Thai legislature abolish the monarchy? What motivation would Malaysia have for abolishing theirs? Same with Cambodia, and so forth. Etc, etc, etc. Then again, we've seen a great many monarchies overthrown for no reason at all, much less good reasons (well, only a very small handful could be said to have been abolished for good reasons, a very very small handful).

My answer: none of the above. Okay. Maybe the Bahraini monarchy might go. But I don't see any others, except for a commonwealth realm or two (Papua New Guinea?).

The far more interesting question is which countries will restore their monarchies. This is a pretty sizable list of plausible choices:

Libya
Serbia
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Fiji
Nepal
Laos
Yemen
Georgia

The list is rather long, and it's pretty much in order of probability. I'd say God's own form of government () has a bright future ahead of it. If it wasn't for George Bush's meddling,  in fact, Afghanistan would probably be a monarchy right now, actually. That, I cannot forgive him for. But we cannot rule out random events resulting in restoration in strange places (Egypt? Russia?) that we didn't expect.

Please explain how any of those choices other than Libya are plausible.

In Serbia, a recent poll shows that more people support a restoration than oppose it. In Montenegro, the Royal Family there has had its properties restored, it's "historic status" denoted by law, and the Crown Prince receives a salary equal to that of the president and has been appointed an official representative of the government. In Romania, the royal family enjoys widespread approval and the former King Michael I is by far the most trusted public figure in the country. In Bulgaria the former King was elected Prime Minister a few years ago, although that's mainly dissipated now.

In Fiji, even though the monarchy was overthrown in 1989, it enjoys widespread support,particularly amongst traditional leaders, and it's so strong that an attempt by the military regime to remove the queen from banknotes was met with widespread resistance. In Nepal, where the monarchy was overthrown less than a decade ago, restorationist sentiment is palpable and growing. Monarchist parties made gains in the most recent elections and the failure to achieve stability, coupled with a BJP government in India, could lead Nepal back to monarchy. In Laos, monarchy is the only real alternative to the regime at present as far as I am aware, but I don't know much about Laos. In Yemen Saleh was making boogeymen out of monarchists a few years ago, and the Georgian opposition had been commenting on a possible restoration.

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

[politicus]

In Laos, monarchy is the only real alternative to the regime at present as far as I am aware, but I don't know much about Laos. ¨

See if you can get Robert Cooper: Laos - A Work in Progress.

Do you have any basis for the idea of a monarchist sentiment in Laos? I travelled there 2 years ago and resident foreigners with long experience in Laos never mentioned it when we talked about the future of the country (Lao people wont speak about politics to visitors, for obvious reasons).

[Famous Mortimer]

I think it's likely that if the UK ever got rid of their monarchy, basically every other EU country would follow shortly after in the next 2-5 years.

Similarly, I think if Sweden of The Netherlands or some non-Spain country abolished the monarchy then almost every other country except the UK would follow.

Spain probably wouldn't cause too much of a tidal wave though, as it's own monarchy is too much of a historical anomaly.

[politicus]

I think it's likely that if the UK ever got rid of their monarchy, basically every other EU country would follow shortly after in the next 2-5 years.

Similarly, I think if Sweden of The Netherlands or some non-Spain country abolished the monarchy then almost every other country except the UK would follow.

Spain probably wouldn't cause too much of a tidal wave though, as it's own monarchy is too much of a historical anomaly.

This seems far fetched. Britain is not a role model for countries in continental Europe and the monarchy is a matter of national tradition, not something influenced by what other countries do,

I suppose the Scandinavian countries might nfluence each other somewhat, since we use each other as points of reference, but apart from that why for instance should Danes care if the monarchy is abolished in Belgium?

[Supersonic]

All will remain monarchies most likely. Belgium is contingent on actually remaining a united country.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Belgium was dissolved, would its current monarch reign over both Flanders and Walloon? (Like the Scots arrangement)

The general trend regarding monarchy has been towards abolition  - and once they're abolished, they're pretty hard to get back. The monarchy that really needs to end btw is Swaziland.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The monarchy that really needs to end btw is Swaziland.

Absolutely. For all that you never really hear that much about him, Mswati is one of the worst dictators in the world. In fact 'dictator' barely covers it--I'd go so far as to call him a tyrant.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

snip

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

Of all the royal houses to restore....

[Storebought]

The monarchy that really needs to end btw is Swaziland.

Absolutely. For all that you never really hear that much about him, Mswati is one of the worst dictators in the world. In fact 'dictator' barely covers it--I'd go so far as to call him a tyrant.

He's taken African customs and the loyalty of his population and abused them beyond defense.

[Stranger in a strange land]

You have not a clue what you are talking about, do you? Why would Dubai take over the UAE? Why would the Thai legislature abolish the monarchy? What motivation would Malaysia have for abolishing theirs? Same with Cambodia, and so forth. Etc, etc, etc. Then again, we've seen a great many monarchies overthrown for no reason at all, much less good reasons (well, only a very small handful could be said to have been abolished for good reasons, a very very small handful).

My answer: none of the above. Okay. Maybe the Bahraini monarchy might go. But I don't see any others, except for a commonwealth realm or two (Papua New Guinea?).

The far more interesting question is which countries will restore their monarchies. This is a pretty sizable list of plausible choices:

Libya
Serbia
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Fiji
Nepal
Laos
Yemen
Georgia

The list is rather long, and it's pretty much in order of probability. I'd say God's own form of government () has a bright future ahead of it. If it wasn't for George Bush's meddling,  in fact, Afghanistan would probably be a monarchy right now, actually. That, I cannot forgive him for. But we cannot rule out random events resulting in restoration in strange places (Egypt? Russia?) that we didn't expect.

