Which of these monarchies will still exist in 2050?

[Simfan34]

You have not a clue what you are talking about, do you? Why would Dubai take over the UAE? Why would the Thai legislature abolish the monarchy? What motivation would Malaysia have for abolishing theirs? Same with Cambodia, and so forth. Etc, etc, etc. Then again, we've seen a great many monarchies overthrown for no reason at all, much less good reasons (well, only a very small handful could be said to have been abolished for good reasons, a very very small handful).

My answer: none of the above. Okay. Maybe the Bahraini monarchy might go. But I don't see any others, except for a commonwealth realm or two (Papua New Guinea?).

The far more interesting question is which countries will restore their monarchies. This is a pretty sizable list of plausible choices:

Libya
Serbia
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Fiji
Nepal
Laos
Yemen
Georgia

The list is rather long, and it's pretty much in order of probability. I'd say God's own form of government () has a bright future ahead of it. If it wasn't for George Bush's meddling,  in fact, Afghanistan would probably be a monarchy right now, actually. That, I cannot forgive him for. But we cannot rule out random events resulting in restoration in strange places (Egypt? Russia?) that we didn't expect.

[Simfan34]

You have not a clue what you are talking about, do you? Why would Dubai take over the UAE? Why would the Thai legislature abolish the monarchy? What motivation would Malaysia have for abolishing theirs? Same with Cambodia, and so forth. Etc, etc, etc. Then again, we've seen a great many monarchies overthrown for no reason at all, much less good reasons (well, only a very small handful could be said to have been abolished for good reasons, a very very small handful).

My answer: none of the above. Okay. Maybe the Bahraini monarchy might go. But I don't see any others, except for a commonwealth realm or two (Papua New Guinea?).

The far more interesting question is which countries will restore their monarchies. This is a pretty sizable list of plausible choices:

Libya
Serbia
Montenegro
Romania
Bulgaria
Fiji
Nepal
Laos
Yemen
Georgia

The list is rather long, and it's pretty much in order of probability. I'd say God's own form of government () has a bright future ahead of it. If it wasn't for George Bush's meddling,  in fact, Afghanistan would probably be a monarchy right now, actually. That, I cannot forgive him for. But we cannot rule out random events resulting in restoration in strange places (Egypt? Russia?) that we didn't expect.

Please explain how any of those choices other than Libya are plausible.

In Serbia, a recent poll shows that more people support a restoration than oppose it. In Montenegro, the Royal Family there has had its properties restored, it's "historic status" denoted by law, and the Crown Prince receives a salary equal to that of the president and has been appointed an official representative of the government. In Romania, the royal family enjoys widespread approval and the former King Michael I is by far the most trusted public figure in the country. In Bulgaria the former King was elected Prime Minister a few years ago, although that's mainly dissipated now.

In Fiji, even though the monarchy was overthrown in 1989, it enjoys widespread support,particularly amongst traditional leaders, and it's so strong that an attempt by the military regime to remove the queen from banknotes was met with widespread resistance. In Nepal, where the monarchy was overthrown less than a decade ago, restorationist sentiment is palpable and growing. Monarchist parties made gains in the most recent elections and the failure to achieve stability, coupled with a BJP government in India, could lead Nepal back to monarchy. In Laos, monarchy is the only real alternative to the regime at present as far as I am aware, but I don't know much about Laos. In Yemen Saleh was making boogeymen out of monarchists a few years ago, and the Georgian opposition had been commenting on a possible restoration.

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

[Simfan34]

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

you do realise that andreas eschbach is a fiction author?

Who? What?

[Simfan34]

Of course, I am not mentioning the more contentious and more personal possibilities of Iranian or more importantly Ethiopian restoration. Fun fact, apparently 1 out of 5 Germans, and 1 out of 3 young people there, support restoring the Hohenzollerns.

you do realise that andreas eschbach is a fiction author?

Who? What?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ein_K%C3%B6nig_f%C3%BCr_Deutschland

What does this have to do with anything?

[Simfan34]

ugh

[Simfan34]

About Thailand I'll just say this: if Phibun--whose regime(s) were republican in all but name--didn't abolish the monarchy, I highly doubt anyone else is going to do so in the foreseeable future. The army's apparent "accord" with Vajiralongkorn is a rather new thing whose most explicit manifestation has so far been a cycling event in honour of the Queen.

