Who will win in Connecticut?

[Senator Cris]

Who will win in Connecticut?

Polls:

Quinnipiac - May 1-6, 2014 - Malloy 43% Foley 43% Others 1%
Quinnipiac - February 26 - March 2, 2014 - Malloy 42% Foley 42% Others 1%
Quinnipiac - June 12-17, 2013 - Malloy 40% Foley 43% Others 1%

2010 results: Malloy 49,5% Foley 48,95%

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Malloy

[cbannon5]

My prediction woud be that Foley will win in a very close race.  Connecticut has a history of electing moderate Republicans for governor while electing Democrats for just about everything else. Assuming that the national trends apply to COnnecticut, being a midterm election ought to help with Republican turnout vs. Democratic turonout.  Also, Dannel Malloy has lost  favorability with Independents in the state. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Malloy will win. Although CT votes for Rowland and Rell, aside from Simmons and Nancy Johnson, Chris Shays was the true maverick and should have ran.

[Never]

Possibly Foley, but at this point the Connecticut gubernatorial race is going to be one of the most difficult races this year to accurately predict.

[TX Conservative Dem]

It's gonna depend on the debates.

[NHLiberal]

First of all, I'd like to remind everyone that Foley is NOT the nominee; there is a much better, more moderate Republican candidate in John McKinney, the state's House Minority Leader.

I think the Republican will win regardless.

[The Other Castro]

Saying that Foley isn't the nominee is like saying Charlie Crist isn't the nominee in Florida. The convention only kept McKinney above 15% so that it'd be easier for Foley to beat Boughton in a 3 way race, but now Boughton and Mckinney's running mate are both out. McKinney doesn't have a chance. It would've been much better for Malloy if McKinney could win since he is much easier to beat than Foley, but Foley is making this almost a true toss up. I still think it's a tilt dem at the moment and Bridgeport will probably give Malloy another 4 years.

[NHLiberal]

Saying that Foley isn't the nominee is like saying Charlie Crist isn't the nominee in Florida. The convention only kept McKinney above 15% so that it'd be easier for Foley to beat Boughton in a 3 way race, but now Boughton and Mckinney's running mate are both out. McKinney doesn't have a chance. It would've been much better for Malloy if McKinney could win since he is much easier to beat than Foley, but Foley is making this almost a true toss up. I still think it's a tilt dem at the moment and Bridgeport will probably give Malloy another 4 years.

McKinney would be a stronger GE candidate than Foley. He perfectly fits the profile of moderate Republican CT Governor.

[Napoleon]

Foley has more money and name recognition though.

[Free Bird]

I'm compelled to say Foley due to approval ratings, but I need more polling

[RogueBeaver]

Malloy.

[Free Bird]

Saying that Foley isn't the nominee is like saying Charlie Crist isn't the nominee in Florida. The convention only kept McKinney above 15% so that it'd be easier for Foley to beat Boughton in a 3 way race, but now Boughton and Mckinney's running mate are both out. McKinney doesn't have a chance. It would've been much better for Malloy if McKinney could win since he is much easier to beat than Foley, but Foley is making this almost a true toss up. I still think it's a tilt dem at the moment and Bridgeport will probably give Malloy another 4 years.

Eh they only did that last time because voting stayed open late

[homelycooking]

Saying that Foley isn't the nominee is like saying Charlie Crist isn't the nominee in Florida. The convention only kept McKinney above 15% so that it'd be easier for Foley to beat Boughton in a 3 way race, but now Boughton and Mckinney's running mate are both out. McKinney doesn't have a chance. It would've been much better for Malloy if McKinney could win since he is much easier to beat than Foley, but Foley is making this almost a true toss up. I still think it's a tilt dem at the moment and Bridgeport will probably give Malloy another 4 years.

Eh they only did that last time because voting stayed open late

Malloy's officially certified margin of victory statewide in 2010 was 6,404. Bridgeport's margin of victory for Malloy was 13,874. When the closing of the polls was pushed back from 8 to 10 PM in Bridgeport, voting had already been open for 14 hours. Do you believe that 50% of Malloy's votes in that city were cast in the final two hours of voting?

