2000 Do-Over

[Potus]

Election 2000

Governor George Bush Announces Campaign
My friends and fellow Americans,
             Our nation today demands strong leadership. It will take leadership to stand up for the poorest among us, to mend our broken schools, and to guarantee prosperity for a generation to come. These are things that we have done in Texas. We have done it with bipartisan support and patriotic joy that we are doing the work of the people. I am proud of the work we've done here in Texas.

              I believe, though, that what our country is deserving of compassionate conservative solutions. Accountability and parental choice in education are not a Texan solution, they're an American solution. Building a stronger, lasting economy is in the interest of every citizen of this great country. Fighting poverty and lifting those currently trapped in it out are not only economic issues. They're moral issues. We cannot allow the American people to lurch from failed attempt at healthcare reform to failed attempt.

              We are charged, by virtue of our immense strength and generosity, to fight for these causes. It is the responsibility of the President to lead that fight. However, a President cannot lead if he is not of sound moral fiber. He cannot know leadership if he does not know forgiveness, integrity, and moral command.

              The fight for compassionate conservatism and a restored honor and integrity in the Presidency are all features that I plan on taking to the White House. Friends, I am announcing my campaign for President of the United States of America. Thank you.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

The Bush Campaign launched with great fanfare and a positive response from Republican primary voters. The theme of the speech compassionate conservatism and leadership won the hearts and minds of some in the media and promised to win large portions of the electorate in the fall.

Karl Rove, the political powerhouse administering Bush's campaign, had worked to create a large, behind-the-scenes network of donors and party leaders to back Bush from the beginning. Americans for Tax Reform, The Family Leader, US Senator Judd Gregg, and John Sunnunu all announced their endorsement of Governor Bush the day after his announcement. Massive checks came in to fund the campaign.

Some in the party didn't, however, feel the son of electorally challenged former President George H.W. Bush was a good standardbearer against Al Gore. They disapproved of the unapologetic conservatism of the Governor. Some looked for a different kind of candidate. A...maverick.

 SENATOR MCCAIN ANNOUNCES CHALLENGE TO GOVERNOR BUSH

Senator John McCain announced his campaign for President in a fiery condemnation of Washington. He claimed that lobbyists, the "politicos", and the media bred corruption that hurt the country. His campaign was based around liberal positions like reforming immigration and campaign finance and conservative ones like a powerful national defense.

McCain originally faced weak fundraising and lackluster public support. He vied for a strong second place with Steve Forbes, who ran to his right. His relatively low-budget campaign compensated for this by rushing from stop to stop in New Hampshire to hold town hall meetings and meet voters.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'll be following this! Hopefully we can get a better field than in 2000.

[Potus]

The Circus is in Town

Many candidates declared for the nomination, but none were able to break out. Steve Forbes came closest to entering the contest. He launched a vicious, nationwide negative campaign on "Washington John." As he struggled to gain ground among conservatives, he quickly moved into the role of simply antagonizing McCain.
 
Forbes' attacks did damage to McCain as they struck at the fundamental themes of his candidacy. He pointed out that McCain *WAS* Washington and hadn't done anything to change it. He hit hard at the basic notion that McCain would even try to change Washington.

Forbes gave him credit, however, on wanting to change two aspects of Washington. He wanted to flood the country with cheap immigrant labor and allow Washington bureaucrats to restrict free speech. His attacks were effective at leveling McCain's conservative support.

Dubya Flying High

Polls released in critical primary states as Bush mobilized a legion of volunteers and donors to barnstorm the country. His campaign had raised sufficient funds to operate in every early primary state and scrap for every vote.

Iowa

Bush- 48%

McCain- 13%

Forbes- 13%

Dole- 10%

New Hampshire

Bush- 37%
McCain- 25%
Forbes-10%
Dole- 10%

South Carolina

Bush- 50%
Forbes-15%
McCain- 12%
Dole-12%

Governor Bush introduced his first major policy initiative of the campaign. Flyers distributed at the launch event read the following:

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Bush barnstormed the early primary states to educate voters about his civil society agenda. The plan was pitched as a means of improving life for every American. It was a hit for evangelical voters and voters who actively engage in their communities. This policy push affirmed his position as the clear frontrunner in the race. Enthusiasm among evangelical voters in Iowa and South Carolina reached all time highs as they took to the streets to support Governor Bush.

At the outset of the barnstorming campaign, it was decided that Bush would stop and help at different charities and charitable events. The Governor's first major media moment occurred when he asked the press to wait outside while he went into a rape crisis center. Cameras, though were still trained on the Governor as he spoke with young women affected by this despicable act.

They told the Governor their story. He listened intently, consoled the grieving, and prayed with them. Even those in the cynical press corps were touched by the moment and the event received coverage for days. It highlighted the work the Governor would do as President to truly help those who needed it.

[Potus]

Breaking News and a Straw Poll

My friends and fellow Americans,

On September 4th of 1976, I was pulled over and arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol in Maine. I plead guilty to the charges, was fined, and had my driving privileges revoked.

I have not share this information publicly before because I did not want to set a bad example for your children, or for mine. I apologize deeply for this. I do not, under any circumstance, condone my past actions.

I drank too much. I was not happy and I let the bottle govern my life. But then I found my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ who has forgiven me. I ask that you, like Him, forgive me for my past sins. For we have all sinned, we have all done wrong, but what makes us human is that we can be forgiven. I ask that of you, today. I thank you for it.

