RISK Domination XI: Finished!!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like Hagrid decided that an early do or die battle with Matt was too RISKy for his taste.  However, he's definitely handed Matt a massive advantage, if Matt plays it smart, and that's regardless of whether Matt decides to work with Hagrid for now or not.  I know how I'd play it if I were Matt, but I'll mention it only once Matt has finished his turn.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like Hagrid decided that an early do or die battle with Matt was too RISKy for his taste.  However, he's definitely handed Matt a massive advantage, if Matt plays it smart, and that's regardless of whether Matt decides to work with Hagrid for now or not.  I know how I'd play it if I were Matt, but I'll mention it only once Matt has finished his turn.

Here's what I would have done if I were Matt. It's similar to what he did:

1 reinforcement to Washington, 2 to Arizona.
Attack Washington to Oregon, do or die, leaving 4 in Washington if possible.
Attack California to Nevada, do or die.

Transfer 2 battalions from Nevada to Utah.

Only real difference would have been that my final map would have had a more even defense as I would have planned for having only one tactical move at the end of the turn:

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wow, Hagrid really did get Matt and Polnut to respect his Plains thing. Hat off to you, sir.

Matt may have been counting on someone else dealing with Hagrid, and Polnut has no reason to weaken Hagrid right now as the benefit accrues mainly to others.  If anyone was going to deprive Hagrid of the Plains, Jas was the most likely suspect all along.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think Matt has the best chance of beating Polnut here, because Hagrid has no reason to attack Matt and open up a new front. That leaves him in a decent position.

That's balanced by the fact that Hagrid goes just before Matt.  While Matt and Hagrid benefit from not attacking each other for now, the timing of when they play means that Matt will need to attack before betrayal becomes the optimal joint strategy because otherwise Hagrid would get the first blow.  So Matt has a tricky waiting game, needing to neither attack too soon nor too late.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Gotta say, that's actually very interesting.

Since Matt had no real hope of holding the Southwest, it made no real sense for him to fight to temporarily take it.

I am a bit surprised by Jas.  The de facto truce with Tyrion makes sense as there's an excellent chance Snowstalker will attack him to secure a card, if nothing else, and if not attacked by Snowstalker, Tyrion would be a fragile ally who could move against Snowstalker and/or Polnut while Jas looks towards the west.  The only surprise I have is I'd have thought that if he moved against the Matt/Hagrid pairing this turn, it would have been to put all 6 reinforcements in Iowa and attack Iowa->South Dakota, or if he wanted something RISKier, all in Oklahoma and attack Oklahoma->Kansas.  There was a reasonable chance Matt would go after Colorado next turn, but now it's pretty much inevitable that Matt will attack Jas next turn.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Jas were to attack you Hagrid, it wouldn't be for the purpose of gaining territory to hold, but of depriving you of your regional bonus.  Iowa->South Dakota would have been the surest way of doing it while Oklahoma->Kansas would likely have worked and kept Jas from being too strung out.

Altho to be fair I think his best choice for this turn would have been to split his reinforcements between Oklahoma and Missouri, attack Missouri->Illinois and then tactical move some armies from Arkansas into Louisiana.  He has little to gain from denying Tyrion the Southeast himself this turn, and Illinois and Mississippi were the only 1 battalion territories bordering him for a quick card pickup.  While Jas can't prevent a determined effort to deny him the bonus for holding the South, he could prevent a casual one in a way that wouldn't really adversely affect his ability to strike next turn.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Be interesting to see what happens.  Hagrid can take out Jas and get his cards, but in doing so, he'll put a target on his back and his territory is not at all defensible.  Taking just one state for the card (either Washington or Iowa if he wants a compact border) and beefing up his borders might be a better choice.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In my experience, the person who goes for the South region from the start is almost always one of the first to effectively lose

The South is small and indefensible.   The only decent region is New England as it's the only one you can easily defend.  Right not Polnut is winning, and everyone else is playing for second place.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In my experience, the person who goes for the South region from the start is almost always one of the first to effectively lose

I felt I had no real choice in the matter given the initial draw, and subsequent troop placements.
In the end, I didn't properly account for just how strongly intent Tyrion was for war with me. I still don't really understand it. Oh well.

You could have contested New England had you concentrated there from the start and placed most or even all of your forces in Vermont.  While you only had 1 New England state, you did have the advantage of going first in New England.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

...well, that makes things interesting. I was expecting this.

It's either that or let you win the game.

The only thing I might have done significantly differently from Hagrid is after taking New York, doing a tactical move back to New Jersey rather than continue on to Connecticut.  Tempting Snowstalker to go after New England would be more valuable to me than the risk of you getting 2 additional armies for holding onto NE if SS weren't tempted.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

All on NC.

