Tennessee State and Local Politics (Two GOP gov. debates upcoming)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:06:07 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Tennessee State and Local Politics (Two GOP gov. debates upcoming)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6
Author Topic: Tennessee State and Local Politics (Two GOP gov. debates upcoming)  (Read 20531 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: August 06, 2015, 06:35:09 PM »
« edited: August 06, 2015, 07:05:28 PM by TNvolunteer »

My prediction (even though the race is literally unpredictable):

1. David Fox: 24%
2. Megan Barry: 24%


3. Bill Freeman: 22%
4. Howard Gentry: 10%
5. Charles Bone: 9%
6. Linda Rebrovick: 8%
7. Jeremy Kane: 3%

Probably too generous to Fox, but I hope the low turnout benefits him. We will see.

I also think Briley will win the vice-mayoral race (but it's nothing more than a guess), but I have no idea how close it will be.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: August 06, 2015, 07:19:28 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2015, 07:28:40 PM by TNvolunteer »

Wow, first results look good for Fox:

Megan Barry    12935   24%
David A. Fox    12305   23%


Bill Freeman    10509   20%
Howard Gentry    6661   12%
Charles Robert Bone    5790   11%
Linda Eskind Rebrovick    3080   6%
Jeremy Kane    2487   5%

Mostly early vote that's in.

Briley leads Garrett in the vice-mayoral race just as I had expected:

David Briley    25696   55%
Tim Garrett    21398   45%
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: August 06, 2015, 09:22:32 PM »

60% in!

Megan Barry    24%
David A. Fox    23%


Bill Freeman    21%
Howard Gentry 12%
Charles Robert Bone  11%
Linda Eskind Rebrovick  6%
Jeremy Kane    3748  5%

Freeman doing a little bit better, but I doubt it will be enough.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: August 06, 2015, 09:48:25 PM »

80% in and the vice-mayoral race is tightening a bit:

David Briley    43280   53%
Tim Garrett    37906   47%

But I think Briley has won. Barry and Fox will go to the runoff.
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,660


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: August 06, 2015, 10:17:46 PM »

100% in- Fox and Barry heading to the runoff- Freeman out.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: August 06, 2015, 10:18:49 PM »

I am so glad that Freeman is out and hope that Fox makes the runoff, but like I said before - it will be tough for him.
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,660


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: August 06, 2015, 10:22:29 PM »

I am so glad that Freeman is out and hope that Fox makes the runoff, but like I said before - it will be tough for him.

I will be voting for Fox, but my guess is that Barry wins the runoff.  I still much prefer her to Freeman (and my main disagreements with her are on social issues, which matter far less in a mayoral race).
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: August 06, 2015, 11:51:28 PM »

I hadn't follow this race closely, but runoff is between moderately conservative Republican (Fox) and moderately liberal Democrat (Barry), correct? If so - Barry is favored...
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,660


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: August 07, 2015, 11:25:05 AM »

I hadn't follow this race closely, but runoff is between moderately conservative Republican (Fox) and moderately liberal Democrat (Barry), correct? If so - Barry is favored...

To my knowledge, Barry is an Independent, but definitely left-of-center on social issues (which play less of a role in local politics, anyway).  She is someone who, like Karl Dean, will focus more on governing than political beliefs (and she isn't particularly fiscally liberal).  Fox, contrary to what his opponents say, won't govern as a hard-core Tea Partier.  He is actually fairly socially moderate or centrist, but he is very fiscally conservative and won't support massive spending projects.

Barry is the favorite, but a strong close by Fox could give him the election.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: August 07, 2015, 12:12:12 PM »

^ Thanks!
Logged
Oak Hills
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,223
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: August 09, 2015, 05:16:58 PM »

HD14:  Here is the News-Sentinel write-up of the Carson-vs.-Zachary debate.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: August 10, 2015, 04:03:21 AM »

HD14:  Here is the News-Sentinel write-up of the Carson-vs.-Zachary debate.

Well, as of late both parties became so ideologically "homogenous", that one need to discover subtle differences at least on some issues simply to distinguish one candidate from another... Frequently it's Tweedledee мы Tweedledum situation, with all candidates voicing "ME TOO!!!" on almost all issues..
Logged
Oak Hills
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,223
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: August 12, 2015, 06:07:08 PM »

HD14:  The primary is today.  Polls close at 8 PM.  Here is an article about the election from today's Knoxville News-Sentinel:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: August 12, 2015, 08:02:13 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2015, 08:06:44 PM by Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon »

Going back to the Nashville Mayor race - here's a map.  Runoff between Barry and Fox on Sept. 10.



Bear in mind that in this race, even the last placed candidate ran TV ads.

David Fox (red): Most GOP voters with some business-oriented conservadems
Megan Barry (blue): Urban progressives, "hipsters", etc.
Bill Freeman (green): Blue-collar Dems and a large portion of African-Americans.  He also targeted hispanics.
Howard Gentry (yellow): African-Americans

Linda Eskind Rebrovick: intelligent handsome map nerds (I voted for her, but apparently no one else did)  Rebrovick, a former Dell and IBM executive, campaigned on a "smarter city" using technology to alleviate our traffic and growth problems.  She got some traction among moderate GOP voters moderate women, but leaked votes to Fox in the end.

