Judge invalidates Florida's congressional districts, appeal is likely
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  Judge invalidates Florida's congressional districts, appeal is likely
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Author Topic: Judge invalidates Florida's congressional districts, appeal is likely  (Read 3368 times)
henster
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« on: July 10, 2014, 06:02:16 PM »

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http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/07/judge-invalidates-floridas-congressional-districts-appeal-is-likely-.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2014, 06:06:01 PM »

FL-5 is a clear gerrymander, one of the worst in the country in fact, but whats wrong with FL-10?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2014, 06:10:56 PM »

FL-5 is drawn to effect FL-10 and you can't redraw FL-5 without redoing FL-10. FL-5 has to pull out of the Orlando area to conform to the standards of the redistricting amendment.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2014, 06:29:18 PM »

So FL-14 is fine, but FL-10 is too gerrymandered?  Seriously?
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Flake
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2014, 06:34:54 PM »

My district gets changed Tongue

I wonder if any other candidates can run in the reconstructed district...could Val Demings run again?
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Donerail
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2014, 08:36:01 PM »

So FL-14 is fine, but FL-10 is too gerrymandered?  Seriously?

I'm in FL-14, but knocking out FL-5 will set off a chain of redraws that would require redrawing the entire map. If I had to choose one to hit, it'd be that one.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2014, 09:12:29 PM »

Moving a few precincts and calling it fixed isn't going to fix the problem. FL-5 is under 50% Black VAP, so it's not VRA protected, which means the shape violates the redistricting amendment. It covers far too many counties and has no purpose other than political gerrymandering, and that is not allowed.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2014, 09:21:18 PM »

I'm confused...would this change the 2014 races? Or would it apply starting in 2016?
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Donerail
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2014, 09:30:13 PM »

I'm confused...would this change the 2014 races? Or would it apply starting in 2016?

It would change 2014 but it will near-certainly be appealed to the FL Supreme Court so it's stuck in limbo right now.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2014, 10:01:34 PM »

I'm confused...would this change the 2014 races? Or would it apply starting in 2016?

It would change 2014 but it will near-certainly be appealed to the FL Supreme Court so it's stuck in limbo right now.

How would that work though if everyone's already filed in the current districts and such?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2014, 10:02:46 PM »

It's too late for it to change this cycle, any changes would go into effect in 2016.
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Donerail
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2014, 10:27:41 PM »

I'm confused...would this change the 2014 races? Or would it apply starting in 2016?

It would change 2014 but it will near-certainly be appealed to the FL Supreme Court so it's stuck in limbo right now.

How would that work though if everyone's already filed in the current districts and such?

The FL Supreme Court will make it so it doesn't take effect until 2016 while they consider the appeal.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2014, 08:23:55 AM »

FL-5 is a clear gerrymander, one of the worst in the country in fact, but whats wrong with FL-10?

It's buried deep in the article:

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Brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2014, 08:25:46 AM »

Imagine if Ted Yoho gains the rest of Gainesville? FL-3 would be just like GA-10, with a liberal college town represented by a Tea Party fanatic.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2014, 09:21:00 AM »

I'll gladly take Alcee Hastings or Pat Murphy over Lois Frankel. I hope I get redistricted.
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2014, 09:28:21 AM »

RRH has the best write-up on this.

With a minimal change approach, CDs 7 and 10 likely become a few points more D but would still be more R than CD13.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2014, 09:28:30 AM »

Excellent news! I hope the SCOTUS upholds this.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #17 on: July 11, 2014, 09:33:33 AM »

I'll gladly take Alcee Hastings or Pat Murphy over Lois Frankel. I hope I get redistricted.

I know you really don't like Frankel and I could see why Murphy would be relatively tolerable to a Republican as far as Democratic Representatives go, but Alcee Hastings?  Seriously?  What did Frankel do to piss you off so much that you'd prefer a highly corrupt Congressman whose positions on most issues are probably the opposite of your own?
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Sol
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« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2014, 09:57:25 AM »

Excellent news! I hope the SCOTUS upholds this.

