Tennessee State and Local Politics (Two GOP gov. debates upcoming)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Nashville has a mayoral election coming up on Thursday, August 6, and there is a poll out conducted by Democratic pollster Gerstein Bocaine Agne Strategies for the Tennessee Laborers PAC, showing these numbers:

Megan Barry: 20%
David Fox: 19%
Howard Gentry: 11%
Charles Robert Bone: 9%
Linda Eskind Rebrovick: 7%
Jeremy Kane: 3%
Undecided: 14%

Sample: 500 LVs
MoE: +/- 4.4%
Conducted: July 16-20

There is a runoff in September.

I haven't really been following this race.  Is there anyone from that area who could give a summary of what's been going on with that?

David Fox= Conservative Republican (I'm voting for him)
Megan Barry= Socially liberal moderate (Tennessean endorsed her)
Linda Rebrovick= From prominent Democratic family, but kind of a Republican herself
Bill Freeman= Liberal Democrat (why wasn't he included on this poll?)

Those are the only ones I know enough about to summarize.  I really hope Fox makes the runoff.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Those are the only ones I know enough about to summarize.  I really hope Fox makes the runoff.

It's going to be very, very tough for him.

If he doesn't and Freeman does, I will still take an interest in the runoff to make sure that Freeman doesn't win.  If Fox were the only Conservative-leaning candidate, I would like his chances to make the runoff in Nashville (which is only D+5)- but he has to worry about Rebrovick, Barry, and potentially others.

One race that I will want to watch closely is the race for the 5th when Cooper retires- I wonder if the GOP could find a country music star to make it a possible pickup.  But, with TN trending even further to the GOP, I bet they find a way to gerrymander an 8th Republican district out of Nashville in 2020.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is Fox actually a conservative Republican?  He sounds like a vaguely moderate pragmatist in his ads talking about infrastructure, debt, and not just serving downtown.  Is this his strategy to win?

Pretty much, he wants and has to stick out among the seven candidates running.
I am rooting for him and hope that Freeman won't make the runoff.

I'm for Fox.  The race is almost certain to go to a runoff, but it is just a question of which two of Fox, Freeman, and Barry make it, unless there is a late surger.  My preference of the three is Fox>Barry>Freeman.

What date is the runoff, again?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

So far low election day turnout due to heavy rain

Benefits Fox?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

100% in- Fox and Barry heading to the runoff- Freeman out.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I am so glad that Freeman is out and hope that Fox makes the runoff, but like I said before - it will be tough for him.

I will be voting for Fox, but my guess is that Barry wins the runoff.  I still much prefer her to Freeman (and my main disagreements with her are on social issues, which matter far less in a mayoral race).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I hadn't follow this race closely, but runoff is between moderately conservative Republican (Fox) and moderately liberal Democrat (Barry), correct? If so - Barry is favored...

To my knowledge, Barry is an Independent, but definitely left-of-center on social issues (which play less of a role in local politics, anyway).  She is someone who, like Karl Dean, will focus more on governing than political beliefs (and she isn't particularly fiscally liberal).  Fox, contrary to what his opponents say, won't govern as a hard-core Tea Partier.  He is actually fairly socially moderate or centrist, but he is very fiscally conservative and won't support massive spending projects.

Barry is the favorite, but a strong close by Fox could give him the election.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Going back to the Nashville Mayor race - here's a map.  Runoff between Barry and Fox on Sept. 10.



Bear in mind that in this race, even the last placed candidate ran TV ads.

David Fox (red): Most GOP voters with some business-oriented conservadems
Megan Barry (blue): Urban progressives, "hipsters", etc.
Bill Freeman (green): Blue-collar Dems and a large portion of African-Americans.  He also targeted hispanics.
Howard Gentry (yellow): African-Americans

Linda Eskind Rebrovick: intelligent handsome map nerds (I voted for her, but apparently no one else did)  Rebrovick, a former Dell and IBM executive, campaigned on a "smarter city" using technology to alleviate our traffic and growth problems.  She got some traction among moderate GOP voters moderate women, but leaked votes to Fox in the end.

Its not clear who Charles Bone was targeting, but he did have a TV ad with a memorable jingle about Nashville neighborhoods.  Jeremy Kane came in last but has built some name ID for a future race.

I think Bone was going after GOP voters as well, considering his campaign staff.  As for the runoff, if you add up all of the votes for Fox, Rebrovick, and Bone, you get around 40%.  It will come down to whether or not Freeman voters come home for Barry- if they do, Barry will win, but, if they don't, Fox has a good chance to come out on top.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

PPP: Barry 46, Fox 45

This is all going to come down to turnout.  Given that Fox has a strong advantage among voters who plan to vote on Election Day itself, this one could literally come down to the weather next Thursday- and it looks fine as of now.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Anyone want to make a final Fox-Barry prediction?

Mine:
Fox (de facto R): 51.5%
Barry (de facto D): 48.5%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The reason a Republican would be doing so well in the Nashville mayoral election is because it's a nonpartisan election.

Is there anything else interesting about the election?

That it is very hostile on both sides.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Very disappointing.  I had been doing some volunteer work for the Fox campaign the last few weeks and was at the watch party tonight.  A lot of stunned and disappointed faces.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Also, a really interesting primary, where it looks like a 20-something named Grant Starrett has a good chance to successfully primary Scott DesJarlais.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The Lt. Gov. and Speaker of the Senate (I'm honestly not sure how/why he is both) Ron Ramsey announced today that he will not run for re-election to the Senate this year.  Not sure if that means anything for being Lt. Governor.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A recount has been ordered by a federal judge (a liberal one was the only one willing to take the case) for the 2014 Amendment 1, which protected unborn babies.  It passed 53-47, but the Amendment received more votes in total than were cast in the governor's race due to people abstaining from voting for or against Halam to try to "double their vote" (a weird loophole in the counting process).  That tactic is the source of the controversy.  Just yesterday, a state judge ruled in favor of the Tennessee counting process.  Even with a recount, it seems likely that the original result will be upheld.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2016/04/22/federal-judge-orders-recount-2014-abortion-ballot-vote/83407612/

UPDATE: The Yes on 1 campaign is likely appealing to the 6th District Circuit Court.  It appears to stand for now, pending a recount.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I will be announcing my congressional endorsements for all nine seats (including the heated primaries in the 4th and the 8th) tomorrow.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

My endorsements:

TN-01: Phil Roe
TN-02: John Duncan
TN-03: Chuck Fleischmann
TN-04: Grant Starrett
TN-05: Stacy Ries Snyder
TN-06: Diane Black
TN-07: Marsha Blackburn
TN-08: Brian Kelsey
TN-09: Just write in me (even though I don't live in the district and am not 25, I have as much of a chance as any of those Republicans)