If Romney had won in 2012...
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  If Romney had won in 2012...
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Author Topic: If Romney had won in 2012...  (Read 846 times)
Del Tachi
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« on: June 29, 2014, 10:37:16 PM »

how would this year's midterm contests be shaping up?

Generally speaking, Democratic Senate incumbents would be in better shape but very few GOP seats are even able to be put into play.

Republican governors probably get curbstopped though.  Big loses in FL, WI, OH, and probably even GA and AZ. 
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badgate
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2014, 10:42:34 PM »

Three major things that IMO make it hard to imagine what the midterms would look like:

-Romney's first 100 days/legislative agenda in 2013 and early 2014
-The Government shutdown (would it have happened? Would it have happened because of Ted Cruz and the House? Or would Democrats have shut down the government by refusing to allow Romney to repeal the ACA, or something along those lines?)
-The implementation of the ACA, were it to stay law. IMO, it would be inevitable that healthcare.gov would still be a huge mess. Perhaps Romney could have talked a few red state Republican Govs into taking a private version of the Medicaid expansion.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2014, 10:55:13 PM »

I've always imagined that Romney would try to effectivly repeal the ACA by bogging-down its implementation in the bowels of an executive branch reconfigured to his liking.  No need to get Congress involved, he can basically selectively enforce the law through his Constitutional powers as President (at least for a while anyway). 
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TX Conservative Dem
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« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2014, 11:13:51 AM »

If Romney had won, his focus would have been entirely on the economy: such as repealing Obamacare for good. Putting more emphasis on small businesses, reinvesting in job creation, etc.,

McAuliffe still would have won the VA governorship regardless in 2013 and Christie would've still won big by the same margin in this TL such as RL.

On the 2014 midterms, that would depend on Romney's approval ratings in how the economic numbers and foreign policy would turn out to see if the Senate stays Democratic or goes into GOP hands.

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NHLiberal
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« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2014, 11:21:26 AM »

McAuliffe still would have won the VA governorship regardless in 2013 and Christie would've still won big by the same margin in this TL such as RL.

I don't think you understand what a timeline is.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2014, 11:25:27 AM »

If Mitt Romney won in 2012, I could see the Democrats making pretty big gains in the Gubernatorial races and maybe a 5-10 seat gain in the House of Representatives in the 2014 midterms.

The Senate races, on the other hand, are a bit more complicated. I think that Mike Rounds, Shelly Moore Capito, Tom Cotton and Steve Daines would still be favored to win if Mitt Romney was elected, while Allison Lundergan Grimes and Michelle Nunn would have a much greater shot at winning in their respective races. Furthermore, Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan would probably be favored for re-election with Mitt Romney as President. All in all, there would turn out to be a two seat gain for the Republicans in the 2014 Senate Elections.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2014, 12:04:02 PM »

The conventional wisdom is that the incumbent party loses seats, but this would really depend on how Republicans performed Congressionally in 2012.

Did they nominate the same candidates in 2012? Did they still nominate Mourdock and Akin, or keep Indiana and pick up Missouri with Lugar and Steelman/some other Missouri Repub? Those 2 seats would mean the Senate stayed the same, unless better performances led to the GOP picking up seats in Montana, ND, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. etc. I'm guessing the Democrats would still control the Senate 53-47 or so. Either way, 2014 would not allow many pick-up opportunities, so Senate Dems would still play a safe defense game with limited offense in KY and Georgia.

For the House, they probably could've increased their majority slightly from 242 to 250-260, which would mean the Democrats could take back at most about 30 seats maybe?   It would take something massive for them to take the House with such a gerrymandered map.

The real opportunity would be Governorships, where I think the Democrats would fight hard for Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania (obviously), Florida, Maine, Kansas, Nevada, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Alaska. It would be much as they are doing now, but if the mood is against the GOP it would be easier for them.

Basically, I don't think much would be different from real life right now, other than Republicans on the defense in the House and Gubernatorial elections. It really, really depends on how the 2012 elections turned out and how President Romney handled his first 1.5 years.
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TX Conservative Dem
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2014, 12:23:18 PM »

Big question is how Romney deals with Immigration Reform and by what alternatives to solving the illegal immigration crisis ?

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