Would Kent Conrad have won reelection to the Senate in 2012?

[Del Tachi]

If Kent Conrad (D-ND) had decided to go for another term in 2012, would he have been able to defeat Rick Berg?

If Heidi could do it, why not Kent?

[Vosem]

Yes, and he wouldn't've been seriously challenged; he received his last close race in 1986, and afterwards he survived 1994 without any scratches and he was still broadly popular. He retired because he wanted to, not because he felt threatened by Berg, who lost to a significantly weaker candidate (unlike Dorgan in 2010, who Hoeven was preparing to crush by double-digits, though that was more a case of Hoeven's superior popularity than any fault of Dorgan's).

[windjammer]

Conrad would have won.
The race would have been at least lean Dem.

[SPC]

Wasn't Conrad damaged by the Countrywide scandal?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Maybe, but by a smaller margin though.

Heitkamp beat Berg by 3000 votes or about .5%, how could it get much closer than that?

[Del Tachi]

I actually think that, had he run for reelection in 2012, Conrad would have been the only Democratic incumbent to go down that year.

The NRSC probably gets a bit more serious about the ND race if they're challenging a sitting Senator, and Conrad's past votes and the Countrywide scandal mean he's more damaged that Heitkamp is in a GE. 

I think that's more than enough to erase Heitkamp's 3,000-vote edge over Berg. 

[Maxwell]

Conrad wouldn't have won. Heitkamp was a stronger candidate than him, untainted by Washington.