Florida going forward
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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Florida going forward
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Author Topic: Florida going forward  (Read 2872 times)
sg0508
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« on: July 09, 2014, 07:24:26 AM »

President Obama's victory in Florida during the 2012 may have been the most significant win of the entire cycle.  Romney didn't receive the 2-3% national "swing" he got in most states from McCain's performance.  The "Corridor" has swung more bluish mid-state when it used to be the pinnacle swing area during presidential races and most statewide races. 

That being said, counties like Palm Beach are weakening a little for the Democrats.  How do you see the state of FL going as we move forward? McCain should have been the ideal Republican for winning it back in '08, but he lost and Romney's loss there should scare the hell out of the GOP.  As FL is likely to have >30 EVs after the next census, if the GOP watches FL go, they are beyond screwed. 

The great thing about studying FL politically, is that it's dividable to several sub-regions within the state, each with a different voting pattern and overall demographic, and the state is very dynamic, changing by the minute. 

One major thing the GOP has over the Democrats is that the statewide GOP is far, far stronger and the cabinet is near-empty for the Democrats in-state.  See this year's gubernational race as another example.  I bet Charlie Crist loses. Rick Scott thus far, has run a very smart campaign, much more organized and the way that Jeb Bush expected his party to run races when he was in charge from '99-'07. 

That being said, at the presidential level, the Democrats have performed far better in FL.  Where does the state go?
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2014, 02:56:02 PM »

You also have to factor in how close it was in 2012, likely due to Obama's vicious demonization of Ryan's health ideas. You yourself also said that the Dem Hold on strong counties are weakening. I'll wait until 16. Assuming no Hillary , there will be no novelty candidate, a major reason for Obama's victory back then.
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Smash255
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2014, 11:32:54 PM »

What happens with the Cubans in Florida will be key.  Cubans were already drifting away from the GOP a bit as much like the rest of the country younger Cubans were more Democratic than their parents.  However, overall they still tilted strongly towards the GOP.  There was a HARD Democratic trend among Cubans in 2012 (Miami-Dade was one of the strongest Dem trending counties in the U.S).

 If the hard trend towards the Democrats among Cubans in 2012 was simply a result of the circumstances of one election, than the state will remain a 50/50 state for some time, although the slow trend of Cubans away from the GOP should be troublesome for them and could cause problems further down the road.  If that hard trend was a result of something a bit deeper, the GOP is completely f*****.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2014, 12:07:56 AM »

Florida would be a lean Democratic state already if the Florida Democratic Party isn't so pathetic.
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2014, 02:15:29 AM »

I think Dems should focus on improving among white voters in FL at least to Kerry levels of support and maintain their support among minorities. It would be a lot easier to win Florida if Dems were winning 40-43% of white voters..
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2014, 12:46:44 PM »

Florida is probably more important than all the other states combined.
It has certainly been trending towards the Democrats.
Republicans should be worried for without Florida they are almost
certainly doomed. It's population is only slightly smaller than NY and will
likely soon have the third largest population in the nation.

It is also a bellweather and almost always goes with the winner.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2014, 03:41:59 PM »

The I-4 corridor will continue to trend Democratic, but I suspect that the GOP will make up for that as GI/Silent olds are replaced with Boomer olds in places like Volusia and Palm Beach counties. 
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Orser67
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2014, 12:11:59 AM »

In addition to demographics (and I agree that the Cuban vote bears watching), rules regarding voting are also important. For example, if Crist wins in 2014, he could restore voting rights to a lot of felons, who would likely lean Democratic (man, this GOP attack ad writes itself).
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2014, 08:43:17 PM »

Florida will remain a swing state and hotly contested battleground for a very long time to come.


For most of recent history, it has voted ever so slightly more Republican compared to the national popular vote. But that gap is closing as it is trending Dem pretty hard. The gap could completely close or be surpassed for Democrats probably in 2020, but possibly as early as 2016. Thus, like Virginia and Colorado, it could begin to almost-perfectly match the national popular vote and be regarded as a purely purple state.
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