Cool chart showing the changing US murder rate over time
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:25:14 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Chancellor Tanterterg)
  Cool chart showing the changing US murder rate over time
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Cool chart showing the changing US murder rate over time  (Read 2730 times)
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: July 04, 2014, 06:15:39 PM »

Still way to go to reach 1900 levels again (and therefore European levels).

A bit difficult to achieve when the United States lacks European demographics.

Please explain exactly what you mean by this Smiley

In order to minimize the influence of background variables (and consequently make a Type I error in favor of a misguided policy proposal), one should compare people of similar ethnic and socioeconomic background in both jurisdictions, and then determine which jurisdiction has lower homicide rates within each subgroup.

And ethnic identity is important because...?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: July 04, 2014, 06:28:05 PM »

In order to minimize the influence of background variables (and consequently make a Type I error in favor of a misguided policy proposal), one should compare people of similar ethnic and socioeconomic background in both jurisdictions, and then determine which jurisdiction has lower homicide rates within each subgroup. One could have varying theories as to why these variations among subgroups exist (whether they be environmental consequences or, gasp, genetic), but to simply pretend they don't exist and persist in making a direct comparison of two disparate jurisdictions is deceitful.

Ah, I see. Racism then. Well, you do have a yellow avatar.
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,174
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: July 04, 2014, 06:29:13 PM »

In order to minimize the influence of background variables (and consequently make a Type I error in favor of a misguided policy proposal), one should compare people of similar ethnic and socioeconomic background in both jurisdictions, and then determine which jurisdiction has lower homicide rates within each subgroup. One could have varying theories as to why these variations among subgroups exist (whether they be environmental consequences or, gasp, genetic), but to simply pretend they don't exist and persist in making a direct comparison of two disparate jurisdictions is deceitful.

Ah, I see. Racism then. Well, you do have a yellow avatar.

Al, don't be so harsh.  He's not a racist, he's a race realist. Sad
Logged
Mopsus
MOPolitico
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.71, S: -1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: July 05, 2014, 08:32:55 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2014, 08:35:10 AM by MOP »

For the record, I looked up the homicide rates in France and Massachusetts, a European country and an American state that I figured would have similar demographics. Massachusetts turned out to have the higher homicide rate, despite it having both a whiter population and a higher per capita income, as I later found out. What do you make of this comparison, SPC?
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,004
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: July 05, 2014, 11:10:31 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2014, 11:15:42 AM by SPC »

Still way to go to reach 1900 levels again (and therefore European levels).

A bit difficult to achieve when the United States lacks European demographics.

Please explain exactly what you mean by this Smiley

In order to minimize the influence of background variables (and consequently make a Type I error in favor of a misguided policy proposal), one should compare people of similar ethnic and socioeconomic background in both jurisdictions, and then determine which jurisdiction has lower homicide rates within each subgroup.

And ethnic identity is important because...?



Again, one can have varying theories about why such a difference exists. Personally, I feel that the culture of dependency created by Great Society programs combined with disproportionate effects of the War on Drugs are far more responsible for such a disparity than intrinsic differences. However, to make a comparison with the implicit purpose of a policy recommendation without discussing the elephant in the room is nothing short of dishonest.

For the record, I looked up the homicide rates in France and Massachusetts, a European country and an American state that I figured would have similar demographics. Massachusetts turned out to have the higher homicide rate, despite it having both a whiter population and a higher per capita income, as I later found out. What do you make of this comparison, SPC?

Massachusetts is not exactly known as a haven for permissive gun laws, to say the least. In fact, it appears that France is actually more permissive in some areas, such as magazine restrictions and "assault weapons." Thus, I'm not quite sure what the point of your comparison is.
Logged
Mopsus
MOPolitico
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.71, S: -1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: July 05, 2014, 01:58:28 PM »

For the record, I looked up the homicide rates in France and Massachusetts, a European country and an American state that I figured would have similar demographics. Massachusetts turned out to have the higher homicide rate, despite it having both a whiter population and a higher per capita income, as I later found out. What do you make of this comparison, SPC?

Massachusetts is not exactly known as a haven for permissive gun laws, to say the least. In fact, it appears that France is actually more permissive in some areas, such as magazine restrictions and "assault weapons." Thus, I'm not quite sure what the point of your comparison is.

