Tennessee State and Local Politics (Two GOP gov. debates upcoming)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A Republican shouldn't be that close in a big city like Nashville, but then again, there's not really any such thing as "the city of Nashville." It's a consolidated city-county, so the whole county gets to choose the city's mayor.

I'm waiting for some smart lawyer or judge to slap down consolidated city-counties like this, on the grounds that it imposes taxation without representation against the more urban areas.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

PPP: Barry 46, Fox 45

This is all going to come down to turnout.  Given that Fox has a strong advantage among voters who plan to vote on Election Day itself, this one could literally come down to the weather next Thursday- and it looks fine as of now.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Anyone want to make a final Fox-Barry prediction?

Mine:
Fox (de facto R): 51.5%
Barry (de facto D): 48.5%

[Oak Hills]

In addition to Nashville, Memphis also has a mayoral election this year, and the local daily there, the Commercial Appeal, has a new poll out suggesting a tight race.

Mayor A.C. Wharton: 30%
City Councilman Jim Strickland: 25%
City Councilman Harold Collins: 12%
Police union President Mike Williams: 12%
Others: 6%
Undecided: 15%

Sample: 500 LVs
MoE: +/- 4.5%
Pollster: Mason-Dixon Research

The election will be held on Thursday, October 8, and there is no runoff.

As with Nashville, I invite anyone who has been following this race more closely than I (read: following it at all) to share any knowledge they may have.

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone want to make a final Fox-Barry prediction?

Mine:
Fox (de facto R): 51.5%
Barry (de facto D): 48.5%

Unfortunately, I won't be able to follow this race next week, so this is my last prediction:

Barry: 50.8%
Fox: 49.2% 

(I want Fox to win, but the race is very difficult to predict and it will all come down to turnout.)

[The Arizonan]

The reason a Republican would be doing so well in the Nashville mayoral election is because it's a nonpartisan election.

Is there anything else interesting about the election?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What parties are the Memphis candidates?

[136or142]

What parties are the Memphis candidates?

Mayor Whartman is a Democrat. Don't know about the others.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The reason a Republican would be doing so well in the Nashville mayoral election is because it's a nonpartisan election.

Is there anything else interesting about the election?

That it is very hostile on both sides.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Right now, Barry is winning, and it really isn't even that close...

http://feeds.democratandchronicle.com/elections/nashville/

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Barry has been declared the winner by about 10 or 11 percentage points.

Why was polling so far off?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Barry has been declared the winner by about 10 or 11 percentage points.

Why was polling so far off?

Well the polls got Fox's number just about right, just nearly all the undecideds broke to Barry.

[Gass3268]

Excellent News!

[Oak Hills]

Megan Barry: 60,519 votes (55%)
David Fox: 49,694 (45%)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Very disappointing.  I had been doing some volunteer work for the Fox campaign the last few weeks and was at the watch party tonight.  A lot of stunned and disappointed faces.

[Gass3268]

Looking forward to seeing the a map for the runoff!

[MisSkeptic]

Looks like Megan Barry has defeated Fox, and thus becomes the first woman to be mayor of Nashville, TN. Awesome!

[windjammer]

I didn't follow at all. Why did people believe it was going to be competitive? Nashville isn't one of these democratic stronghold cities?

[MisSkeptic]

I didn't follow at all. Why did people believe it was going to be competitive? Nashville isn't one of these democratic stronghold cities?

I didn't really follow it either. The Friendly Atheist blog updated different post where Fox attacked Barry for being an atheist and a number of related subjects. Clearly Fox was trying to fight dirty.

http://ballotpedia.org/Nashville,_Tennessee_municipal_elections,_2015

[Maxwell]

It's kind of shocking to me a fairly right wing conservative got as close as he did.

[MT Treasurer]

Looking forward to seeing the a map for the runoff!

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2015/09/11/interactive-how-megan-barry-became-nashville-mayor/72047880/

I didn't follow at all. Why did people believe it was going to be competitive? Nashville isn't one of these democratic stronghold cities?

Lol, it is. Obama won Davidson County 58-40. The suburbs are obviously more Republican.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Plus, the polls showed them even. Everyone is always gloating about how the GOP does better than the pollsters predict, but this time it wasn't so.

[Gass3268]

Looking forward to seeing the a map for the runoff!

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2015/09/11/interactive-how-megan-barry-became-nashville-mayor/72047880/

Thanks!

[windjammer]

The time where blacks weren't voting is over, even in special election apparently.

[Oak Hills]

Several important stories in the last week, which I was unable to post because I was too busy:

HD-9: Rogersville realtor Cynthia Bundren-Jackson yesterday announced her intention to run as a Republican for the state House from District 9, comprising Hawkins and Hancock Counties, in a special election triggered by the recent resignation of state Rep., and chair of the Finance Subcomittee, Mike Harrison (R-Rogersville), to take over as executive director of the County Mayors' Association of Tennessee.  Speaker Pro Tempore Curtis Johnson (R-Clarksville) will take over the Subcommittee on an interim basis.  Map of the Ninth, from the General Assembly website.

Memphis: City Councilman Jim Strickland defeated incumbent Mayor A.C. Wharton by an unexpectedly large twenty-point margin yesterday.  Full results:
Jim Strickland: 41,829 votes (41.54%)
A.C. Wharton: 22,199 (22.05%)
Harold Collins: 18,496 (18.37%)
Mike Williams: 16,180 (16.07%)
Sharon A. Webb: 598 (0.01%)
M. Latroy Williams: 404 (<0.005%)
A. Fullilove, Jr.: 365 (<0.005%)
Robert Hodges: 235 (<0.005%)
D.P. Walker, Jr.: 168 (<0.005%)
Leo Awgowhat: 118 (<0.005%)
Write-ins: 91(<0.005%)

News industry: The Gannet Co., which already owns the Nashville Tennesseean, among other papers, has reached an agreement to purchase Journal Media Group, Inc., owner of both the Memphis Commercial Appeal and the Knoxville News-Sentinel along with other smaller papers, for $280 million, which will put all three of Tennessee's largest dailies under a single corporate umbrella.