Premilinary 2013 Birth Report Released

[BigSkyBob]

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr63/nvsr63_02.pdf

Compared to 2012, the number of absolute births was almost flat, with the decline of fertility almost offsetting the growth of population among child-bearing aged women.  What was striking is the absolute decline in the number of births to Asian/Pacific Islander women. Immigration ought to have driven an increase in the absolute number of births. Hispanic women saw almost no increase in births, which, again, must indicate another fall in fertility.

Again, the number of births continued to hover around four million a year.  With net immigration, age-peer groups should be in the order of five to six million. Unless the trends towards lower fertility, and lower net immigration, reverse themselves, or life expectancy dramatically increases, the population of the US rising to four-hundred million is still decades away, and five-hundred million is no longer a certainty.

[Tender Branson]

The US birth rate is now 1.25%, while the death rate is 0.82%

The natural increase is therefore 0.43%

The US population was 318.35 Mio. on July 1, 2014 - which is up by 2.22 Mio. from the 316.13 Mio. on July 1, 2013 - or up by 0.70%

Which means that slightly more than 61% of the US' population growth comes from births minus deaths, while ca. 39% comes from immigration.

The US will likely pass the 400 Mio. around 2051, if the current trend continues.

[Tender Branson]

While the US birth rate will likely continue to go down over the next decades to around 1% or 1.1%, the death rate will likely continue to be lower than that, but could rise to 0.9% because of the aging population.

It's also possible that the US keeps a slightly positive immigration balance in the future, with maybe African/Asian immigrants being the new Mexicans.

Which would mean the US would continue to grow by around 0.4-0.6% in the next decades.

Long-term projections are difficult, but there's a chance the US hits 500 Mio. people by 2100.