Shamelessly self-quoting from a poll thread:
2014 is not 2010, guys. Quinn is in much worse shape now than he was then.
He raised taxes in 2011 after promising not to, and has alienated a lot of his union support. In 2010, his Reformer Image was still intact, and many people thought to themselves, "Let's give this guy a chance". All of that goodwill is gone. Quinn's poll numbers have collapsed across the board, even with Illinois Democrats. Illinois has lagged far behind the rest of the nation economically since then, even compared to other blue states.
That same election he won by 34,000 votes, Mark Kirk won the Senate race by 59,000 votes. In the collar counties, Kirk won with margins in the mid-to-high 50s, while Brady won with low-to-mid 50s. Kirk even won several Chicago precincts (if not neighborhoods, IIRC). That is what made the difference allowing Quinn and Kirk to win simultaneously.
Rauner is not Brady, Quinn is not as popular, and voters are pissed over the tax lie and other issues. Yes, the Democratic machine makes this race a toss-up even if Quinn would otherwise be doomed, but having such a narrow victory in 2010 when the fundamentals favored Quinn and going into 2014 means that we cannot and should not just brush this off as "Eh, the Dems will pull through. Like always."
Quinn ever had a "reformer image" or goodwill? I recall him being despised in 2010 with horrible approval ratings in the 20s.
Poll