Keep in mind the Crown Prince's strongest supporters have so far been elements of the red shirt movement (some of whom have taken to wearing shirts reading "We love the Crown Prince"). This is  presumably because of his reputed ties to Thaksin. Hence the "downtrodden masses" who would theoretically be the most inclined towards a revolutionary transformation of society are the ones who would be personally supportive of the Crown Prince. At the same time, while the yellow-shirts may personally detest him, the fervour of their royalism is such that one can almost certainly rule out a republican turn.

What happens when Vajiralongkorn ascends the throne, and if those ties to Thaksin prove to be less substantial than thought, is another matter, but overall there is sufficient reverence for the monarchy as an institution-- even if it is far less than that personally enjoyed by King Bhumibol-- to almost virtually guarantee its survival.

Elsewhere I continue to see an relatively optimistic picture. The Belgian monarchy will survive for as long as the country does; I don't see the Flemish opting to maintain what is a primarily francophone institution. Spain seems safe for now, and should remain so unless the country itself falls apart. I am a bit unsure of Sweden's prospects, if only because monarchy seems at odds with what I imagine to be "Swedish values"-- they've already taken the unprecedented step of stripping the King of most of his reserve powers, 40 years ago. The other European monarchies are of no concern.

The King of Morocco has his critics, but his government has continued its liberalising direction, and it's unlikely Islamists will be allowed to gain the upper hand, even if it requires force. In Jordan, the King continues his balancing act between native Bedouins and Palestinians, but unless the latter were to attain dominance (which would also likely mean the end of Jordan as we know it), the monarchy will probably continue. Keep in mind what force historically overthrew monarchies-- the army. It is unlikely the armies of these countries will turn on their patrons and legitimisers. The Gulf States will almost certainly remain monarchies as long as the native minorities retain control-- with the exception of Bahrain. Saudi Arabia may break up, but I would hazard that at least one successor state would be a monarchy. The same could be said of Libya.

Elsewhere I see little risk. Just as Lee Kuan Yew continued to pay lip service to Singaporean Malays after independence, I doubt that a Sino-Indian run Malaysia (which I don't think is demographically possible, anyway) would risk antagonising Malays to such an extent. One imagines Sihamoni will take a cue from his father and nominate an inoffensive heir.

I remain convinced that we are today more likely, in terms of simple probability, to see a restored monarchy than we are to see one abolished.

Indeed, there is the outside possibility that a ruling family in some country, perhaps intending to appeal to "traditional values", might dispose of republican pretences and formally themselves a proper monarchy-- one might even argue that North Korea has already done this when it amended its constitution to mandate that its leader belong to the Kim family. We have already seen the curious institution of the "President-for-Life" and the even more curious institution of republican hereditary succession, so it's not out of the question that someone somewhere might someday make the full leap. 

Failing any of this, King Farouk's observation, in my mind, remains pertinent as ever-- if there is one monarchy left in the end, it will be the British. I'm ignoring the Commonwealth realms, but considering that 60% of Jamaicans think they'd be better off if they'd stayed a British colony, I doubt that particular Commonwealth realm is going anywhere anytime soon. 

[Simfan34]

I don't think many leaders (Kims aside) will do a Bakassa and self-style themselves as monarchs anymore. Most modern dictators these days are too technocratic for that sort of stuff. I mean even Gadaffi didn't try that!

I suppose the hard thing about predicting this is it is very dependent on the volatile actions of individuals. After all, if it wasn't for Prince Dipendra going Columbine on his family, the Nepalese monarchy would probably be muddling along in power by now.

Agreed. Although there'd be an issue of what happens once he became King. Would he have made Vajiralongkorn look like a paragon of virtue... and the latest I've heard of him is that he was seen doing some late-night tandem parachuting with a minor concubine at Don Mueang Airport-- in the nude.

All of them. It`s quite reliable institute. Though I have doubts about unstable African continent, Togo and Lesotho, for example.

Indeed, I am very concerned about the Togolese monarchy's prospects.