KY Sen: Grimes vs. McConnell: Who wins?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:29:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  KY Sen: Grimes vs. McConnell: Who wins?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Poll
Question: Who wins: Grimes or McConnell?
#1
Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
 
#2
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 111

Author Topic: KY Sen: Grimes vs. McConnell: Who wins?  (Read 7549 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,684
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 01, 2014, 06:07:27 PM »
« edited: July 01, 2014, 06:14:07 PM by bronz4141 »

Who will win and why? Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes or the Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell?
Logged
GaussLaw
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,279
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2014, 06:12:35 PM »

McConnell IMO, but AFP is going to need to deliver some assistance.
Logged
Supersonic
SupersonicVenue
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,162
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2014, 06:15:28 PM »

McConnell by 2-3 points.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2014, 06:19:49 PM »

I'd say Grimes, but we have to remember that The Media has been in the tank for McConnell the whole time.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2014, 06:31:12 PM »

I'd say Grimes, but we have to remember that The Media has been in the tank for McConnell the whole time.

Prepping the arguments for her loss already?

I do think McConnell is very vulnerable, Grimes will need the full force of the party machine behind her.

But I'm thinking McConnell: 50 Grimes: 47
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2014, 06:36:32 PM »

I'd say Grimes, but we have to remember that The Media has been in the tank for McConnell the whole time.



Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2014, 07:27:16 PM »

^ Jennifer Lawrence is from KY haha

Anyway:

Logged
NHLiberal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 790


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2014, 07:34:41 PM »

Grimes
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2014, 07:35:30 PM »

McConnell, by 5-6.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2014, 07:38:31 PM »

Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2014, 07:46:41 PM »

Grimes will win. Considering how McConnell has reacted and I'd say he's in real trouble, and will sink himself with a Godless type of attack on Grimes.
Logged
MadmanMotley
Bmotley
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,340
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -5.91

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2014, 09:34:22 PM »

McConnell in a very narrow margin.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2014, 10:16:16 PM »

Grimes by <2 points.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2014, 10:22:30 PM »

KY, like OK, has a large number of fake Dems, about 20%, who don't vote Democratic 99% of the time. Maybe they think it's fine for a Democrat to be Governor from time to time but nothing beyond that apparently. They tease Democrats in the polls but Grimes ceiling is 48-49%, and I don't even think that's happening. McConnell will get 50% or more.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2014, 10:48:47 PM »

With the loss of Eric Canter, Dems are embolden to try to help defeat a GOP leader. Grimes can beat the odds.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2014, 10:50:34 PM »

KY, like OK, has a large number of fake Dems, about 20%, who don't vote Democratic 99% of the time. Maybe they think it's fine for a Democrat to be Governor from time to time but nothing beyond that apparently. They tease Democrats in the polls but Grimes ceiling is 48-49%, and I don't even think that's happening. McConnell will get 50% or more.

By now, I think these "fake Dems" have given up pretending to be Democrats.
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2014, 09:47:11 AM »

KY, like OK, has a large number of fake Dems, about 20%, who don't vote Democratic 99% of the time. Maybe they think it's fine for a Democrat to be Governor from time to time but nothing beyond that apparently. They tease Democrats in the polls but Grimes ceiling is 48-49%, and I don't even think that's happening. McConnell will get 50% or more.

By now, I think these "fake Dems" have given up pretending to be Democrats.

How do we account for Democratic Gov. Steve Beshar winning by double-digits in 2011? Democrats still have a slight advantage in Kentucky, but considering the presence of Republicans elected statewide there, it seems plausible that there are people still identifying as Democrats, yet voting for the other major party.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2014, 09:49:31 AM »

How do we account for Democratic Gov. Steve Beshar winning by double-digits in 2011?

It is overall a Democratic state, unless you're talking about presidential elections. This is also true of West Virginia and Montana.

All these states have one thing in common: coal.
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2014, 09:54:29 AM »

How do we account for Democratic Gov. Steve Beshar winning by double-digits in 2011?

It is overall a Democratic state, unless you're talking about presidential elections. This is also true of West Virginia and Montana.

All these states have one thing in common: coal.

Still, for Kentucky to have two Republican senators, it seems that some Democrats there don't necessarily vote party-line. Considering that both Montana and West Virginia could both have a Republican senator after this midterm, it seems that there might be Democrats there as well who are willing to split the ticket.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2014, 09:57:04 AM »

Still, for Kentucky to have two Republican senators, it seems that some Democrats there don't necessarily vote party-line. Considering that both Montana and West Virginia could both have a Republican senator after this midterm, it seems that there might be Democrats there as well who are willing to split the ticket.

Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul really didn't win by that much last time they ran.
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2014, 10:09:30 AM »

Still, for Kentucky to have two Republican senators, it seems that some Democrats there don't necessarily vote party-line. Considering that both Montana and West Virginia could both have a Republican senator after this midterm, it seems that there might be Democrats there as well who are willing to split the ticket.

Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul really didn't win by that much last time they ran.

To be fair, McConnell last won in 2008, not exactly a banner year for Republicans, so we shouldn't really read into his five point victory. Furthermore, it could be argued that McConnell is a relatively weak candidate to begin with. Rand Paul, on the other hand, won by 11 points, and earned 55.8% of the vote in 2010, more than Democrat Gov. Beshar's 53.3% of the vote in the 2011 gubernatorial election. I wouldn't call Rand Paul's win a small one considering the political structure of Kentucky.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,951


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 02, 2014, 10:15:05 AM »

To be fair, McConnell last won in 2008, not exactly a banner year for Republicans, so we shouldn't really read into his five point victory.

But it was against Bruce Lunsford, who was about the weakest candidate the Democrats could possibly dredge up (unless they wanted to run Singapore Ken or someone).

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

That was when the Tea Party was throwing their little fit.
Logged
Never
Never Convinced
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,623
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2014, 10:20:18 AM »

To be fair, McConnell last won in 2008, not exactly a banner year for Republicans, so we shouldn't really read into his five point victory.

But it was against Bruce Lunsford, who was about the weakest candidate the Democrats could possibly dredge up (unless they wanted to run Singapore Ken or someone).

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

That was when the Tea Party was throwing their little fit.

Frankly, that's the Democratic party's fault for not fielding a stronger Senate candidate in 2008.

Just because Rand Paul won in a Republican year doesn't mean that it is impossible for him to win at any other time. If Paul runs for reelection in 2016 (when I highly doubt that the Tea Party will dominate), I'd venture to say that he would still win.
Logged
Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,827
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 02, 2014, 10:24:04 AM »

McConnell will defeat False Grimes comfortably.
Logged
illegaloperation
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 777


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2014, 11:50:04 AM »

McConnell will defeat False Grimes comfortably.

Did you get that after you unskew the polls?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 15 queries.