Please explain how any of those choices other than Libya are plausible.

In Serbia, a recent poll shows that more people support a restoration than oppose it. In Montenegro, the Royal Family there has had its properties restored, it's "historic status" denoted by law, and the Crown Prince receives a salary equal to that of the president and has been appointed an official representative of the government. In Romania, the royal family enjoys widespread approval and the former King Michael I is by far the most trusted public figure in the country. In Bulgaria the former King was elected Prime Minister a few years ago, although that's mainly dissipated now.

In Fiji, even though the monarchy was overthrown in 1989, it enjoys widespread support,particularly amongst traditional leaders, and it's so strong that an attempt by the military regime to remove the queen from banknotes was met with widespread resistance. In Nepal, where the monarchy was overthrown less than a decade ago, restorationist sentiment is palpable and growing. Monarchist parties made gains in the most recent elections and the failure to achieve stability, coupled with a BJP government in India, could lead Nepal back to monarchy. In Laos, monarchy is the only real alternative to the regime at present as far as I am aware, but I don't know much about Laos. In Yemen Saleh was making boogeymen out of monarchists a few years ago, and the Georgian opposition had been commenting on a possible restoration.

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

Hate to break it to you, but the Honhenzollerns aren't getting restored. And before anyone says so, neither are the Hapsburgs, the Romanovs, or the Ottomans.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sadly, probably all of them.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

you do realise that andreas eschbach is a fiction author?

[ingemann]

I think it's likely that if the UK ever got rid of their monarchy, basically every other EU country would follow shortly after in the next 2-5 years.

Similarly, I think if Sweden of The Netherlands or some non-Spain country abolished the monarchy then almost every other country except the UK would follow.

Spain probably wouldn't cause too much of a tidal wave though, as it's own monarchy is too much of a historical anomaly.

This seems far fetched. Britain is not a role model for countries in continental Europe and the monarchy is a matter of national tradition, not something influenced by what other countries do,

I suppose the Scandinavian countries might nfluence each other somewhat, since we use each other as points of reference, but apart from that why for instance should Danes care if the monarchy is abolished in Belgium?

I honestly don't see Denmark being effected by Sweden or vice versa (at least no more than any other country abolishing the monarchy), I think or public debate and media have become too alien to each other for us to see such a effect. You can see it right now, where Sweden have strong anti-monarchism media, while in Denmark it doesn't fill anything in the general debate.

Abolishing the monarchy in Norway on the other hand could have some effects, while we may look down on the Norwegians (as lovable hillbillies), we are often inspired by them.

[Simfan34]

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

you do realise that andreas eschbach is a fiction author?

Who? What?

[Sol]

My Predictions:

Bahrain - monarchy is overthrown by an ideologically broad rebel coalition, which immediately fractures and descends into civil war; the island emirate is invaded and annexed by the Islamic Republic of Iran

Cambodia - King Norodom Shihamoni abdicates and, as he never married or had children, leaves no presumed successor; the Cambodian Parliament passes a law disestablishing the monarchy, which is later confirmed by a national referendum.

Jordan - the Hashemite monarchy is overthrown and a civil war ensues between Islamist republicans and rural bedouins who seek to establish a new royal house; Israel recognizes a Palestinian state in Gaza and a severely truncated portion of the West Bank, with the condition that the new State of Palestine invade and annex as much of Jordan for itself as possible, with Israeli military assistance. Not seeing any irony in this at all, the Palestinian government agrees and incorporates most of the regions east of the Jordan River into its state. The remainder of the country is indirectly ruled as the Territory of Eastern Transjordan, though de facto control is in the hands of various Bedouin tribal clans who rely on Palestinian, Israeli and American support to keep Islamist sentiment under control.

Malaysia - monarchy is abolished by parliament, but the country's various regional monarchies continue to exist

Qatar - monarchy and country cease to exist when it is invaded and annexed by the United Arab Emirates following a civil war

Saudi Arabia - Mecca, Medina and surrounding areas break off and become an elective theocratic monarchy known as the Islamic Emirate of the Hejaz. Yemen invades and annexes much of the country's southern territory. A northern district bordering the Islamic State of Iraq (a/k/a West Iraq) rebels and joins that country. The remainder of the country is ruled as a severely weakened rump state by the Saud family, with the capital continuing to exist in Riyadh.

Spain - monarchy is abolished by rerefendum; subsequent referenda in Castile and Aragon resurrect the monarchy as a regional title; Felipe VI's daughter thus succeeds him as Leonor, Queen of Castile and Aragon, though she has no nationally-recognized authority derived from this title.

Thailand - following the end of military rule, the monarchy is abolished by the national legislature when a new constitution is drafted

United Arab Emirates Dubai - reconstructed as a unitary constitutional monarchy under the Emir of Dubai; later annexes Qatar; changes name to reflect the economic and demographic dominance of Dubai and the fact that the majority of the population is no longer Arab but of South Asian background (also changes official languages to English and Urdu).

Bahrain, Jordan and the U.A.E. in this are all ridiculously implausible. The first is semi-realistic, except I doubt Iran would annex Bahrain. Any-U.A.E. equivalent entity will not call itself Dubai, partially because Dubai doesn't fully dominate the country. There's are a reason why Dubai's tower was renamed...