2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2014

[Senator Cris]

I have decided to open this poll all the months for see the opinion of the forum and make comparison with the precedent month.

The results of June (in parentheses the variations with May).

Jeb Bush 28,4% (+ 3,1%)
Rand Paul 12,3% (- 10,4%)
Scott Walker 12,3% (- 2,4%)
Chris Christie 6,2% (- 0,5%)
Mike Pence 6,2% (+ 0,9%)
Ted Cruz 4,9% (+ 2,2%)
Marco Rubio 3,7% (+ 2,4%)
Mitt Romney 2,5% (- 0,2%)
Brian Sandoval 2,5% (+ 1,2%)
Paul Ryan 2,5% (+ 1,2%)
John Kasich 2,5% (+ 1,2%)
Sarah Palin 1,2% (- 1,5%)
Mike Huckabee 1,2% (- 0,1%)
Rick Santorum 1,2% (- 0,1%)
Rob Portman 1,2% (- 0,1%)
John Huntsman 1,2% (- 0,1%)
Donald Trump 1,2% (- 0,1%)
Rick Perry 1,2% (- 0,1%)
Condi Rice 1,2% (- 0,1%)
Susana Martinez 1,2% (- 0,1%)
Peter King 1,2% (+ 1,2%)
Nikki Haley 1,2% (+ 1,2%)
Joe Scarborough 1,2% (+ 1,2%)
Other 1,2% (+ 1,2%)
Ben Carson 0% (- 1,3%)
Tim Pawlenty 0% (=)
John Bolton 0% (=)
Scott Brown 0% (=)
Bobby Jindal 0% (=)
Steve King 0% (=)
Rick Synder 0% (=)
Allen West 0% (=)
John Thune 0% (=)
Kelly Ayotte 0% (=)
Mary Fallin 0% (=)
Sam Brownback 0% (=)

Graphic:



Top 11:

[Rockefeller GOP]

Christie.

[Bull Moose Base]

PPP tweeted this yesterday.

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If Bush runs, his rivals will make sure they find out he's the biggest proponent of Common Core. There are only a few Republican candidates with few vulnerabilities in a primary: Cruz, Jindal, Walker and Pence. Cruz and Jindal look more likely to run than Pence or Walker (given the uncertainty of what happens in Walker's re-election and the investigation of the recall race). Between Cruz and Jindal, Cruz has shown much more political talent than Jindal. So he's the likeliest nominee for now.

[Suburbia]

Pence. He's the real deal. After him, maybe Bush (unless Cruz/Santorum/Huckabee stumble), or Thune.

[Maistre]

Christie probably will not even run. Bush will be in an even worse place than Romney was. He will have a field of smart opponents with lots of money to throw around, and plus Bush won't be as soullessly pandering as Romney was. If immigration doesn't kill him, common core will. If Bush doesn't run, I think the establishment donors will first beg somebody like Ryan to run or line up behind Rubio.

Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are pulling from the same group. If Rand pulls the trigger first (as I imagine he will), I think Cruz might stay out (I can't see the opposite happening though). To be honest, I can't imagine Rand getting the nomination. He is a treasure trove of "gaffes" (which is an inappropriate word because it implies the statement is unintentional, and I fully believe Rand willfully believed most of the stuff about Cheney and the like.)

It's possible that the establishment candidate and insurgent candidate (probably Bush and Paul respectively) are both deemed to be crippled, and a dark horse governor like Walker, Pence, or Jindal might gain some traction.

If Ted Cruz is able to monopolize the TP crowd, I don't think there's much stopping him from taking the nomination because he is clearly the most talented of the group. Rubio might be able to make a play for the TP people, but I think he would be squeezed out between Paul and Cruz.

So, I say Cruz for now.

[IceSpear]

I'm tentatively sticking with Walker, until we see the full impact of the allegations against him.

[BaconBacon96]

I have no goddamn clue anymore, so I went with Ben Carson.

[Liberalrocks]

I think there are too many options in this and the past monthly polls. I believe it should be reduced down to the candidates pulling more then 1 vote.

[Lief 🗽]

Bush supports Common Core and immigration reform. He's not going to win a Republican primary.

[Eraserhead]

You guys really think Bush is going to win? lol.

[rpryor03]

Kasich

[Rockefeller GOP]

You guys really think Bush is going to win? lol.

I know everyone likes to make fun of how crazy the GOP has gotten, but moderates remain a sibnicant portion of the party, and (more importantly) they're usually much more united behind a candidate than social conservatives or Tea Partiers.

[NHLiberal]

You guys really think Bush is going to run? lol.

Fixed

[Maxwell]

Rand Paul.

Walker's getting bloodied up, Bush has too much of his fathers appearance of "competence" and too little of his brothers charisma or at least ability to rile up any support from the base, Christie is WAY too bloodied up, Ryan doesn't care, Rubio is a joke, Cruz can't win, and the rest nobody cares about or will care about (and yes, I'm including Thomas Dewey re-incarnate). It's too early, but I think Paul has a very good shot.

