In what states could a drop in black support for D candidate cause flip to R's?

[Non Swing Voter]

The only states I can think of that Obama won in 2012 are Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia.  But ultimately I don't think it will flip either Pennsylvania or Virginia... might flip Florida.  Michigan seems like too much of a stretch unless there is a huge drop in support.

[henster]

Ohio, Virginia, Florida. Democrats do well enough with white voters in Pennsylvania to win the state even with reduced black turnout. But in Ohio blacks made up 15% of voters even though their only 12% of the population meaning they turned at a very high rate for Obama. If the black vote drops back down to 11-13% in Ohio it could be fatal for Dems they would have to do better among white voters.

[Non Swing Voter]

Ohio, Virginia, Florida. Democrats do well enough with white voters in Pennsylvania to win the state even with reduced black turnout. But in Ohio blacks made up 15% of voters even though their only 12% of the population meaning they turned at a very high rate for Obama. If the black vote drops back down to 11-13% in Ohio it could be fatal for Dems they would have to do better among white voters.

Good call, I forgot about Ohio.

[Never]

Virginia probably has the highest African-American vote (20%) of any Obama 2012 swing state, so I suppose the state is an acceptable place to start. In 2012, President Obama won 93% of the AfrAm vote, which was actually more than his 92% showing in 2008.

Using the New York Times' nifty interactive presidential demographics tool (turning off immigration reform for the time being), I noticed that if we left every other group the same, it would take a drop in the national African-American vote from 95% Democratic to 83% in order for Virginia to flip Republican (since the African-American vote was two points more Republican than the nation, that would mean the AfrAm vote in the state would be a historically low 81% in this scenario. The state tied for second to flip with Ohio, while Florida was the first to flip at a national 88% of the African-American vote.

So, leaving everything else constant for the sake of this exercise, Florida would probably be the first (and only?) state to flip Republican if the Democrat only weakened with the African-American vote and maintained Obama's performance with all other demographic groups, while Virginia and Ohio would necessitate a historically low level of African-American support in order to deliver those states to the Republican column. OP, you mentioned Pennsylvania and Michigan in your inquiry. I had to drop the national African-American vote to 72% to flip the state, and 63-64% to flip Michigan (the next state to flip was Nevada, when African-American support for the Democrat dropped to an absurdly low 51%).  In Pennsylvania, African-Americans made up only 13% of the electorate in 2012, a small sum compared to Virginia. Furthermore, White voters in PA weren't as Republican as Whites in Virginia. That might shed some insight. In other words, you are right that Pennsylvania wouldn't flip due to a drop in the African-American vote for the Democratic candidate alone, and it is probably far-fetched to say that Ohio or Virginia could flip due to a decline in African-American support of a Democratic nominee, considering this drop would have to be to the lowest point since 1992 or 1960 (and even that 83% from 1992 has to be viewed with the consideration that there was an abnormally strong third-party candidate on the ballot). In short, Florida seems like the only state that could realistically flip due to a drop in African-American support for the Democrat.

[henster]

Virginia probably has the highest African-American vote (20%) of any Obama 2012 swing state, so I suppose the state is an acceptable place to start. In 2012, President Obama won 93% of the AfrAm vote, which was actually more than his 92% showing in 2008.

Using the New York Times' nifty interactive presidential demographics tool (turning off immigration reform for the time being), I noticed that if we left every other group the same, it would take a drop in the national African-American vote from 95% Democratic to 83% in order for Virginia to flip Republican (since the African-American vote was two points more Republican than the nation, that would mean the AfrAm vote in the state would be a historically low 81% in this scenario. The state tied for second to flip with Ohio, while Florida was the first to flip at a national 88% of the African-American vote.

So, leaving everything else constant for the sake of this exercise, Florida would probably be the first (and only?) state to flip Republican if the Democrat only weakened with the African-American vote and maintained Obama's performance with all other demographic groups, while Virginia and Ohio would necessitate a historically low level of African-American support in order to deliver those states to the Republican column. OP, you mentioned Pennsylvania and Michigan in your inquiry. I had to drop the national African-American vote to 72% to flip the state, and 63-64% to flip Michigan (the next state to flip was Nevada, when African-American support for the Democrat dropped to an absurdly low 51%).  In Pennsylvania, African-Americans made up only 13% of the electorate in 2012, a small sum compared to Virginia. Furthermore, White voters in PA weren't as Republican as Whites in Virginia. That might shed some insight. In other words, you are right that Pennsylvania wouldn't flip due to a drop in the African-American vote for the Democratic candidate alone, and it is probably far-fetched to say that Ohio or Virginia could flip due to a decline in African-American support of a Democratic nominee, considering this drop would have to be to the lowest point since 1992 or 1960 (and even that 83% from 1992 has to be viewed with the consideration that there was an abnormally strong third-party candidate on the ballot). In short, Florida seems like the only state that could realistically flip due to a drop in African-American support for the Democrat.

A dropout in turnout is far more fatal to Dems than a drop in support among blacks. Dems would probably do fine with winning in the 80s among blacks but if turnout is lower their influence is less. If blacks drop to around 16 or 18% in Virginia it could really hurt Hillary even if she's winning 90+ of blacks.

