Kaine or Warner as VP?

[Free Bird]

Neither, really. They are both senators from what is building up to be THE swing state, and only had easy victories (slight effort on Kaine's part) because they are both very popular. They can't afford to possibly give up one of the seats, when there are no popular Dems to replace them, and when Cooch clearly has future plans of some sort after being screwed out of the governor's mansion.

[Skill and Chance]

Neither, really. They are both senators from what is building up to be THE swing state, and only had easy victories (slight effort on Kaine's part) because they are both very popular. They can't afford to possibly give up one of the seats, when there are no popular Dems to replace them, and when Cooch clearly has future plans of some sort after being screwed out of the governor's mansion.

Actually, replacing them wouldn't be a huge concern.  Dems hold all statewide offices in VA, so McAuliffe would just appoint Northam (LG) or Herring (AG).  That would also avert a potential Dem primary brawl between them for VA-GOV in 2017.  Either should beat Cuccinelli.  One of the more moderate R congressmen could beat them, though.

But I think Hillary's best bet is Hickenlooper, assuming he survives 2014- a Westerner who stuck his neck out for the base.

[Never]

Neither, really. They are both senators from what is building up to be THE swing state, and only had easy victories (slight effort on Kaine's part) because they are both very popular. They can't afford to possibly give up one of the seats, when there are no popular Dems to replace them, and when Cooch clearly has future plans of some sort after being screwed out of the governor's mansion.

Actually, replacing them wouldn't be a huge concern.  Dems hold all statewide offices in VA, so McAuliffe would just appoint Northam (LG) or Herring (AG).  That would also avert a potential Dem primary brawl between them for VA-GOV in 2017.  Either should beat Cuccinelli.  One of the more moderate R congressmen could beat them, though.

But I think Hillary's best bet is Hickenlooper, assuming he survives 2014- a Westerner who stuck his neck out for the base.

Cuccinelli for statewide office again? No, please, no. Anyhow, I agree that the Democrats here in Virginia definitely have a deep bench. Still, the Republican slate isn't too shabby, and considering the distinct purple hue of Virginia, a potential vacancy from Warner or Kaine leaving the Senate would probably be competitive.

[henster]

My guess is if either Kaine or Warner is picked then McAuliffe picks Herring because Northam can't be trusted after nearly switching to the Rs in 09. Comstock, Obenshain, or Gillespie probably runs in 2017 against Herring it probably would be a tossup and a very expensive race.

[Skill and Chance]

In a 2017 open seat or 2018 with Democratic president scenario, Comstock or (even better IMO) Rigell could easily take the seat.  I also agree that it would probably be Herring for Senate and Northam for Governor in an open seat situation.  Dealmaking across the aisle is more important and less harmful to the base in an executive position.  Also, 2017-21 is the redistricting term, so they need a plan to hold VA-GOV if the want a chance at the legislature before the 2030's.

[henster]

Is the law in VA the special election takes place in 2017 or 2018?

[Panhandle Progressive]

Is the law in VA the special election takes place in 2017 or 2018?

"In the case of the removal of the Governor from office or in the case of his disqualification, death, or resignation, the Lieutenant Governor shall become Governor."
http://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Governor

Hillary will most likely pick a Virginian to be her running mate. The ticket will be:

Clinton/Kaine
Clinton/McAuliffe
Clinton/Warner

[Never]

Is the law in VA the special election takes place in 2017 or 2018?

For Senate vacancies, it appears that Virginia is one of 37 states where the Governor can simply appoint a replacement until the next general election. Based on that understanding, the special election would likely take place on November 7, 2017 (when the statewide races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General take place).

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http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R40421_20090310.pdf
http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?000+cod+24.2-207

[Skill and Chance]

Is the law in VA the special election takes place in 2017 or 2018?

"In the case of the removal of the Governor from office or in the case of his disqualification, death, or resignation, the Lieutenant Governor shall become Governor."
http://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Governor

Hillary will most likely pick a Virginian to be her running mate. The ticket will be:

Clinton/Kaine
Clinton/McAuliffe
Clinton/Warner

McAuliffe is a close personal friend of the Clintons, so he is an obvious option, but he could hurt more than help her ticket.  He does have quite positive approvals presently, but I think a close vetting of his background as VP would turn up enough dirty laundry to tarnish him. 

[Suburbia]

Kaine would be okay if Warner gets problems being called a job killer.

