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Author Topic: Nader Effect Analysis  (Read 5796 times)
John of CA
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« on: December 15, 2003, 10:41:00 am »
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Does anyone know of objective or at least well-documented analyses of Nader's effect on the 2000 election?  I'm looking for a "with Nader" "without Nader" electoral map.  Huh  Thanks, -jp
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Wakie
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« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2003, 01:21:31 pm »
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You can guesstimate one based off this website.  You can generally guesstimate that somewhere between 1/4 to 1/2 of Nader voters would have voted Gore if Nader.

At the 1/4 ratio, Florida goes to Gore.  This alone is enough to give Gore the Presidency.

At the 1/2 ratio Gore also picks up New Hampshire.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2003, 09:51:00 pm »
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In 2000 exit polling asked:

If these were the only two presidential candidates, who would you vote for? (Bush got 49%, Gore 48%, and not voting 2%) Of those who picked Gore, 2% were Nader voters, of those who picked Bush, 1% were Nader voters, and about 1/3 of the not voting group were Nader voters.

So it looks like Gore would have gotten a net excess of about 20% of Nader votes, enough to clearly win FL (of course), but not NH or any other state.

However, if more votes from Nader would go to Gore than Bush, why did Bush get more votes in the exit poll than Gore? Because, strangely (amazingly?), if Nader was not running, 2% of the Gore voters said they would have voted for Bush!

See MSNBC for additional polling results:
http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polls.asp?office=P&state=N1
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Clay
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« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2003, 10:40:08 pm »
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Another thing to consider....

If you take Nader out of 2000 and give a majority of his votes to Gore, you have to take the other third party candidates out as well, or at least the ones that made a dent.  Pat Buchanan.  Even all of Buchanan's votes going to Bush still wouldn't be enough to derail Gore, assuming much of Nader's votes went to him, winning him Florida.

A recent comment made by Nader (who is likely to run again) sums it up: "Gore beat Gore."  In other words, Nader's run shouldn't have cost Gore the election.  It's not Nader's fault Gore failed to win his own home state of Tennessee.  If Gore had done this, he would be president today.

I believe Gore's loss of Tennessee was even more important than his loss of Florida.
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CHRISTOPHER MICHAE
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« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2003, 08:08:19 am »

Another thing to consider....

If you take Nader out of 2000 and give a majority of his votes to Gore, you have to take the other third party candidates out as well, or at least the ones that made a dent.  Pat Buchanan.  Even all of Buchanan's votes going to Bush still wouldn't be enough to derail Gore, assuming much of Nader's votes went to him, winning him Florida.

A recent comment made by Nader (who is likely to run again) sums it up: "Gore beat Gore."  In other words, Nader's run shouldn't have cost Gore the election.  It's not Nader's fault Gore failed to win his own home state of Tennessee.  If Gore had done this, he would be president today.

I believe Gore's loss of Tennessee was even more important than his loss of Florida.
I must take issue with your Ann Coulter Quote. It's just stupid is all. I vote Republican when I feel that my party doesn't offer me a decent candidate. I will not vote Dean. Therefore, am I not mature? Change your quote dude? It's offensive!
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Wakie
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2003, 10:16:27 am »
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Christopher, I agree with you regarding the Ann Coulter quote ... but then again, I have no respect for her whatsoever.

I think many of the conservative commentators make excellent points, but Coulter's statements are inane at best.

GWBFan's quote of her is yet another one of Coulter's silly statements.  It fails to recognize that some swing voters actually are truer to their principals than the major political parties.

Perfect examples would be the Republican Congress's willingness to abandon the "balanced budget amendment" plank of their contract with America, and certain Democratic politicians willingness to abandon staunch environmental standards when it affects them.

Swing voters are what keep the parties honest.  Imbeciles like Coulter (who follow blindly) are what create the Stalin's and Hitler's of history.
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Clay
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2003, 12:16:29 pm »
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To clear up a few things....

I won't be taking my quote down.  Just b/c something offends you doesn't mean you can't live with it.  Have you heard the comedy of James Gregory?  He has an part in his act about how everytime someone is offended by *anything* they want to pass a law so the offender can't offend them anymore.  It gets to a point where it's just plain stupid, and there's no other word for it than that.  My quote stays until I feel like putting up another quote (which will probably be soon, seeing as how I find new ones that strike me all the time, so don't cry your eyes out).

But.  Just b/c I have this quote does not mean I agree with it.  After all, I've voted Democrat before and wouldn't rule out voting Democrat again.  I've said on this forum once before that I could vote for someone like Zell Miller, or even Joe Lieberman.  So I do disagree with the quote.  Simply enough, I found it humorous, as many of Coulter's comments are.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2003, 02:20:41 pm »
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Remember Ann: We're laughing at you and not with you Wink
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« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2003, 02:08:59 am »
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Another thing to consider....

