What does a Hillary coalition look like?
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  What does a Hillary coalition look like?
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Author Topic: What does a Hillary coalition look like?  (Read 1579 times)
illegaloperation
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« on: July 02, 2014, 02:10:34 PM »

In 2016, what does Hillary coalition look like?
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2014, 02:18:54 PM »

Single white women, 49-55% of young white voters (if Rand isn't running), Hispanics, non-bitter Blacks.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2014, 02:39:59 PM »

Single white women, 49-55% of young white voters (if Rand isn't running), Hispanics, non-bitter Blacks.

Sometimes black folks get bitter over being treated unfairly. For instance, when despite giving Hillary stronger level of support than any other group, someone (by omission) qualifies only the black people who don't support Hillary as bitter.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2014, 02:51:23 PM »

There was a 10% drop in support from Biden to Hillary among African-Americans in SUSA'S latest FL poll. Statistical noise? I think not.
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2014, 02:56:57 PM »

There was a 10% drop in support from Biden to Hillary among African-Americans in SUSA'S latest FL poll. Statistical noise? I think not.

They will likely come home and Hillary will get the typical 89-93% support among blacks but turnout will definitely not be the same. She will do moderately better among white women and other groups but she will aiming for the Obama coalition in order to win.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2014, 03:02:17 PM »

Hillary needs to cash in on the IOU that Bill got for her at the DNC, and have Obama campaign hard for her with the AA community.
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henster
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2014, 03:09:34 PM »

Hillary needs to cash in on the IOU that Bill got for her at the DNC, and have Obama campaign hard for her with the AA community.

That could be problematic if Obama's approval ratings remain underwater. Her and him actively campaigning with each other could hurt her with swing voters.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2014, 03:24:47 PM »

Same as Obama's in 2012, but performing at Kerry/Obama 08 levels with whites. She may do a tad better among Hispanics, but Dems may have reached a ceiling with them in 2012. She also may do a bit worse among blacks due to reduced turnout.
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« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2014, 05:34:52 PM »

Voters under 40.  White Women.  Asians + Hispanics.  Try to hold as much Black support as possible.  Gays and Lesbians.  Jewish voters.

She will probably do better than Obama among all these groups except Blacks and voters under 40.  Still more than enough to win.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2014, 07:25:40 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2014, 07:27:11 PM by illegaloperation »

Voters under 40.  White Women.  Asians + Hispanics.  Try to hold as much Black support as possible.  Gays and Lesbians.  Jewish voters.

She will probably do better than Obama among all these groups except Blacks and voters under 40.  Still more than enough to win.

Wouldn't Hillary do worse among Hispanics? This likely has nothing Obama, but rather that Hillary probably won't face an opponent that advocate "self-deportation".

Also, African American might not be such a problem. After all, they did turnout in an odd year for a some dude McAuliffe.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2014, 07:59:30 PM »

Voters under 40.  White Women.  Asians + Hispanics.  Try to hold as much Black support as possible.  Gays and Lesbians.  Jewish voters.

She will probably do better than Obama among all these groups except Blacks and voters under 40.  Still more than enough to win.

Wouldn't Hillary do worse among Hispanics? This likely has nothing Obama, but rather that Hillary probably won't face an opponent that advocate "self-deportation".

Also, African American might not be such a problem. After all, they did turnout in an odd year for a some dude McAuliffe.

The death of immigration reform (at least until after Obama leaves office) will be a huge millstone around the neck of the 2016 Republican nominee -- and that's before we get to whatever bigoted contortions the nominee will have to twist himself into to get through the GOP primary.  Polls suggested that if immigration reform died, Latino voters would blame the GOP by a 3-1 margin.  And Clinton has been courting the Latino community for a long time -- since the 1990s.  Her performance in the 2008 primary suggests her brand is well-established there.

I think the recent Hobby Lobby ruling and utterly crass reaction from several right-wing men could have a similar galvanizing effect on women voters and Clinton is well-positioned to take advantage there as well.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2014, 08:45:58 PM »

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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2014, 09:15:53 PM »


Is this your clever way of saying "Hillary voters are gay"?
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« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2014, 09:19:06 PM »

Voters under 40.  White Women.  Asians + Hispanics.  Try to hold as much Black support as possible.  Gays and Lesbians.  Jewish voters.

She will probably do better than Obama among all these groups except Blacks and voters under 40.  Still more than enough to win.

Wouldn't Hillary do worse among Hispanics? This likely has nothing Obama, but rather that Hillary probably won't face an opponent that advocate "self-deportation".

Also, African American might not be such a problem. After all, they did turnout in an odd year for a some dude McAuliffe.

I just think the hispanic community loves Hillary for some reason.  I remember in 2008 in Nevada they broke for her over Obama even though all the union bosses were pushing for Obama. 

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Reaganfan
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« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2014, 02:45:47 AM »


Just trying to be cleverly cynical like many of the other posters here.
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2014, 04:04:55 AM »


Just trying to be cleverly cynical like many of the other posters here.

Why would gays be that excited about someone who was still listed as an opponent of gay marriage  as recently as March 2013? Remember, not all politicians choose to be either supporters or opponents of gay marriage, for example see Senators Landrieu and Pryor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_opponents_of_same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States&oldid=541887861
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #16 on: July 03, 2014, 09:14:28 AM »

Pretty much Obama 2012 except maybe slightly lower Black turnout (though not significant) and maybe slightly less support from moderate suburban voters depending on who the Republicans nominate.  Also better than Obama with Whites in ancestrally Democratic states (WV, AR, TN, etc.), again depending on who the GOP nominates.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2014, 06:26:47 PM »


Just trying to be cleverly cynical like many of the other posters here.

It's neither clever, nor cynical...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2014, 09:34:47 PM »


She'd have to, considering she's crushing your guys in the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2014, 03:09:11 PM »

People who wish Bill Clinton was still President.
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jfern
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« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2014, 06:12:58 PM »

Corpocrats, people who want a woman to be elected President regardless of her views, and people who never paid any attention to how the Clinton administration actually was on the issues.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: July 05, 2014, 07:28:39 PM »

A poll a year before things are getting serious..... Not to mention Hilary's numbers are slowly declining LOL

Who cares? The fact that you're celebrating her winning by "only" 9-10 points instead of the 10-15 she was previously winning by is pretty funny.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2014, 07:49:43 PM »

As of now, Hillary would win all the states Obama won.  She may add NC and AR, but it would be tough. 

The GOP doesn't have its act together.  They're about to foist some really horrible candidate on the general public (Christie, Jeb, Cruz, Mitt redux, Santorum, Perry "oops", Rand Paul).  They're all seriously flawed, and voters more or less know what they're getting in Hillary.  I don't believe that Hillary is as invincible as she seems, but I do believe that her opposition is quite unimpressive.
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Badger
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« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2014, 08:26:25 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2014, 08:28:46 PM by Badger »

Basically, fewer black voters (down to "merely" 90ish% like most white Democrats, but lighter turnout) and fewer youngs, but more white women. The differences from Obama beyond that are nominal, and even these differences from Obama's coalition should be minor, with the POSSIBLE exception of her making a noteworthy dent among white women.
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Hamster
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« Reply #24 on: July 08, 2014, 10:26:07 AM »

I think is pretty clear that Clinton is unstoppable and will likely win every demographic because she is the most qualified person to ever run for president and had no weaknesses whatsoever.

True. Deep down, everyone is ready for Hillary.
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