What margin do you think defines a landslide?

[The Mikado]

An IRL friend of mine and I were arguing the other day over whether Obama's 2008 win (not the 2012 win) was a landslide.  I was of the opinion that it was due to him taking over two thirds of the electoral vote, my friend said that a candidate needs to win the popular vote by 10% to be considered a landslide winner.  Do you want to weigh in?

[ElectionsGuy]

10%, like your friend. I would consider a win of 5-10% a "blowout" though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The electoral college does not define whether or not an election was a landslide. You can win the electoral college with as little as 21.5% of the nationwide popular vote, winning by a single vote in a given state gets you as many electoral votes as winning by 200,000 votes in the same state, the electoral vote can be swayed a month after the popular election by faithless electors, and the percentage of the electoral vote won by a given major party candidate often does not closely match up with the percentage of the popular vote won by a given candidate. It is clear that the EC overrepresented Mr. Obama's support - had the EC been set up on a proportionate basis, with each state giving two electoral votes to its winner and then dividing up the rest according to the percentage of the statewide popular vote each candidate won (with no consideration given to who won each individual congressional district), Obama would have won the electoral vote only 282-255 (Libertarian Gary Johnson would have qualified for one electoral vote in CA). (It is possible to manipulate the electoral college to underestimate Mr. Obama's support - if every state were to decide its electoral vote the way Maine and Nebraska do (two votes for the statwide winner, and the rest given out based on who won each congressional district with no regard to overall statewide popular vote), Mitt Romney would have won the presidency 274-264 due to gerrymandering.)


The popular vote margin that justifies a landslide is probably around 12,14 percent or so. Essentially, enough so that the race doesn't look competitive at all to the future eye, and enough that the election would be called immediately by today's networks if we elected the president via a national popular vote system with national exit polling.

[sg0508]

Given the polarization today, a 10 pt margin in the popular vote is probably a landslide.  Even a 10 pt margin though will still likely yield electoral results similar to 2008, which were substantial, but probably not a "landslide". 

How the vote is spread out really dictates the electoral college.  Heck, in 1980, Reagan/Carter (with Anderson around 6-7%) were near neck/neck prior to the last debate when Reagan broke it up....to the tune of a 44 state landslide win.  He won the popular vote by <10 pts.

[Never]

I've think that winning at least 350 electoral votes is a good indicator of a landslide.