3 candidates: a black man, a white man and a white woman

[buritobr]

In 1926, Brazilian writer Monteiro Lobato wrote "The Black President" a sci-fi novel about a crazy scientist who could predict the future using a glass globe. Through his globe, he saw the election of the first black president in the United States of America, which happened in 2228. In this election, there were three candidates. Kellog, a white conservative man, was the current president and he was seeking the reelection. Evelyn Astor was a feminist white woman. Jim Roy was the black candidate. Evelyn Astor created the Party of the Women, and feeling the threat, Kellog merged the Democratic and the Republican parties and created the Party of the Men. Jim Roy was the leader of the Black Association.
Racial issues were the main issues of that election. Kellog wanted to send all the blacks to the Amazon Forest. Jim Roy wanted to divide the USA, so that the whites could live in the North and the blacks could live in the South.
The author did not mention the Electoral College, but he told that every white men voted for Kellog, every white women voted for Astor and every black men and women voted for Roy. So, Roy had 60 million of popular votes. Kellog had 50 million and Astor had 50 million too. Lobato predicted correctly that the share of the African Americans in the total population would be bigger than it was in 1926, but he overstimated this share. And the total number of popular votes was closer to today numbers than to the numbers of the 1924 presidential election.
And in 2228, the newspapers had no paper. People read the news at their homes through a screen, in which they could read the characters. These characters were sent to the screens through the telephone lines.
Well, on the eve of the innauguration, Jim Roy was murdered. Kellog got married with Astor, another election took place and Kellog was reelected. A drug was sold to all the blacks. They didn't know that this drug was intended to destroy their fertility. So, no new black children were born anymore and the African American population gradually dissapeared.


Now, what if this story happened in the real life? Consider the 2010s numbers. If an election had three candidates, a white man, a white woman and a black man. All the white men vote for the white man, all the white women vote for the white woman and all the blacks, no matter the gender, vote for the black man. Consider that the hispanic and the asians vote for the black man too. How would the map of the Electoral College look like. The black man would carry all the states where the share of the minorities in the population is more than 1/3. I believe that the white woman would carry most of the other states, because the female population is slightly bigger than the male population.

[buritobr]

Wasn't this basically 2008?

Not the same aftermath

[buritobr]

In that 1926 novel, it was predicted that the USA would have 300 million inhabitants in 2228, the year when the first black president would be elected. As I told before, this fictitious election had 160 million voters. 100 million were white and 60 million were black. So, the white share of the vote was 62,5% and the black share was 37,5%.
The book did not mention latinos and asians. If the non-hispanic whites are considered white and the black, the lations (including the white ones) and the asian are considered non-white, the proportion according to the recent demography in the USA is exactly 62,5% white and 37,5% non-white.

So, if every non-white, no matter the gender, vote for the black man, every white men vote for the white man, and every white women vote for the white woman, the black man would win all the states where the minorities correspond to >1/3 of the total population, the white woman would win the states where the whites correspond to >2/3 of the total population and the majority of the population is female, and the white man would win the states where the whites correspond to >2/3 of the total population and the majority of the population is male.

According to the demography of the states in 2012, the electoral map would be this one

Red: states won by the black man
Blue: states won by the white woman
Green: states won by the white man

[Meursault]

This novel sounds amazing. I love how obvious early science fiction is - the 'Black Association' and the 'Party of Men', for example.

Has it been printed in English? Or perhaps had a film adaptation made?

[NHLiberal]

the white woman would win the states where the whites correspond to >2/3 of the total population and the majority of the population is female, and the white man would win the states where the whites correspond to >2/3 of the total population and the majority of the population is male.

That's not necessarily true though. If a majority of a state is male, that doesn't mean the majority of whites are male, and if a majority of a state is female, that doesn't mean the majority of whites are female.

[buritobr]

This novel sounds amazing. I love how obvious early science fiction is - the 'Black Association' and the 'Party of Men', for example.

Has it been printed in English? Or perhaps had a film adaptation made?

I think there is no version in English. This novel was forgotten for a long time even in Brazil. Monteiro Lobato was famous because of his books for children. The most famous one is The Yellow Woodpecker Farm. Only in 2008, The Black President became a best-seller in Brazil.
Monteiro Lobato wrote The Black President in 1926 when he was appointed to work in the Brazilian consulate in the USA. He was trying to reach the American market. He looked for a publisher to translate the novel to English but no publisher wanted to do that.

I think there will never be a film adaptation. The novel can be considered racist in some parts. The main character of the novel is the daughter of the scientist. She lives in Brazil in 1926, she reads the globe and tells what is happening in the USA in 2228. While she tells the story, she tells her personal opinions. And she considers good that in the USA blacks and whites are segregated, and she considers bad that in Brazil, interracial marriages are more usual. The opinion of the character might reflect the opinion of the author.
Since both Brazil and USA have large black population, no film studio in Brazil and in the USA will produce na adaptation that might be considered racist.