[Mehmentum]

Locking down Virginia would be incredibly useful.  If Hillary does that, she doesn't even have to worry about Florida, Ohio, Colorado etc.  She just needs to get the base states + 2 of Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

Even with that though, I don't think Warner or Kaine are the right VP picks for her (and certainly not McAuliffe).  I think she should a younger rising star in the party.

[Mister Mets]

Neither, really. They are both senators from what is building up to be THE swing state, and only had easy victories (slight effort on Kaine's part) because they are both very popular. They can't afford to possibly give up one of the seats, when there are no popular Dems to replace them, and when Cooch clearly has future plans of some sort after being screwed out of the governor's mansion.

I was going to argue that Virginia's congressional delegation gives the state a decent Democratic bench, but it seems to be three elderly men in relatively safe districts. Even the guy likely to replace Frank Wolf is 64.

There's still the Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Tom Periello. Any of those guys would beat Cucinelli or an extreme Republican nominee. Keep in mind the party's process gave them Lieutenant Governor candidate EW Jackson.

A good veep is probably more important than keeping a Senate seat. It's not just that Kaine or Warner could help in a key state, but they would meet the main qualifications for Veep (appropriate resume for a President, can help Hillary govern.)

[henster]

If either Kaine or Warner is chosen I'm betting Herring will be the chosen to fill the seat because Northam can't be trusted after his attempted party switch in 2009. Northam would probably be clear to run for Governor while Periello's star has seemed to fade not sure if he's going to jump back into the spotlight..

[henster]

Clinton = wealthy, Warner = super-wealthy it would look bad to have two multimillionaires on a ticket. Warner is probably more conservative than Clinton herself I think he will run into issues because of his stances on Keystone/Social Security etc.

[DS0816]

Let's say that Hillary wins the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016.

And let's say that she doesn't pick a Viriginian. (Even though much of this thread is about that.)

I would say she would choose a "Blue Firewall"-state vice-presidential running mate. Seems that winning presidential tickets, where both candidates' home states get carried, are from Republican or Democratic base states. (That was definitely the cases with the George W. Bush/Dick Cheney and Barack Obama/Joe Biden tickets.)

If making sure the 2016 Democratic ticket doesn't include two candidates over the age of 60, and that [Hillary Clinton] would aim for someone considered pretty young, how about Connecticut U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy?

[Brittain33]

Clinton-Warner would plumb new depths in young people's voter turnout.

[President Johnson]

Both are solid choices with much political experience. But Kaine has the age advantage, because Hillary would be the second oldest president in history.

[Skill and Chance]

I agree with Henster. Herring would be the more likely choice. In the event the 2017 Gubernatorial Primary does come down to Northam and Herring, Herring has got to be considered the favorite there too.

I've also heard discussion about Justin Fairfax going for statewide office again. I'm guessing something in 2017.

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Barbara Comstock is likely going to win that race.

I think Kaine's VP star is rising if Warner wins by <10%.  Also, if there isn't a senate vacancy, they really need to convince one of Northam or Herring to run for reelection.  Remember, Warner flirted with VA-GOV in 2013, so a 2017 run by him wouldn't surprise me either, in which case he would obviously appoint Herring or Northam to his seat.  Since Perriello lives in the DC suburbs now, he would be an ideal candidate for VA-10 in 2016.

[IceSpear]

Warner's done after tonight, even though he's probably gonna survive.

#Kaine4VP

[Suburbia]

Sadly, yeah. If Warner wins, and if Hillary picks him the question will be: Can Warner deliver Virginia in the fall of 2016?

[Mister Mets]

Kaine does better if Warner loses.

It makes Kaine the obviously better Virginian Governor turned Senator. And it removes part of the rationale for opposing his selection: the difficulty finding a top-tier Democrat to run for the seat without Kaine.

If Warner ekes it out, Gillespie's an obvious Republican nominee against anyone selected as a replacement for Hillary's veep.

[henster]

Look's like I was right about Kaine being the better pick, Warner is a weak campaigner would not fit well with a Hillary ticket.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Remember when Mark Warner was the great Southern moderate hope who'll win presidential election in landslide?

[Cryptic]

After tonight, Kaine is the only answer. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

After tonight, Kaine is the only answer. 

Beside that Kaine, as early Obama supporter, would be a better balance for Hillary.