Which of these monarchies will still exist in 2050?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

you do realise that andreas eschbach is a fiction author?

Who? What?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ein_K%C3%B6nig_f%C3%BCr_Deutschland

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

where Sweden have strong anti-monarchism media, while in Denmark it doesn't fill anything in the general debate.

Wait... what?

This is news to me. Our media in general loves to suck up to the royal family, and I say that as a staunch royalist.   

[ingemann]

where Sweden have strong anti-monarchism media, while in Denmark it doesn't fill anything in the general debate.

Wait... what?

This is news to me. Our media in general loves to suck up to the royal family, and I say that as a staunch royalist.  

Sorry that may be me who's wrong, your media just seem to not having their tongue as far up in your monarchy's colon as our have.

[Simfan34]

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

you do realise that andreas eschbach is a fiction author?

Who? What?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ein_K%C3%B6nig_f%C3%BCr_Deutschland

What does this have to do with anything?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

you do realise that andreas eschbach is a fiction author?

Who? What?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ein_K%C3%B6nig_f%C3%BCr_Deutschland

What does this have to do with anything?

in the book, the "people's movement for the restoration of the monarchy" (vwm) manages to win* the bundestag elections and reinstate the monarchy.

[TNF]

Hopefully none of them.

It would be great to enter the 22nd Century without any royal parasites.

[Simfan34]

ugh

[BaconBacon96]

I can see Spain, Bahrain and Jordan's monarchies ceasing to exist by then.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In Serbia, a recent poll shows that more people support a restoration than oppose it. In Montenegro, the Royal Family there has had its properties restored, it's "historic status" denoted by law, and the Crown Prince receives a salary equal to that of the president and has been appointed an official representative of the government. In Romania, the royal family enjoys widespread approval and the former King Michael I is by far the most trusted public figure in the country. In Bulgaria the former King was elected Prime Minister a few years ago, although that's mainly dissipated now.

In Fiji, even though the monarchy was overthrown in 1989, it enjoys widespread support,particularly amongst traditional leaders, and it's so strong that an attempt by the military regime to remove the queen from banknotes was met with widespread resistance. In Nepal, where the monarchy was overthrown less than a decade ago, restorationist sentiment is palpable and growing. Monarchist parties made gains in the most recent elections and the failure to achieve stability, coupled with a BJP government in India, could lead Nepal back to monarchy. In Laos, monarchy is the only real alternative to the regime at present as far as I am aware, but I don't know much about Laos. In Yemen Saleh was making boogeymen out of monarchists a few years ago, and the Georgian opposition had been commenting on a possible restoration.

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

The most likely instance of restorations in Eastern Europe would have been in 1991-1992, at least with regards to the Monarchs of Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia (Yugoslavia) who found their countries liberated by reds who would have been more then happy to deprive them of their heads after World War II. The problem is the history involved, and unlike in the UK where people bonded with their Monarch in World War II and Elizabeth has constantly been able to re-endear herself when necessary, not to mention the institution having been a fixture since forever, the memories of Monarchs in many other places is that of a tyrannical despot who plunged the country into war or whose supporters got a little too close with the Nazis.

That brings me to the last bit there, if the Germans were to restore the Monarch, why would be the most controversial of choices, that associated with Prussia Militarism, something Germany wants to desperately move away from. The are a numerous Germany familities that present better options that don't evoke images of Wilhelm II.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hate to break it to you, but the Hohenzollerns aren't getting restored. And before anyone says so, neither are the Hapsburgs, the Romanovs, or the Ottomans.

Of course not, the throne has already been occupied by Tsar Vladimir.

Tsar Paul's pent up hatred for his mother really screwed them over long term. There is not even a legitimate heir left as far as I am aware that doesn't in some way violate the rules. If you want to get really technical about dynasties, the Romanov dynasty ended in 1762 with the death of Tsarina Elizabeth, with those after being of the House of Holstein-Gottorp (sp?). Rather horrible bunch they were from the beginning save for Alexander II and it takes more then just tacking Romanov on the end to make it a continuous dynasty. In which case if the institution was somehow miraculously restored, they would probably be better off just starting over possibly find some poor teenager who has some trace Rurik blood or just far more likely if he remains in power, give it to Vladimir. The problem with that though is he wants to be on top and he wants power and he cannot do if the Monarchy were re-established in some ceremonial form so it is a dead issue, if it wasn't otherwise, as long as he controls the country. Once again, the 1990's would have been the far better opportunity.

[GMantis]

Libya
Serbia
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Fiji
Nepal
Laos
Yemen
Georgia

The list is rather long, and it's pretty much in order of probability. I'd say God's own form of government () has a bright future ahead of it. If it wasn't for George Bush's meddling,  in fact, Afghanistan would probably be a monarchy right now, actually. That, I cannot forgive him for. But we cannot rule out random events resulting in restoration in strange places (Egypt? Russia?) that we didn't expect.