It's not SCOTUS- this is a matter of FL state law.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2014, 10:31:18 AM »

I'll gladly take Alcee Hastings or Pat Murphy over Lois Frankel. I hope I get redistricted.

I know you really don't like Frankel and I could see why Murphy would be relatively tolerable to a Republican as far as Democratic Representatives go, but Alcee Hastings?  Seriously?  What did Frankel do to piss you off so much that you'd prefer a highly corrupt Congressman whose positions on most issues are probably the opposite of your own?
She beat the candidate who I worked for Tongue. But she was a bad mayor and I could feel the effects of her "reign" three towns down here in Boynton.

Plus, I admire brazen arrogance-something I am incapable of as I have a conscience. Thats the reason why I also get a kick out of Charlie Rangel, despite how terrible both of them are. It reminds me of a time that ended before I was born, when local patronage systems existed and "Boss Hogg" like figures existed.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2014, 12:47:55 PM »

RRH has the best write-up on this.

With a minimal change approach, CDs 7 and 10 likely become a few points more D but would still be more R than CD13.

Both sides seem to be happy right now and think this will help them? Who's more likely to be right?
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #21 on: July 12, 2014, 06:54:43 AM »

Moving a few precincts and calling it fixed isn't going to fix the problem. FL-5 is under 50% Black VAP, so it's not VRA protected, which means the shape violates the redistricting amendment. It covers far too many counties and has no purpose other than political gerrymandering, and that is not allowed.

Not that the GOP doesn't love the current districts.  They do, very much.

But the GOP didn't create these monstrosity districts alone.  They created them for the 1992 election, in conjunction with black Democrats, in a state where NO blacks were elected to Congress.

Back then, there was a Voting Rights Act mandate that Southern legislatures draw districts with a minimum of 65% black voters to ensure election of more black legislators at both the state and Federal levels.  It's how we got Corinne Brown's district that follows the banks of rivers to take in predominantly black communities inland, south of Jacksonville.  It's how Alcee Hastings got elected in a district that stretched from Ft. Lauderdale to Ft. Pierce, connected by huge swaths of lightly populated farmland.  Without these gerrymanders, North Florida would likely not elect a black Democrat, and redrawing the lines may well elect a Republican, as North Florida white voters in areas that Corinne Brown would have to run in are no longer nominal Democrats and rather inelastic in their voting habits now.  I suspect that when this all shakes out, the cure for Democrats will be worse than the disease.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #22 on: July 12, 2014, 07:28:44 AM »

So FL-14 is fine, but FL-10 is too gerrymandered?  Seriously?
There are no arguments (outside incumbent protection, including in primaries) for the shape of FL-10. There are for FL-14 and FL-5. Not great ones necessarily, but they're there.
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jfern
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« Reply #23 on: July 12, 2014, 06:31:57 PM »

Excellent news! I hope the SCOTUS upholds this.

SCOTUS has established precedent of ruling 5-4 for Republicans in Florida elections.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2014, 02:33:52 PM »

There are for FL-14 and FL-5. Not great ones necessarily, but they're there.

What is the argument for FL-14? I can't see how it's anything other than a blatant attempt by Republicans to pack as many Democrats in one district in the Tampa Bay Area as possible. There's no reason why, in any reasonably fair map, any part of Tampa or St. Petersburg should be in the same district. I cannot see the reason as to why the Tampa-based FL-14 should cut into the most Democratic parts of St. Petersburg. There is no reason why there shouldn't be a separate Tampa district contained entirely within Hillsborough County and a separate St. Petersburg district contained entirely within Pinellas County, both of which containing the entirety of their respective cities. The only reason why FL-14 isn't confined to Hillsborough County is to make FL-13 as Republican as possible. Republicans would most likely lose FL-13 if it contained all of St. Petersburg. They knew that and that's why they drew the area as it is.
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