Attack TN, do or die. End turn regardless of result.

This is all I've got in the tank, folks.

I wouldn't have attacked Tennessee myself. You have no realistic chance of holding the Southeast to get the bonus, so Virginia or Arkansas make more sense as they would be easier to take for the card, with Virginia likely the better choice.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Assuming Matt removes Polnut's bonus, this should come down to Matt and Hagrid now.

Is that a fair assumption? I feel like that's a pretty inconvenient attack for Matt.

It's not at all inconvenient.  It makes sense for him to hold off on attacking from Idaho until he can reinforce from Oregon, plus attacking Hagrid exposes Matt to a counterattack from North Dakota.  So I expect him to attack Polnut this upcoming turn, and a Arizona->New Mexico attack would gain him a card and avoid a counterattack from Kansas. From there New Mexico-> Texas would deprive Polnut of the South bonus.  However such a tactic would deprive Matt of any chance of gaining the Southwest bonus.  Unless he turns in cards, I see no realistic chance that Matt could take and hold Colorado and New Mexico if he also attacks Texas or Oklahoma.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You might as well prepare for NM -> CO -> KS -> MO, Joe.  Assuming you haven't already rolled it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Unless Hagrid has a card set he can turn in, he can't knock out Tyrion.  Four obvious options here.  Strike west to impede Matt.  Strike east to impede Snowstalker.  In either case, if he gets lucky he could keep them from gaining any regional bonuses. The third option is to be a plague on both so as not give either an advantage.  The fourth is to strike South or Southeast to get out of the way of the final two and have a better chance of getting 3rd place instead of Tyrion.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Unless Hagrid has a card set he can turn in, he can't knock out Tyrion.  Four obvious options here.  Strike west to impede Matt.  Strike east to impede Snowstalker.  In either case, if he gets lucky he could keep them from gaining any regional bonuses. The third option is to be a plague on both so as not give either an advantage.  The fourth is to strike South or Southeast to get out of the way of the final two and have a better chance of getting 3rd place instead of Tyrion.

Hagrid should have a set, I think. Polnut left him with a veritable bounty, iirc.

Then you might be able to avoid being 4th.  Attacking either Matt or Snowstalker would give him a chance of getting 2nd place whereas attacking you would only guarantee him 3rd.  Of course, for you to have a chance of doing better than 4th, then you need  Hagrid to attack Snowstalker.  Any other course of action and you are unlikely to survive this round.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Hmmmm... that's an odd attack, I mean... sure, you've taken away a regional bonus, but left yourself vulnerable as SS can place new armies as easily take your gains away.

It looks like Hagrid's come to the conclusion that he can't afford to concentrate on either SS or Matt and has picked the third of the four options I laid out. The only thing I would disagree with is that unless he was forced to play two sets, I'd have only played one set: Missouri, Delaware, and South Dakota.  He would have had a reasonable chance of getting and holding onto one or both of Louisiana and Texas and getting 2, 4, or even more additional armies if he could turn in a mixed set.  He'd have been taking a slight RISK of getting knocked out before he could use those armies, or of not having enough to keep Matt and SS from getting much in the way of bonus, but deferring 4 armies now in the reasonable expectation of more later would have been worth it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why is Matt deliberately giving the game away. I don't get it. :/

He hasn't played that well all game.  He's just had a combination of luck, plus the other players decided to go after others first, partly because they noticed his apparent lack of skill and in part because his goofs had the benefit of giving him defense in depth and thus making him harder to attack. But now that's it down to two players, there's no benefit to be gained from that.  But yeah, if he'd played better this last turn, Snowstalker would have six fewer reinforcements right now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

All hail the mighty North Dakota no mascots!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Guess we'll be here for another month...

Or 1 round, whichever happens first.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Joe, why be stubborn?  Even with the best possible result for Matt (assuming he has no card set to turn in), Snowstalker will have a minimum of 38 battalions to reinforce with next turn.

Best possible result for Matt: WA>OR>NV>ID do or die and takes all three states with no losses.

Best realistic strategy for Matt:WA>ID>UT do or die, end even if he can attack from Utah.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Best realistic strategy for Matt:WA>ID>UT do or die, end even if he can attack from Utah.

I'd go for Wyoming instead of Utah, myself; doesn't border NV, slightly more inconvenient for Snow

Taking Utah denies Snowstalker the bonus for controlling the Southwest, taking Wyoming denies Snowstalker nothing.  If you want to make things inconvenient for the counterattack, WA>ID, attack with 1 battalion ID>NV, then attack ID> MT or WY.  That way, if it succeeded it would be impossible to pile everything on one place and romp straight thru.