[Suburbia]

Rand Paul.

Walker's getting bloodied up, Bush has too much of his fathers appearance of "competence" and too little of his brothers charisma or at least ability to rile up any support from the base, Christie is WAY too bloodied up, Ryan doesn't care, Rubio is a joke, Cruz can't win, and the rest nobody cares about or will care about (and yes, I'm including Thomas Dewey re-incarnate). It's too early, but I think Paul has a very good shot.

Why not Pence?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I still think the establishment will come knocking on Romney's door to beg him to run. If Maxwell's appraisal of the state of the race is true (and I think it is; the other establishment candidates have eliminated themselves from contention), there's a case for Mitt. And he'll see it himself. If the choices are Rand Paul and a bunch of crazies, Mitt will feel obliged to take a stab at it, even if he has to drag Ann with him.

[Maxwell]

Rand Paul.

Walker's getting bloodied up, Bush has too much of his fathers appearance of "competence" and too little of his brothers charisma or at least ability to rile up any support from the base, Christie is WAY too bloodied up, Ryan doesn't care, Rubio is a joke, Cruz can't win, and the rest nobody cares about or will care about (and yes, I'm including Thomas Dewey re-incarnate). It's too early, but I think Paul has a very good shot.

Why not Pence?

Pence would be good running mate material, but I think he's too low key, though he does have the Presidential look.

[GLPman]

No idea anymore. Gonna go with Kasich as a potential dark horse candidate.

[Eraserhead]

You guys really think Bush is going to run? lol.

Fixed

Well, yeah. I think that's pretty unlikely as well.

[tmthforu94]

Mitt Romney - I wouldn't mind Bob Corker if he took the plunge, though I doubt he could gain much traction.

[Maistre]

Romney had to financially drown Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum to win. Some of you must be smoking some powerful stuff to think Romney 2016 can happen.

[SPC]

Rand Paul.

Walker's getting bloodied up, Bush has too much of his fathers appearance of "competence" and too little of his brothers charisma or at least ability to rile up any support from the base, Christie is WAY too bloodied up, Ryan doesn't care, Rubio is a joke, Cruz can't win, and the rest nobody cares about or will care about (and yes, I'm including Thomas Dewey re-incarnate). It's too early, but I think Paul has a very good shot.

I certainly hope you're right. While I generally pessimistic about the Republican Party ever nominating somewhat both ideologically sound and electable (in the back of my mind I sense that they will successfully resurrect Bush or Christie a la McCain 2008), I suspect that Paul may be well positioned to replicate the McCain 2008 strategy. Based on his father's iconoclasm and deviations from GOP orthodoxy on foreign affairs and crime, Paul seems well-positioned to win moderate and Independent crossover voters, as paradoxical as that sounds. While Paul intuitively seems like the best choice for the Kemp/Forbes/Romney conservatives, they may at least initially prefer a candidate more palatable to Republican fiscal orthodoxy, such as Ryan, Rubio, or Walker. Despite his evangelical pandering, the Falangist wing will ultimately coalesce behind one candidate (Cruz, Carson, or Huckabee) who will proceed to go absolutely nowhere besides winning Iowa and a few Southern primaries. That leaves the somewhat conservatives, who most likely will coalesce behind the respectable establishment option that emerges after the early primaries (Bush, Christie, Dewey, Walker, or Kasich). The latter choice will most likely be the nominee unless Paul can successfully use the divide et impera strategy.

The way I see it, the most fruitful strategy to achieve this would be to skip Iowa (and consequently, lay off the evangelical rhetoric) and devote resources to New Hampshire and South Carolina. A win in New Hampshire on the backs of Independents and some fiscons would leave the establishment forces in disarray trying to arrange a deus ex machina event for their preferred candidate in the South Carolina primary a la Gingrich 2012. Touting realism while avoiding touching the third rail like his father would be the least bad tactic to employ here. Ultimately, the goal is to convince somewhat conservative voters that holding out for their preferred establishment option is not a viable alternative, and voting for Paul is the only way to avert a general election catastrophe with a nominee from the Falangist wing. As consolation, Paul can stick somewhat acceptable to both establishment types and general election voters in the VP spot, and hope that John Hinckley, Jr. doesn't have any copycats.

[ShadowRocket]

I think it'll be someone currently considered a dark horse; probably Kasich or Pence. I voted Kasich.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm still going with Walker. I'm sceptical about the degree to which scandals will hit him - after all they never stopped Bill Clinton (granted that was pre-24 hours news cycle).

[Likely Voter]

Still Pence, but no one has more than a 10-15% chance at this point. never seen something so wide open.

And I still think Perry is totally underrated. I think he will bounce back.