Illinois Executive Mansion 2014: Who will win on November 4th ?

[TX Conservative Dem]

In the hotly contested race for the Illinois Executive Mansion between incumbent Governor Patrick Quinn (D), whose seeking a 2nd full term and Bruce Rauner (R), who is trying to win the Land of Lincoln's highest office for GOPers for the 1st time since 1998, who do y'all think will win the governorship come November and by what margin of victory ?

[windjammer]

Quinn is the John Barrow of Illinois, so him.

[NHLiberal]

Neither Patrick Quinn nor Bill Rauner will be elected Governor of Illinois this November

[Miles]

Tilting towards Quinn.

[ElectionsGuy]

Neither Patrick Quinn nor Bill Rauner will be elected Governor of Illinois this November

Right, it will be Bruce Rauner.

[NHLiberal]

Neither Patrick Quinn nor Bill Rauner will be elected Governor of Illinois this November

Right, it will be Bruce Rauner.

Exactly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Teachers Union always get their way, they wanted Blago and now CPS chief Vallas.

[muon2]

The Teachers Union always get their way, they wanted Blago and now CPS chief Vallas.

The last thing the teachers wanted was Vallas as the running mate. Here's a quote from the president of the Chicago Teacher's Union last fall after Vallas was selected.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[sg0508]

Whomever it is, +/- 5 years before he's in jail? haha

Quinn.  The IL GOP is near-inept.  They proved it by blowing the 2010 midterm to Quinn and they'll blow it this time.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Quinn only due to high Democratic turnout in Cook County.

[muon2]

Probably Quinn only due to high Democratic turnout in Cook County.

Turnout isn't high in Cook it's just highly Dem. Brady lost to Quinn because he couldn't cut into enough of the Cook/Chicago result. In Chicago Brady got 17.5% of the vote, but Kirk got 19.5% on the way to his statewide win. The conventional wisdom is that if a Pub breaks 20% in Chicago they will win statewide.

Half of Cook is in the suburbs, but include some very strong black and Latino areas. Brady lost suburban Cook by over 100K votes but Kirk lost by just over 60K. Kirk is from the suburbs and heavily campaigned there, compared to Brady who was significantly less visible.

Rauner is devoting most of his effort to Chicagoland to try to replicate Kirk's turnout pattern.

[ill ind]

  It all depensd on turnout and where.

  The turnout in the primary was 25% less than in 2010.  Will turnout be off significantly in the 2014 general vs 2010?
  Neither candidate is inspiring, and when push comes to shove, there will be millions shoveled into negative adds pummelling the other guy from both sides, which will likely depress turnout in November.
  In 2010, downstate turnout was 38% and Cook county 40%.  If the Dem organization can turn out its votes in 2012, they have a big leg up in a low turnout race.
  So it comes down to a Dem Cook County Machine vs the rest of the state in a race for who has the best turnout.

  If I had to pick: Quinn solely due to the Dem organization.


Ill_Ind

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm going with Rauner for now. Quinn is hated, Rauner is a much stronger candidate than Brady ever was, and democratic turnout will be lower than 2010 because democrats who hate quinn but don't like rauner either will probably just stay home. There hasn't been a single poll with Quinn leading in months upon us. Granted, things could change, but as of today, I see Rauner as having a roughly 64% chance of defeating Quinn.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Shamelessly self-quoting from a poll thread:

2014 is not 2010, guys. Quinn is in much worse shape now than he was then.


He raised taxes in 2011 after promising not to, and has alienated a lot of his union support. In 2010, his Reformer Image was still intact, and many people thought to themselves, "Let's give this guy a chance". All of that goodwill is gone. Quinn's poll numbers have collapsed across the board, even with Illinois Democrats. Illinois has lagged far behind the rest of the nation economically since then, even compared to other blue states.

That same election he won by 34,000 votes, Mark Kirk won the Senate race by 59,000 votes. In the collar counties, Kirk won with margins in the mid-to-high 50s, while Brady won with low-to-mid 50s. Kirk even won several Chicago precincts (if not neighborhoods, IIRC). That is what made the difference allowing Quinn and Kirk to win simultaneously.

Rauner is not Brady, Quinn is not as popular, and voters are pissed over the tax lie and other issues. Yes, the Democratic machine makes this race a toss-up even if Quinn would otherwise be doomed, but having such a narrow victory in 2010 when the fundamentals favored Quinn and going into 2014 means that we cannot and should not just brush this off as "Eh, the Dems will pull through. Like always."

[IceSpear]

Shamelessly self-quoting from a poll thread:

2014 is not 2010, guys. Quinn is in much worse shape now than he was then.


He raised taxes in 2011 after promising not to, and has alienated a lot of his union support. In 2010, his Reformer Image was still intact, and many people thought to themselves, "Let's give this guy a chance". All of that goodwill is gone. Quinn's poll numbers have collapsed across the board, even with Illinois Democrats. Illinois has lagged far behind the rest of the nation economically since then, even compared to other blue states.