The point of my comparison was to more closely examine your contention that the homicide rates of the United States and Europe cannot be compared due to demographic differences, which I did by comparing the murder rates of an American state and a European country with similar demographics. But if that comparison is unfair because Massachusetts has stricter gun control laws, we can easily replace Massachusetts with New Hampshire - the latter, a state that is known as a haven of permissive gun laws - and France with Austria, whose demographics are similar to New Hampshire's.

Now, according to the most readily available information, New Hampshire's homicide rate is 1.1 murders per 100,000 people, contrasted with 0.9 murders per 100,000 people in Austria. Given that New Hampshire is marginally whiter and has more lenient gun control laws than Austria, this doesn't exactly endorse the claim that the primary influences on the murder rate are gun control and race.
Logged
Indy Texas
independentTX
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,258
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: July 05, 2014, 03:23:52 PM »

I don't buy people who blame our crime rates on demographics or mental health.

(1) Mental health issues are not something unique to Americans. As Barack Obama once said, "The United States does not have a monopoly on crazy people."

(2) European countries haven't been perfectly homogenous Buchananite fantasy lands for years. All Western European countries have sizable immigrant populations from Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Asia. And their immigrant groups are in many cases just as marginalized and discriminated against as blacks have been in America (with the added issue of differences in language and religion).

It's also somewhat troubling that people who follow this line of thought are content to simply say, "Oh well, it's just those black and brown people," rather than be willing to make the effort and investment necessary to correct those systemic problems. They act as if non-white people are inherently incorrigible and the only logical thing to do is for white people to shut themselves up in gated communities and shoot first, ask questions later.
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,004
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: July 05, 2014, 10:21:07 PM »

(2) European countries haven't been perfectly homogenous Buchananite fantasy lands for years. All Western European countries have sizable immigrant populations from Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Asia. And their immigrant groups are in many cases just as marginalized and discriminated against as blacks have been in America (with the added issue of differences in language and religion).

Africans, Middle Easterners, Eastern Europeans, and Asians aren't African-Americans. America has a populations of those minorities as well that could be compared to their European counterparts if one were truly interested in doing an apples-to-apples comparison. Simply trying to fit round ethnic groups in the square African-American hole because they both vaguely fit similar roles in one's preferred socioeconomic theory is a dubious methodology. Additionally, for all the talk of Europe being flooded from immigrants, virtually every European country is more ethnically homogeneous than the United States.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

You are making the straw-man argument of assuming that just because I do not endorse rendering minorities defenseless against criminals that I do not support correcting such problems. On the contrary, I already named the welfare mentality and drug prohibition as possible contributing factors to the disproportionately high crime rate among African-Americans.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: July 05, 2014, 10:35:15 PM »

Still way to go to reach 1900 levels again (and therefore European levels).
The 1900 stats are very dubious. Crime reporting wasn't all that consistent in theold days. If a black person was murdered, or lynched, local enforcement didn't always take it seriously. Also, denying that there is a racial element to the high American murder rate is rather counter-productive to anybody who sincerely cares about murders as a real problem. Oddly enough, it's also something only white people do. Black people, the overwhelming majority of whom are not murderers, of course, do not kid themselves about the problems in their communities. They know better than anybody what's going on.
Also, part of the drop in recent years is about improvements in medical treatment. It's only a murder if the victim dies. Trauma units can do amazing things today, and you see a similar reduction in deaths from motor vehicle accidents.

Don't forget Kevlar, the polymer behind -- or creating, more specifically - the bullet-proof vests that many police officers now wear. Crooks used to be able to shoot a cop in the lungs, heart, or abdomen  and leave a cop to die. Now the crook shoots at the cop's chest, and the cop shoots back at the would-be cop-killer who then dies -- or tries to shoot at the cop's head, which is still a fatal shot, but such requires that the crook take a more time-consuming aim than the cop, who then plugs the crook; this turns would-be cop-killing into suicide by cop.

As for deaths from motor vehicle collisions -- drunk or drugged driving is now prosecuted more automatically and at a lower threshold. Due to the building of expressways, vehicle collisions are less common and less severe. The head-on collisions that killed so many people on two-lane blacktops are becoming less frequent. Even the older state highways are being re-engineered with turn lanes that reduce rear-end collisions that can also kill. Collapsible steering wheels greatly reduce deaths from impalement of drivers. Seat belts are common and seat-belt laws are rigidly enforced. Child safety seats are the norm.  

As for law enforcement in the late 1900s -- it was far easier to get away with murder. Arsenic "inheritance powder" poisoning was much like cholera in effect... but today, arsenic residues in a corpse or even ashes give cause for investigation.    
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.042 seconds with 12 queries.