This list doesn't seem too inaccurate, though I would move Libya lower, Romania higher and put Bulgaria at the very bottom - separated by several pages of blank space from the rest of the entries, to properly represent the infinitesimally low probability of this happening.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bump to rethink my answers:

I think the Gulf monarchies are the most endangered. The Sauds have built their house on sand, and a lot of cracks are showing: the economic situation is dreadful and they're burning through foreign reserves, the war on Yemen is painfully unpopular, the West seem to be taking a more ambiguous stance towards the conflict with Iran and are under increasing pressure to distance themselves from their ally, the radical Islamists loathe them, they upper ranks are geriatric and the lower ranks poisonous and ambitious. It's not going to last. (Be interesting to see if the name changes, though). A Saudi fall would cause the collapse of the Bahraini monarchy almost immediately, and probably Jordan. Morocco is also quite vulnerable, especially if the "tame Islamists" of the PJd lose their popularity; as are the smaller states of UAE, Kuwait and Qatar, none of which seem like entirely stable situations. Perhaps The Omani monarchy is best suited for a constitutional monarchy  - Oman often goes its own way - but I couldn't count it out.

Of the Europeans, well, these monarchies have typically been through some pretty bad experiences and survived, so it would take some effort to dislodge them. Felipe VI seems to have saved the Bourbon's bacon, and he may be helped by more republican areas leaving. The Belgian monarchy may come under some pretty hair-raising struggles as the country may split in twain, but it held together after WW2 and Leopald's Nazi collaboration so im sure they'll at least rule a rump Flanders. The Dutch, Scandinavian and micro state monarchs are safe, assuming no serious scandals some. (Though I do note the Norwegians seem to in a scandal atm)

The Asian monarchs are probably also safe as the Scandanavians, with the exception of the SE Asian ones. Thailand's King is popular, but seeing as the army are intent on the idiot Crown Prince following him I doubt that will last. In a country as unstable as Thailand, that could be a mistake. Malaysia is an interesting case. The current king is mostly beloved by ethnic Malays, but if the opposing coalition, which has a lot of Chinese and Indians, they may be more sceptical of laws protecting the Sultans (even if they promise they are dedicated monarchists)

I think the Commonwelath realms will also drift away - Barbados, Jamaica, Australia, Papue New Guinea and New Zealand.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

The only way the Monarchy is abolished in the UK is if the island is invaded and conquered.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Republicans best time to strike is the period of time Charles is on the throne.

[DavidB.]

The Belgian monarchy may come under some pretty hair-raising struggles as the country may split in twain, but it held together after WW2 and Leopald's Nazi collaboration so im sure they'll at least rule a rump Flanders.

Color me skeptical. It seems unlikely to me that the monarchy will continue to reign over Flanders if Belgium is to be dissolved. While Flanders saved the monarchy in the post-war referendum (Walloons voting against), the monarchy has lost much of its initial popularity in Flanders: it is, of course, seen as a very "Belgian" institution and, as such, diametrically opposed to the goals of the Flemish nationalist movement, sometimes even explicitly. Some of the members of the royal family don't even seem to be able to speak in Dutch properly (and among our lovely southern neighbors the concept of "properly" is quite stretched already ). In sum: if Flanders is to be independent, I don't think it will be a monarchy (unless it decides to become part of the Netherlands, which seems extremely unlikely - in which case it gets another monarchy, the Dutch one).

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The only way the Monarchy is abolished in the UK is if the island is invaded and conquered.

If Corbyn gets elected, the Monarchy is either getting abolished or restored to absolute status.

[Simfan34]

About Thailand I'll just say this: if Phibun--whose regime(s) were republican in all but name--didn't abolish the monarchy, I highly doubt anyone else is going to do so in the foreseeable future. The army's apparent "accord" with Vajiralongkorn is a rather new thing whose most explicit manifestation has so far been a cycling event in honour of the Queen.

Keep in mind the Crown Prince's strongest supporters have so far been elements of the red shirt movement (some of whom have taken to wearing shirts reading "We love the Crown Prince"). This is  presumably because of his reputed ties to Thaksin. Hence the "downtrodden masses" who would theoretically be the most inclined towards a revolutionary transformation of society are the ones who would be personally supportive of the Crown Prince. At the same time, while the yellow-shirts may personally detest him, the fervour of their royalism is such that one can almost certainly rule out a republican turn.

What happens when Vajiralongkorn ascends the throne, and if those ties to Thaksin prove to be less substantial than thought, is another matter, but overall there is sufficient reverence for the monarchy as an institution-- even if it is far less than that personally enjoyed by King Bhumibol-- to almost virtually guarantee its survival.

Elsewhere I continue to see an relatively optimistic picture. The Belgian monarchy will survive for as long as the country does; I don't see the Flemish opting to maintain what is a primarily francophone institution. Spain seems safe for now, and should remain so unless the country itself falls apart. I am a bit unsure of Sweden's prospects, if only because monarchy seems at odds with what I imagine to be "Swedish values"-- they've already taken the unprecedented step of stripping the King of most of his reserve powers, 40 years ago. The other European monarchies are of no concern.

