Illinois Executive Mansion 2014: Who will win on November 4th ?

[muon2]

The Teachers Union always get their way, they wanted Blago and now CPS chief Vallas.

The last thing the teachers wanted was Vallas as the running mate. Here's a quote from the president of the Chicago Teacher's Union last fall after Vallas was selected.

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[muon2]

Probably Quinn only due to high Democratic turnout in Cook County.

Turnout isn't high in Cook it's just highly Dem. Brady lost to Quinn because he couldn't cut into enough of the Cook/Chicago result. In Chicago Brady got 17.5% of the vote, but Kirk got 19.5% on the way to his statewide win. The conventional wisdom is that if a Pub breaks 20% in Chicago they will win statewide.

Half of Cook is in the suburbs, but include some very strong black and Latino areas. Brady lost suburban Cook by over 100K votes but Kirk lost by just over 60K. Kirk is from the suburbs and heavily campaigned there, compared to Brady who was significantly less visible.

Rauner is devoting most of his effort to Chicagoland to try to replicate Kirk's turnout pattern.