Its not clear who Charles Bone was targeting, but he did have a TV ad with a memorable jingle about Nashville neighborhoods.  Jeremy Kane came in last but has built some name ID for a future race.
Logged
Oak Hills
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,223
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: August 12, 2015, 09:16:41 PM »

HD14:  Zachary wins the primary, with 2,397 votes to Carson's 1,742.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: August 13, 2015, 01:15:51 AM »

HD14:  Zachary wins the primary, with 2,397 votes to Carson's 1,742.

So - far right is triumphant here? Usual thing for Republican primary in "reliable" districts: the more far-right you are - the more you get from the base. And if you must not care about GE - that's the shortest possible path to victory. The same for Democrats in "their" districts... The result - extremely polarized state legislatures (and Congress)
Logged
Türkisblau
H_Wallace
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,402
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: August 13, 2015, 09:17:52 AM »

HD14:  Zachary wins the primary, with 2,397 votes to Carson's 1,742.

So - far right is triumphant here? Usual thing for Republican primary in "reliable" districts: the more far-right you are - the more you get from the base. And if you must not care about GE - that's the shortest possible path to victory. The same for Democrats in "their" districts... The result - extremely polarized state legislatures (and Congress)

Smolty, you have the bizarre honor of being the Atlas user to have repeated the obvious the most times.
Logged
15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,660


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: August 13, 2015, 09:22:19 AM »

Going back to the Nashville Mayor race - here's a map.  Runoff between Barry and Fox on Sept. 10.



Bear in mind that in this race, even the last placed candidate ran TV ads.

David Fox (red): Most GOP voters with some business-oriented conservadems
Megan Barry (blue): Urban progressives, "hipsters", etc.
Bill Freeman (green): Blue-collar Dems and a large portion of African-Americans.  He also targeted hispanics.
Howard Gentry (yellow): African-Americans

Linda Eskind Rebrovick: intelligent handsome map nerds (I voted for her, but apparently no one else did)  Rebrovick, a former Dell and IBM executive, campaigned on a "smarter city" using technology to alleviate our traffic and growth problems.  She got some traction among moderate GOP voters moderate women, but leaked votes to Fox in the end.

Its not clear who Charles Bone was targeting, but he did have a TV ad with a memorable jingle about Nashville neighborhoods.  Jeremy Kane came in last but has built some name ID for a future race.

I think Bone was going after GOP voters as well, considering his campaign staff.  As for the runoff, if you add up all of the votes for Fox, Rebrovick, and Bone, you get around 40%.  It will come down to whether or not Freeman voters come home for Barry- if they do, Barry will win, but, if they don't, Fox has a good chance to come out on top.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: August 13, 2015, 09:51:53 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2015, 03:02:59 PM by smoltchanov »

HD14:  Zachary wins the primary, with 2,397 votes to Carson's 1,742.

So - far right is triumphant here? Usual thing for Republican primary in "reliable" districts: the more far-right you are - the more you get from the base. And if you must not care about GE - that's the shortest possible path to victory. The same for Democrats in "their" districts... The result - extremely polarized state legislatures (and Congress)

Smolty, you have the bizarre honor of being the Atlas user to have repeated the obvious the most times.

Thanks. That's exactly what i want. Ideally - until this obvious thing (and - general idiocy of such situation) will become generally accepted mantra. As Cato the Elder has said in the past "...it is my opinion that Carthage must be destroyed"))))) And he said this in EVERY speech)))
Logged
Oak Hills
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,223
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: August 15, 2015, 07:16:03 PM »

2018 Gov:  A couple of Dem state senators claim to be optimistic about the election, and suggested the mayors of Chattanooga, Nashville, and Clarksville as possible candidates.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,376
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: August 16, 2015, 12:12:48 AM »

2018 Gov:  A couple of Dem state senators claim to be optimistic about the election, and suggested the mayors of Chattanooga, Nashville, and Clarksville as possible candidates.

If (as likely) Republicans will run much more conservative candidate then Haslam - possibly (though not very likely)
Logged
Oak Hills
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,223
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: August 23, 2015, 02:13:58 PM »

2018 Gov:  Mayor Andy Berke (D-Chattanooga) denies any interest in seeking the office.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: August 31, 2015, 01:55:53 PM »

Not really about Tennessee, still...

Gov. Haslam spreads wealth among Senate candidates

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: September 03, 2015, 04:24:53 PM »

PPP: Barry 46, Fox 45
Logged
Oak Hills
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,223
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: September 03, 2015, 09:48:41 PM »

Nashville:  I heard this story on the radio today.  Apparently there's been an anti-Barry smear campaign accusing her of being anti-Christian.  Fox has disavowed any such accusations.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.