RISK Domination XI: Finished!!

[Vosem]

Wow...Hagrid's not concentrated much of anywhere. G'luck, buddy.

[Vosem]

Wow...Hagrid's not concentrated much of anywhere. G'luck, buddy.

Snowstalker isn't in such great shape either

Yeah, at least Hagrid gets to go first. Snowstalker doesn't even have that luxury.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like there's a region in the middle of the western part of the map () where Snowstalker has a presence where all the other presences (Jas, Tyrion, Matt) seem likely to focus elsewhere, leaving that free for Snowstalker. Hagrid has to choose between confronting Matt in the Pacific, confronting Tyrion in the Southeast, and trying to consolidate the Plains -- none of which look any better than 50/50 odds of surviving the first few rounds.

Of course, if even one player makes an unorthodox choice on where to reinforce now (or splits up their reinforcements between multiple different regions), all our calculations now fall apart. It's still pretty early in the game.

[Vosem]

Looks like Hagrid decided that an early do or die battle with Matt was too RISKy for his taste.

Unless Hagrid has managed to convince Matt and Polnut to let him keep the Plains, he'll find it very difficult to keep up without holding a region. And considering how lucrative in reinforcements the Plains is, I can't imagine he's found them easy to convince.

[Vosem]

Wow, Hagrid really did get Matt and Polnut to respect his Plains thing. Hat off to you, sir.

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Unless Hagrid makes a tactical move or uses it to attack somewhere -- or gets lucky in the east -- it looks like North Dakota will be the most heavily defended state on the board

[Vosem]

So falls the last redoubt of Hagrid's Plains empire.

[Vosem]

...interested to see where you're going with this, Hagrid.

[Vosem]

RIP Tyrion

[Vosem]

RIP Hagrid. You played excellently throughout the game

Funny how last time it was North versus South, now it's East versus West

Considering how overwhelming East's advantage in cards is over the West at the outset (while South's advantage over North was initially quite small; 1-2 extra reinforcements every round; Hagrid just used them smartly so I was just unable to ever overcome it), I don't think West will be able to resist as long or as effectively as North did

[Vosem]

Funny how last time it was North versus South, now it's East versus West

Considering how overwhelming East's advantage in cards is over the West at the outset (while South's advantage over North was initially quite small; 1-2 extra reinforcements every round; Hagrid just used them smartly so I was just unable to ever overcome it), I don't think West will be able to resist as long or as effectively as North did

I was wrong...

[Vosem]

...Ma-att, oh Ma-att...

[Vosem]

Best realistic strategy for Matt:WA>ID>UT do or die, end even if he can attack from Utah.

I'd go for Wyoming instead of Utah, myself; doesn't border NV, slightly more inconvenient for Snow

[Vosem]

Best realistic strategy for Matt:WA>ID>UT do or die, end even if he can attack from Utah.

I'd go for Wyoming instead of Utah, myself; doesn't border NV, slightly more inconvenient for Snow

Taking Utah denies Snowstalker the bonus for controlling the Southwest, taking Wyoming denies Snowstalker nothing. 

Oh, I didn't notice that Utah was part of a different region. Oh, well.

[Vosem]

Do I have to bother with this turn?

All on Oregon, OR-WA do or die, end turn.

You have 1 in 8 * 10^25 odds of not winning this turn.

Joe is rolling the dice, though. I'd say Matt is favored.