The King of Morocco has his critics, but his government has continued its liberalising direction, and it's unlikely Islamists will be allowed to gain the upper hand, even if it requires force. In Jordan, the King continues his balancing act between native Bedouins and Palestinians, but unless the latter were to attain dominance (which would also likely mean the end of Jordan as we know it), the monarchy will probably continue. Keep in mind what force historically overthrew monarchies-- the army. It is unlikely the armies of these countries will turn on their patrons and legitimisers. The Gulf States will almost certainly remain monarchies as long as the native minorities retain control-- with the exception of Bahrain. Saudi Arabia may break up, but I would hazard that at least one successor state would be a monarchy. The same could be said of Libya.

Elsewhere I see little risk. Just as Lee Kuan Yew continued to pay lip service to Singaporean Malays after independence, I doubt that a Sino-Indian run Malaysia (which I don't think is demographically possible, anyway) would risk antagonising Malays to such an extent. One imagines Sihamoni will take a cue from his father and nominate an inoffensive heir.

I remain convinced that we are today more likely, in terms of simple probability, to see a restored monarchy than we are to see one abolished.

Indeed, there is the outside possibility that a ruling family in some country, perhaps intending to appeal to "traditional values", might dispose of republican pretences and formally themselves a proper monarchy-- one might even argue that North Korea has already done this when it amended its constitution to mandate that its leader belong to the Kim family. We have already seen the curious institution of the "President-for-Life" and the even more curious institution of republican hereditary succession, so it's not out of the question that someone somewhere might someday make the full leap. 

Failing any of this, King Farouk's observation, in my mind, remains pertinent as ever-- if there is one monarchy left in the end, it will be the British. I'm ignoring the Commonwealth realms, but considering that 60% of Jamaicans think they'd be better off if they'd stayed a British colony, I doubt that particular Commonwealth realm is going anywhere anytime soon. 

[DeenThomas]

All of them. It`s quite reliable institute. Though I have doubts about unstable African continent, Togo and Lesotho, for example.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't think many leaders (Kims aside) will do a Bakassa and self-style themselves as monarchs anymore. Most modern dictators these days are too technocratic for that sort of stuff. I mean even Gadaffi didn't try that!

I suppose the hard thing about predicting this is it is very dependent on the volatile actions of individuals. After all, if it wasn't for Prince Dipendra going Columbine on his family, the Nepalese monarchy would probably be muddling along in power by now.

[Simfan34]

I don't think many leaders (Kims aside) will do a Bakassa and self-style themselves as monarchs anymore. Most modern dictators these days are too technocratic for that sort of stuff. I mean even Gadaffi didn't try that!

I suppose the hard thing about predicting this is it is very dependent on the volatile actions of individuals. After all, if it wasn't for Prince Dipendra going Columbine on his family, the Nepalese monarchy would probably be muddling along in power by now.

Agreed. Although there'd be an issue of what happens once he became King. Would he have made Vajiralongkorn look like a paragon of virtue... and the latest I've heard of him is that he was seen doing some late-night tandem parachuting with a minor concubine at Don Mueang Airport-- in the nude.

All of them. It`s quite reliable institute. Though I have doubts about unstable African continent, Togo and Lesotho, for example.

Indeed, I am very concerned about the Togolese monarchy's prospects.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably all except Bahrain (I feel that the oppressed Shi'a majority will overthrow the monarch and possibly merge with Iran) and Saudi Arabia (I feel that Saudi Arabia's support for the anti-Assad forces in Syria, intervention in the Yemeni Civil War, and continued repression of its Shi'a population will eventually tear the country apart within the next 5-10 years).

[Zioneer]

I've heard that the Sultan of Oman deliberately avoids naming an heir because he thinks they're all bad choices, and since he's in his 70s... the Republic of Oman could happen.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The only reason Liechtenstein exist is because of the House of Liechtenstein taking over a random piece of rural backwater in order to elevate themselves to the level of ruling family. If they fall, Liechtenstein is more likely to be absorbed into Switzerland than continue as a Republic. Same with Monaco.

[parochial boy]

The only reason Liechtenstein exist is because of the House of Liechtenstein taking over a random piece of rural backwater in order to elevate themselves to the level of ruling family. If they fall, Liechtenstein is more likely to be absorbed into Switzerland than continue as a Republic. Same with Monaco.

As much as I think Liechtenstein should be wiped from the face of the earth, the last thing we need is another 30,000 mad right wing Germans

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The only reason Liechtenstein exist is because of the House of Liechtenstein taking over a random piece of rural backwater in order to elevate themselves to the level of ruling family. If they fall, Liechtenstein is more likely to be absorbed into Switzerland than continue as a Republic. Same with Monaco.

As much as I think Liechtenstein should be wiped from the face of the earth, the last thing we need is another 30,000 mad right wing Germans

Then let's Tender have 'em all.