Voters under 40. White Women. Asians + Hispanics. Try to hold as much Black support as possible. Gays and Lesbians. Jewish voters.
She will probably do better than Obama among all these groups except Blacks and voters under 40. Still more than enough to win.
Wouldn't Hillary do worse among Hispanics? This likely has nothing Obama, but rather that Hillary probably won't face an opponent that advocate "self-deportation".
Also, African American might not be such a problem. After all, they did turnout in an odd year for a some dude McAuliffe.
The death of immigration reform (at least until after Obama leaves office) will be a huge millstone around the neck of the 2016 Republican nominee -- and that's before we get to whatever bigoted contortions the nominee will have to twist himself into to get through the GOP primary. Polls suggested that if immigration reform died, Latino voters would blame the GOP by a 3-1 margin. And Clinton has been courting the Latino community for a long time -- since the 1990s. Her performance in the 2008 primary suggests her brand is well-established there.
I think the recent Hobby Lobby ruling and utterly crass reaction from several right-wing men could have a similar galvanizing effect on women voters and Clinton is well-positioned to take advantage there as well.