If you take Nader out of 2000 and give a majority of his votes to Gore, you have to take the other third party candidates out as well, or at least the ones that made a dent.  Pat Buchanan.  Even all of Buchanan's votes going to Bush still wouldn't be enough to derail Gore, assuming much of Nader's votes went to him, winning him Florida.

A recent comment made by Nader (who is likely to run again) sums it up: "Gore beat Gore."  In other words, Nader's run shouldn't have cost Gore the election.  It's not Nader's fault Gore failed to win his own home state of Tennessee.  If Gore had done this, he would be president today.

I believe Gore's loss of Tennessee was even more important than his loss of Florida.
I must take issue with your Ann Coulter Quote. It's just stupid is all. I vote Republican when I feel that my party doesn't offer me a decent candidate. I will not vote Dean. Therefore, am I not mature? Change your quote dude? It's offensive!

I don't think there's any problem being a "swing voter" if the definition of a swing voter is a moderate who although generally supporting one particular party, occassionally will vote for candidates of the other.

I think the "idiot voters" Ann Coulter is talking about are the ones that just have no political philosophy at all.  The "idiot voters" are the ones who vote based on who they like better rather than on policy.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2003, 10:15:19 am »
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Yes better to learn the issues, then vote Republican Smiley Smiley

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« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2003, 10:16:34 am »
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Another thing to consider....

If you take Nader out of 2000 and give a majority of his votes to Gore, you have to take the other third party candidates out as well, or at least the ones that made a dent.  Pat Buchanan.  Even all of Buchanan's votes going to Bush still wouldn't be enough to derail Gore, assuming much of Nader's votes went to him, winning him Florida.

A recent comment made by Nader (who is likely to run again) sums it up: "Gore beat Gore."  In other words, Nader's run shouldn't have cost Gore the election.  It's not Nader's fault Gore failed to win his own home state of Tennessee.  If Gore had done this, he would be president today.

I believe Gore's loss of Tennessee was even more important than his loss of Florida.
I must take issue with your Ann Coulter Quote. It's just stupid is all. I vote Republican when I feel that my party doesn't offer me a decent candidate. I will not vote Dean. Therefore, am I not mature? Change your quote dude? It's offensive!

I don't think there's any problem being a "swing voter" if the definition of a swing voter is a moderate who although generally supporting one particular party, occassionally will vote for candidates of the other.

I think the "idiot voters" Ann Coulter is talking about are the ones that just have no political philosophy at all.  The "idiot voters" are the ones who vote based on who they like better rather than on policy.

Yes, like some of the people who voted for Kennedy because of his looks.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2003, 02:02:13 pm »
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Gore didn't just beat Gore... he kicked the sh**t out of him and carved his intials on his forehead...
For a candidate with D-TN after his name to lose Tennessee, West Virgina and Arkansas really takes some doing...
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
jravnsbo
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« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2003, 03:47:31 pm »
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Well TN has trended to GOP since Goe was last elected to the Senate, so pre-92.  Not surprising it went against Gore, and if a Fav son couldn't win it, good luck with rest of Dem field.

Also Gore was EXTREME on the environment and Guns and that hurt him in all the 3 states you mentioned.

--the combustible engine was man's worst invention comes to mind.  GEEZ!
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2003, 04:50:19 pm »
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Gore didn't just beat Gore... he kicked the sh**t out of him and carved his intials on his forehead...
For a candidate with D-TN after his name to lose Tennessee, West Virgina and Arkansas really takes some doing...

oooooo... you're really letting the words fly aren't you realpolitik? You didn't even bleep out the word sh**t in your post. Is this what happens when you become a YaBB God? You can say what you want and not worry about the censors? lol Wink
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2003, 05:51:08 pm »
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must be the case.  Think he got a bit riled up .
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2003, 08:22:50 pm »
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Nader was on Inside Politics on CNN today.  Sounds like if he can raise the money he will run for President.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2003, 11:09:42 pm »
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I agree it looks like Nader will run, but if it is another close race, he'll get much less than in 2000, maybe about 1%.  However, if the polls have Bush ahead by >5% then the hard left may drift to Nader as a protest against whatever poor campaign gave Bush a lead.
I also think Kucinich will run as an independent, for the Natural Law Party sinc ehe is best friends with the Natural Law Party founder.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #17 on: December 18, 2003, 12:19:22 am »
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Not sure about Kucinich and Natural Law party as he needs Democrat label for House race.

Yes many on the left may float to Nader if Dean s way down and try to get 5% for Greens and matching funds.
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