How many governorships will flip?

[NHLiberal]

How many governorships in 2014 will switch party control, whether that is Democrat to Republican, or Republican to Democrat?

I predict 2014 will look much like 2002 for governorships, with many seats from both parties switching control. Gun to my head, I'd say 11 flip: CT, AR, and IL as Republican pickups, and FL, PA, ME, MI, KS, SC, GA, and WI as Democratic pickups. That said, I also believe Republicans have a decent chance in HI and CO and non-negligible chances in MA, while Democrats have decent chances in AZ and OH and non-negligible chances in IA and NE.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

D pickups:
Florida
Maine
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

R pickups:
Arkansas

8 in all.

[NHLiberal]

D pickups:
Florida
Maine
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

R pickups:
Arkansas

8 in all.

For my purposes, I considered Rhode Island to currently be held by a Democrat.

[BaconBacon96]

D pickups:
Florida
Maine
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

R pickups:
Arkansas

5 in total.

[illegaloperation]

I am going to make a "conservative" prediction since I am a conservative.

Democratic pickup:
Pennsylvania
Maine
Florida
Kansas

Republican pickup:
Arkansas
Illinois

[IceSpear]

PA, ME, FL, AR.

[illegaloperation]

Why is everyone forgetting KS?

Brownback's number is in the toilet.

[IceSpear]

Why is everyone forgetting KS?

Brownback's number is in the toilet.

I have Kansas as a toss up, but I still think Brownback will narrowly win after he deluges the state in Koch-funded attack ads.

[illegaloperation]

Why is everyone forgetting KS?

Brownback's number is in the toilet.

I have Kansas as a toss up, but I still think Brownback will narrowly win after he deluges the state in Koch-funded attack ads.

KS probably have about the same chance of flipping as IL.

[tmthforu94]

Democrats pick up Pennsylvania and Maine
Republicans pick up Arkansas and Illinois

[morgieb]

We gain Maine and Pennsylvania, they gain Arkansas.

Suspect Quinn and Scott pull it out of the fire in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dem will pick up MI, PA and ME and RI


With chances in WI, FL and OH

Also AR goes GOP with chance in CO

3-6 seats

[Free Bird]

Dems: PA, MAYBE FL
Reps: AR, IL, CT

Worst case scenario is + 1 GOP

[Never]

Democrats pick up Pennsylvania and Maine
Republicans pick up Arkansas and Illinois

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know Rauner has been hiding from the media and only campaigning in suburban Cook. He doesnt even come to Chicago and speak to the urban areas not the business class. I know the GOP thinks that Quinn is good as gone. But that You ask america poll is one poll and we will have plenty of polls between now and then. When the real campaigning begin during debates.

[politicallefty]

Right now, I'll say 6-8 (potentially reaching 9-11). Democrats will probably be gaining Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, and Republicans will probably take Arkansas. I think Maine will probably flip as well, but the three-way race is problematic. The other competitive and toss-up seats are just too early to make a call, but I think a number of them will flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, all the seats like WI and FL and OH that voted for Obama twice have a potential to flip. But the senate is another matter, Pryor and Landrieu hopefully keep us at 50 and we go up from there.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rhode Island is essentially democratic already, so while the democrats will win there most likely, it's not really much of a pickup.

If the election was held today, I'd predict a democratic net gain of 1 seat, with the republicans picking up Arkansas and Illinois and the democrats picking up Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania. I also have CT and WI as toss-ups, but at this point I feel those incumbents will hang on just barely. Of course, this is subject to change and is definitely not a final prediction at this point.

Of course, fairly small shifts in opinion could also put CO, MA, AZ, GA, SC, MI, and/or OH at (real) risk of flipping, while a big wave on one side or the other could put NM, IA, NH, MN, RI, MD, and/or MAYBE NE and/or MAYBE KS at (real) risk of flipping.

(Nebraska and Kansas are states that will be much closer than republicans would like at the gubernatorial level, but in the end I don't think these states will actually stomach electing a democrat. Granted, Safe R (the rating displayed for both in my ratings documents and on my prediction maps account (percival)) probably isn't the right rating, but since I had them at safe before they unexpectedly tightened, my self-enforced rules say I have to keep them there.)

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Maine
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Illinois
Florida
Arkansas

[TX Conservative Dem]

My take is the following:
Republicans pick up Arkansas

Democrats pick up Maine

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My take is the following:
Republicans pick up Arkansas

Democrats pick up Maine
How can you not say Pa,   Corbett is good as gone?

[NHLiberal]

My take is the following:
Republicans pick up Arkansas

Democrats pick up Maine

Agreed, Corbett will CREAM Wolf with 66% of the vote having won three statewide elections

[ElectionsGuy]

Maine
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Illinois
Florida
Arkansas

[Mr. Reactionary]

Democrats pick up Pennsylvania and Maine
Republicans pick up Arkansas and Illinois

[LeBron]

I have the Republicans losing Pennsylvania, Maine, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Kansas. PA is just a matter now of whether or not Wolf can break Rendell's '06 margin, Cutler's loss of support + LePage becoming even more toxic = D+1, and the rest will be incredibly close, but I think we'll win those 4 in the end and lose the races in MI, IA, GA, SC and NE and NM.

For Democrats, I'm pretty confident we're going to end up losing Arkansas and one out of IL/CT/HI/RI. If I were a betting man, I'd say IL because like Walker, nothing is going well for Quinn, at all.

So 8 seat flips; 6 R's to D's and 2 D's to R's.