If Romney had won in 2012...

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The conventional wisdom is that the incumbent party loses seats, but this would really depend on how Republicans performed Congressionally in 2012.

Did they nominate the same candidates in 2012? Did they still nominate Mourdock and Akin, or keep Indiana and pick up Missouri with Lugar and Steelman/some other Missouri Repub? Those 2 seats would mean the Senate stayed the same, unless better performances led to the GOP picking up seats in Montana, ND, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc. etc. I'm guessing the Democrats would still control the Senate 53-47 or so. Either way, 2014 would not allow many pick-up opportunities, so Senate Dems would still play a safe defense game with limited offense in KY and Georgia.

For the House, they probably could've increased their majority slightly from 242 to 250-260, which would mean the Democrats could take back at most about 30 seats maybe?   It would take something massive for them to take the House with such a gerrymandered map.

The real opportunity would be Governorships, where I think the Democrats would fight hard for Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania (obviously), Florida, Maine, Kansas, Nevada, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Alaska. It would be much as they are doing now, but if the mood is against the GOP it would be easier for them.

Basically, I don't think much would be different from real life right now, other than Republicans on the defense in the House and Gubernatorial elections. It really, really depends on how the 2012 elections turned out and how President Romney handled his first 1.5 years.