[Never]

Virginia probably has the highest African-American vote (20%) of any Obama 2012 swing state, so I suppose the state is an acceptable place to start. In 2012, President Obama won 93% of the AfrAm vote, which was actually more than his 92% showing in 2008.

Using the New York Times' nifty interactive presidential demographics tool (turning off immigration reform for the time being), I noticed that if we left every other group the same, it would take a drop in the national African-American vote from 95% Democratic to 83% in order for Virginia to flip Republican (since the African-American vote was two points more Republican than the nation, that would mean the AfrAm vote in the state would be a historically low 81% in this scenario. The state tied for second to flip with Ohio, while Florida was the first to flip at a national 88% of the African-American vote.

So, leaving everything else constant for the sake of this exercise, Florida would probably be the first (and only?) state to flip Republican if the Democrat only weakened with the African-American vote and maintained Obama's performance with all other demographic groups, while Virginia and Ohio would necessitate a historically low level of African-American support in order to deliver those states to the Republican column. OP, you mentioned Pennsylvania and Michigan in your inquiry. I had to drop the national African-American vote to 72% to flip the state, and 63-64% to flip Michigan (the next state to flip was Nevada, when African-American support for the Democrat dropped to an absurdly low 51%).  In Pennsylvania, African-Americans made up only 13% of the electorate in 2012, a small sum compared to Virginia. Furthermore, White voters in PA weren't as Republican as Whites in Virginia. That might shed some insight. In other words, you are right that Pennsylvania wouldn't flip due to a drop in the African-American vote for the Democratic candidate alone, and it is probably far-fetched to say that Ohio or Virginia could flip due to a decline in African-American support of a Democratic nominee, considering this drop would have to be to the lowest point since 1992 or 1960 (and even that 83% from 1992 has to be viewed with the consideration that there was an abnormally strong third-party candidate on the ballot). In short, Florida seems like the only state that could realistically flip due to a drop in African-American support for the Democrat.

A dropout in turnout is far more fatal to Dems than a drop in support among blacks. Dems would probably do fine with winning in the 80s among blacks but if turnout is lower their influence is less. If blacks drop to around 16 or 18% in Virginia it could really hurt Hillary even if she's winning 90+ of blacks.

I definitely agree. If African-American turnout declined to 18% here in Virginia, Hillary Clinton would probably lose the state by a point or two. Unfortunately for Republicans, it appears that high African-American turnout predated the Obama era in this state, considering that they made up 21% of the electorate in 2004. The exit poll information from CNN showed Kerry winning only 87% of the African-American vote here that year. The best solution for the GOP here would be to campaign in a manner that would increase our numbers with all demographic groups instead of counting on a decline in African-American turnout that probably will not materialize.

[BaconBacon96]

Black turnout will not drop enough to lose any state. People on this site seem to forget that blacks  heavily voted Democrat before Obama.

[IceSpear]

Black turnout will not drop enough to lose any state. People on this site seem to forget that blacks  heavily voted Democrat before Obama.

This. However, it could have an effect in states that are extremely tight.

By the way, you combo broke the string of Virginia avatars.

[illegaloperation]

I doubt that there will be a big drop in African American turnout, but the battlegrounds most affected will be (in descending order): North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Ohio

[Del Tachi]

The Democrats could do better among North Carolina Whites in 2016 only to see it slip-out-from-under-them due to decreased Black turnout. 

[Slander and/or Libel]

The Democrats could do better among North Carolina Whites in 2016 only to see it slip-out-from-under-them due to decreased Black turnout. 

But the traditional problem is decreased black (and other traditionally Democratic leaning constituencies) during midterm elections, not presidential elections. Do we have any reason right now to think there's a chance of a substantial decrease in black turnout in 2016 compared to 2012 or 2008?

[JRP1994]

In this order, from 2012 results:

Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Nevada

[Suburbia]

My view:
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Nevada

If O'Malley or Cuomo don't energize turnout with blacks like Clinton or Biden would, this would happen.

[bedstuy]

Another thing to consider, there are a lot more black female voters than black male voters.  Hillary could compensate for lost enthusiasm based on racial affinity by increased enthusiasm based on gender affinity.  People aren't just defined by one characteristic after all.

[illegaloperation]

The Democrats could do better among North Carolina Whites in 2016 only to see it slip-out-from-under-them due to decreased Black turnout. 

I doubt that the drop nationwide would be all that significant.

After all, in an odd year (2013), African American turn out for a some dude McAuliffe.

[Likely Voter]

One could just as easily ask in what states could a drop in white support for R candidate cause flip to D.

Is any possible drop in black D support greater than potential drop in white support for the Rs?

[Non Swing Voter]

One could just as easily ask in what states could a drop in white support for R candidate cause flip to D.

Is any possible drop in black D support greater than potential drop in white support for the Rs?

To answer your question, I would think the first state to flip would be North Carolina... some others: Arizona, Georgia.

[Mister Mets]

Black turnout will not drop enough to lose any state. People on this site seem to forget that blacks  heavily voted Democrat before Obama.

There are two things to measure here. How many people show up to vote, and who they support.

The latter could stay the same, but a decline in the former would help Republicans.