If control of the Senate comes down to a runoff...

[Keystone Phil]

I know we've had this discussion elsewhere plenty of times. Apologies if there has been a thread about it recently.

As of now, if LA decided the majority party, do you think Landrieu pulls it out once again or is this year the final straw?

By the way, I'm not asking what would happen if the election was today. I think it's far to say that if the conversation is almost entirely about the race deciding who controls the chamber (which it isn't right now), the tactics on both sides change.

[Never]

Cassidy would win; I don't think Landrieu could pull it off given this set of circumstances.

Louisiana is clearly a Republican state, and if a December runoff in Louisiana determined control of the Senate, I suspect that a majority of the state's voters would prefer to deliver control to the GOP.

[Miles]

Can we not...

[Keystone Phil]

Can we not...

The one vote for Landrieu has been counted.

[free my dawg]

Is this even a question?

[GaussLaw]

Cassidy.

Honestly, Landrieu is the most vulnerable D Senator whose name is not John Walsh.  I do not think that she will win in any circumstance barring Cassidy doing something stupid or the environment changing significantly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Landrieu can't get above 50% in any polls I've seen, even in the runoff. I don't see her winning again.

[NHLiberal]

Landrieu would probably lose in a runoff regardless, let alone if it was meant to decide Senate control

[IceSpear]

Cassidy, but it wouldn't be guaranteed like many seem to think.

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy.

[Knives]

How much money would flood the race in those few weeks?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How much money would flood the race in those few weeks?

Sadly the Koch brothers have some serious cash. They and their pals are planning to spend $500 million to buy a Republican Senate.

http://www.alternet.org/tea-party-and-right/300-koch-led-businessmen-pledge-500-million-turn-senate-over-republicans

[windjammer]

Cassidy I guess.


I don't think this case will happen though. Or Republicans will have their majority after the elections, or the Democrats will keep their majority after the elections.

[NHLiberal]

Cassidy I guess.


I don't think this case will happen though. Or Republicans will have their majority after the elections, or the Democrats will keep their majority after the elections.

[dmmidmi]

Landrieu can't get above 50% in any polls I've seen, even in the runoff. I don't see her winning again.

I'm not sure how much stock I'd put into this. In 2008, Landrieu hit 50% exactly twice before August:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/la/louisiana_senate-565.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana,_2008

And, she managed to win a runoff in a better-than-neutral year for the GOP.

She has a hill to climb, but she's not in the terrible shape most people are saying she's in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Landrieu can't get above 50% in any polls I've seen, even in the runoff. I don't see her winning again.

I'm not sure how much stock I'd put into this. In 2008, Landrieu hit 50% exactly twice before August:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/la/louisiana_senate-565.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana,_2008

And, she managed to win a runoff in a better-than-neutral year for the GOP.

She has a hill to climb, but she's not in the terrible shape most people are saying she's in.

This isn't 2008 though, I realize she was on the ballot with Obama and still won by 6 points. But she is going to be connected to Obama's 'agenda' whether anybody likes it or not. If she even loses 10% of the anti-Obama but Democratic voters she's done. The difference between now and 2008 is she is seen as helping Obama, she didn't have that weight on her shoulders before. She can very well win this thing, but she's going to have to work for it, outsmart Cassidy, or hope he makes a really bad gaffe.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Is there a backlash against the Landrieu family dynasty growing in LA ?

In Arkansas, I know folks are sick of the Pryor dynasty and looking to kick Mark out of the Senate (the same seat his father, David held for 18 years).

[free my dawg]

Is there a backlash against the Landrieu family dynasty growing in LA ?

In Arkansas, I know folks are sick of the Pryor dynasty and looking to kick Mark out of the Senate (the same seat his father, David held for 18 years).

No. It's just Louisiana.