That same election he won by 34,000 votes, Mark Kirk won the Senate race by 59,000 votes. In the collar counties, Kirk won with margins in the mid-to-high 50s, while Brady won with low-to-mid 50s. Kirk even won several Chicago precincts (if not neighborhoods, IIRC). That is what made the difference allowing Quinn and Kirk to win simultaneously.

Rauner is not Brady, Quinn is not as popular, and voters are pissed over the tax lie and other issues. Yes, the Democratic machine makes this race a toss-up even if Quinn would otherwise be doomed, but having such a narrow victory in 2010 when the fundamentals favored Quinn and going into 2014 means that we cannot and should not just brush this off as "Eh, the Dems will pull through. Like always."

Quinn ever had a "reformer image" or goodwill? I recall him being despised in 2010 with horrible approval ratings in the 20s.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Shamelessly self-quoting from a poll thread:

2014 is not 2010, guys. Quinn is in much worse shape now than he was then.


He raised taxes in 2011 after promising not to, and has alienated a lot of his union support. In 2010, his Reformer Image was still intact, and many people thought to themselves, "Let's give this guy a chance". All of that goodwill is gone. Quinn's poll numbers have collapsed across the board, even with Illinois Democrats. Illinois has lagged far behind the rest of the nation economically since then, even compared to other blue states.

That same election he won by 34,000 votes, Mark Kirk won the Senate race by 59,000 votes. In the collar counties, Kirk won with margins in the mid-to-high 50s, while Brady won with low-to-mid 50s. Kirk even won several Chicago precincts (if not neighborhoods, IIRC). That is what made the difference allowing Quinn and Kirk to win simultaneously.

Rauner is not Brady, Quinn is not as popular, and voters are pissed over the tax lie and other issues. Yes, the Democratic machine makes this race a toss-up even if Quinn would otherwise be doomed, but having such a narrow victory in 2010 when the fundamentals favored Quinn and going into 2014 means that we cannot and should not just brush this off as "Eh, the Dems will pull through. Like always."

Quinn ever had a "reformer image" or goodwill? I recall him being despised in 2010 with horrible approval ratings in the 20s.

His initial unpopularity stemmed from his relation to Blago as well as the falling popularity of the Democratic Party in the state. But yes he did have much personal goodwill, which is why core Democratic voters still turned out at levels to let him squeak by with the help of many independents, moderates, and suburbanites who were turned off by Brady's conservatism.

The 2010 gubernatorial was a candidate-centric election, and Brady won on that. Now Quinn will continue to try to replicate that by doing to Rauner what Obama did to Romney public-image wise, but 2014 is turning out to be more issue-centric and Quinn's personal popularity has suffered, so that's why Rauner seems to have a better chance now than Brady.

[TX Conservative Dem]

We'll find out.

[RRusso1982]

I say Rauner.  Rauner is no Brady.  I believe social conservativism is what did in Brady.  Rauner is more of a Jim Thompson/Jim Edgar/Mark Kirk Republican.  Fiscally conservative and socially moderate.  I believe that had Kirk not embellished his military record, he would have beaten Giannoulias by about 5 points, and may have managed to help Brady too.  Remember, Brady was slightly ahead in almost all the polls.  It was close enough for Quinn to Cook County his way to victory.  Rauner is ahead by more now than Brady ever was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dont you know that Rauner wasnt endorsed by Edgar in the GOP primary.  He was ahead in one poll by 10 pts. And Dold lost in 2012 to Schneider. He may be favorite now but we will see during debates.

[TX Conservative Dem]

How many debates did Quinn and Rauner agree to hold ?

[GaussLaw]

Rauner, hopefully.

Pat Quinn is a criminal Blago crony, a liar, and a Chicago political thug.  I would never, ever vote for him.  He is easily my least favorite D governor and I consider him the Rick Scott of the Democrats, minus a good economic record.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lisa Madigan who is the AG in the race has reconcilled with Quinn and hasnt put energy into investigating Quinn in the scandle.

Really, the person who will doing the bargining is Vallas, the Lt Gov nominee and the nxt gov, aftrr Quinn.

[NHLiberal]

Lisa Madigan who is the AG in the race has reconcilled with Quinn and hasnt put energy into investigating Quinn in the scandle.

Really, the person who will doing the bargining is Vallas, the Lt Gov nominee and the nxt gov, aftrr Quinn.

lol

[TX Conservative Dem]

How old is Vallas ?

I don't see him as Governor in 2018. Lisa Madigan ain't gonna wait her turn forever.

[NHLiberal]

How old is Vallas ?

I don't see him as Governor in 2018. Lisa Madigan ain't gonna wait her turn forever.

You just said he is the next Governor after Quinn...