[ElectionsGuy]

Malloy.

[NHLiberal]

I tend to think a lot more seats will flip in 2014 than most people here do. I think the Republicans will pick up CT, IL, and AR (with decent chances in HI and CO and non-negligible chances in MA), but I also think the Democrats will pick up MI, PA, ME, WI, KS, GA, SC, AND FL (with decent chances in AZ and OH and non-negligible chances in IA and NE).

I think this year's gubernatorial elections will look like 2002 with lots of seats flipping on both sides.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think that the chances of Malloy losing in CT are the same as Brownback losing in KS.  In other words, both states break for their respective parties.

[Free Bird]

Saying that Foley isn't the nominee is like saying Charlie Crist isn't the nominee in Florida. The convention only kept McKinney above 15% so that it'd be easier for Foley to beat Boughton in a 3 way race, but now Boughton and Mckinney's running mate are both out. McKinney doesn't have a chance. It would've been much better for Malloy if McKinney could win since he is much easier to beat than Foley, but Foley is making this almost a true toss up. I still think it's a tilt dem at the moment and Bridgeport will probably give Malloy another 4 years.

Eh they only did that last time because voting stayed open late

Malloy's officially certified margin of victory statewide in 2010 was 6,404. Bridgeport's margin of victory for Malloy was 13,874. When the closing of the polls was pushed back from 8 to 10 PM in Bridgeport, voting had already been open for 14 hours. Do you believe that 50% of Malloy's votes in that city were cast in the final two hours of voting?

Damn close enough

[Free Bird]

I tend to think a lot more seats will flip in 2014 than most people here do. I think the Republicans will pick up CT, IL, and AR (with decent chances in HI and CO and non-negligible chances in MA), but I also think the Democrats will pick up MI, PA, ME, WI, KS, GA, SC, AND FL (with decent chances in AZ and OH and non-negligible chances in IA and NE).

I think this year's gubernatorial elections will look like 2002 with lots of seats flipping on both sides.

Everything I highlighted I disagree with,  with SC, IA, and KS just being pipe dreams

[The Other Castro]

Saying that Foley isn't the nominee is like saying Charlie Crist isn't the nominee in Florida. The convention only kept McKinney above 15% so that it'd be easier for Foley to beat Boughton in a 3 way race, but now Boughton and Mckinney's running mate are both out. McKinney doesn't have a chance. It would've been much better for Malloy if McKinney could win since he is much easier to beat than Foley, but Foley is making this almost a true toss up. I still think it's a tilt dem at the moment and Bridgeport will probably give Malloy another 4 years.

Eh they only did that last time because voting stayed open late

I'm assuming that Bridgeport will order more than just 1/3 of the needed ballots this time. Plus, the number of people that gave up and went home earlier in the day probably outnumbered the people that showed up to vote in the extra 2 hours. If there had not been a problem in the first place, Malloy's margin might have been even larger.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Foley.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Foley. Partisan lean rarely saves a truly disliked governor the way it does a Senator or Congressman.

[TDAS04]

I think Malloy will win ultimately.

[illegaloperation]

Malloy will win.

Malloy may not be popular, but he isn't in Brownback territory.

[NHLiberal]

I tend to think a lot more seats will flip in 2014 than most people here do. I think the Republicans will pick up CT, IL, and AR (with decent chances in HI and CO and non-negligible chances in MA), but I also think the Democrats will pick up MI, PA, ME, WI, KS, GA, SC, AND FL (with decent chances in AZ and OH and non-negligible chances in IA and NE).

I think this year's gubernatorial elections will look like 2002 with lots of seats flipping on both sides.

Everything I highlighted I disagree with,  with SC, IA, and KS just being pipe dreams

You don't think we'll pick up Maine? And Kansas a pipe dream? LOL look at a poll. And yeah Iowa we probably won't win, but gun to my head I do think we take South Carolina.