Steve Forbes, looking to capitalize on any doubts left by Governor Bush's DUI announcement, had invested heavily in the Iowa Straw Poll. After spending a huge sum of money to attempt to win the event, it became a "make-or-break" moment for his campaign. His strategists had made the assumption that Bush's DUI was a negative no matter how it was handled. This would open up a host of new conservative voters that would allow Forbes to dominated the Straw Poll, and ultimately crawl his way to the nomination.

McCain struggled to take advantage of the DUI given the themes of his campaign. His attempted to use it to charge Bush for corruption and endangerment of others. This, however, would not stand. The Bush Campaign quickly swatted down any notion of corruption floated by the McCain campaign.

The Bush Campaign took advantage of the situation and used it to highlight their candidate's integrity. Governor Bush was someone who had been forgiven and was better man for his past mistakes. It was incorporated into every stump speech he'd give leading up to the straw poll.

The media had a muddy interpretation of the announcement. It was universally accepted that Bush was smart to bring it out on his own terms. Others were still concerned with whether this meant Bush was endangered in the path to the nomination. Polls had shown minimal movement in Iowa and nationally after the announcement.



Rove had decided to announce the DUI close to the straw poll to quickly move away from the story. Bush's campaign had done a wonderful job organizing for the event and spending wisely to combat Steve Forbes' advance on conservative voters. Any hope of an insurgent conservative challenger would rise or fall in Ames. This is how the Bush people wanted it. It would also lay to rest any doubts about the DUI's impact on his political chances.

Iowa Straw Poll Results
Bush- 43%
Forbes-21%
McCain-15%
Dole- 11%
Other- 10%

[Potus]

McCain Stands Alone

After Bush's large victory in Ames, the chances of defeating Bush were bleak. Candidates withdrew en masse. Forbes was the first to go after spending all of his campaigns time and money on the straw poll only to be bested by 22 points. All of Bush's former opponents threw their support to him and crisscrossed the state of New Hampshire rallying their former supporters to his cause of compassionate conservatism.

Bush's message was resonating throughout large swaths of the electorate. His lead in New Hampshire was significant, though not a majority quite yet. He led McCain 40-27. Forbes had kept all of his eggs in the Iowa basket and been devastated. Now, Bush watched as McCain loaded his eggs in the New Hampshire basket.

The Iowa Caucuses were expected to be a landslide Bush victory, above 30 points for Bush. No one, however was prepared for the 83-17 blowout that occurred. The devastatingly poor result for McCain scared away critical donors in the face of the New Hampshire primary.


My friends, we're gonna take this fight to New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and Nevada, and to the White House. We're going to change Washington, reform our government, and put the people first!

[Potus]

Washington John Falls

Arizona Senator John McCain concedes after losing the New Hampshire primary 61-39 to Governor George Bush of Texas
Bush's 22 point victory in New Hampshire guaranteed him the nomination. McCain's campaign had collapsed following the Iowa Caucus's 66 point Bush victory. There was no money and the media wrote his obituary, diminishing his supporters enthusiasm. His once-formidable ground game evaporated after Iowa and ended his chances in New Hampshire.

The Bush Campaign launched a targeted attack campaign in swing areas detailing campaign contributions McCain had taken from lobbyists, despite his anti-lobbyist rhetoric. This once again struck at McCain's theme and further diminished his chances.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I have a lingering feeling that McCain challenges Buchanan for the Reform nomination.

[Potus]

OOC: With the primaries reaching a quick and anticlimactic ending, it is pretty much unarguable that Bush is in a stronger position in the timeline than in the real world. He never lost New Hampshire, he won 83% in Iowa and was unopposed in South Carolina.

I'm about to write a couple policy briefs on what the Bush campaign is running on in the general election. What is his compassionate conservatism like in my timeline?

Already, if the campaign continued on autopilot and things happened similar to how they did in real life with Bush having a larger block of time between the end of the nomination fight and the convention, there would be no Florida recount and he'd probably win the popular vote.

[Potus]

I have a lingering feeling that McCain challenges Buchanan for the Reform nomination.

Not a bad plan. McCain would be hated in the Senate, though.

[Potus]

Bush for President: Healthcare

Governor Bush is campaigning on a healthcare reform proposal that focuses on making insurance affordable and reducing the cost of healthcare itself. We must distinguish in our policy process between what helps people pay for healthcare and what makes healthcare cheaper.

The first plank of the Bush plan is the repeal of the employer tax benefit for purchasing insurance and replacing it with an individual tax benefit to buy health insurance. The standard health credit will guarantee universal ability to buy insurance and create an incentive to avoid over-insurance.

Our plan also begins to block grant Medicaid to the states and withholds 10% of current funding. This spending reduction will help pay for the standard health credit and the rest of the Bush plan.

Workers will have the option to save an unlimited amount of tax-free money in a Health Savings Account. HSA's help people afford the smaller aspects of healthcare such as checkups and bloodwork. It also patches some holes in the insurance system.

The Governor's plan also endorses medical liability reform. By reducing medical liability, we will cut back on the amount of defensive medicine and frivolous spending that currently permeates the system. Liability reform will help dramatically reduce the cost of healthcare, which in turn lowers the cost of insurance.

One common Republican idea that the Governor likes is allowing the sale of insurance across state lines. By creating a national marketplace and removing artificial barriers, we can utilize competitive pressure to bring down the cost of insurance. Medical providers will adjust their prices to the amount of coverage insurers are willing to provide. This makes costs better for everyone.

[TX Conservative Dem]

That was a quick primary on the GOP side: Bush 43 clinched it early by winning both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Now he can save his resources and wait for the Dems to destroy each other.