Rasmussen - Colorado - Bush +5

[The Vorlon]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Colorado_April.htm

+/- 4.5% 19/20

Give or take a point, pretty much what is expected.

one more data point on the board

[zachman]

I wouldn't be too optimistic about Colorado based on this result if I were Kerry. Bush is close to 50% jere. Trget the 47% states.

[The Vorlon]

I wouldn't be too optimistic about Colorado based on this result if I were Kerry. Bush is close to 50% there. Traget the 47% states.

The sample size is only 500, so from a purely statistical point of view there is (about) a 73% chance Bush is indeed ahead (assuming a "perfect" poll with no sources of error other than random sampling error)

Rasmussen is a pretty decent pollster, but a sample size of 500 is, well, a sample size of 500.

I wouldn't write this state off based on one poll...

Wait for another data point or two...

[© tweed]

Bush will eventually pull through in CO, but this shows that it will be in play in '08.

[The Vorlon]

Bush will eventually pull through in CO, but this shows that it will be in play in '08.

The increase in Hispanics, plus the greater concentration in urban areas is taking Colorado about 3% per 4 year cycle towards the Democrats.

A run this year at colorado would not be "crazy" but yes, I agree, in 2008 the state will be close.

Bush also does "ok" among hispanics at about 42% which is quite good for a republican.

[Gustaf]

Bush will eventually pull through in CO, but this shows that it will be in play in '08.

The increase in Hispanics, plus the greater concentration in urban areas is taking Colorado about 3% per 4 year cycle towards the Democrats.

A run this year at colorado would not be "crazy" but yes, I agree, in 2008 the state will be close.

Bush also does "ok" among hispanics at about 42% which is quite good for a republican.

Vorlon,

Do you have any idea whether influx of Hispanics counter-weight Bush increased support among them? Any stats, etc?

[The Vorlon]

Bush will eventually pull through in CO, but this shows that it will be in play in '08.

Yes, there are very detailed stats actually... how detailed would you like...?

You have to remember, bish does well among Hispanics, for a Republican, he still loses among Hispanics, just not so badly.

Bush gets low 40s % from hispanics, which compares to the 10% (on a really good day) that Republicans get from African Americans for example.

The influx of Hispanics still hurts Bush, just not enough to make a difference... yet....

The increase in Hispanics, plus the greater concentration in urban areas is taking Colorado about 3% per 4 year cycle towards the Democrats.

A run this year at colorado would not be "crazy" but yes, I agree, in 2008 the state will be close.

Bush also does "ok" among hispanics at about 42% which is quite good for a republican.

Vorlon,

Do you have any idea whether influx of Hispanics counter-weight Bush increased support among them? Any stats, etc?

I have mountains of stats... which ones would you like...?

Remember, Bush still loses among hispanics, he just loses marginally so they are not, yet, a factor.

More hispanics is good for the Dems, but there are not eniugh YET to make a difference.

In 2008 or so the hispanic factor starts to cut in in the southwest, and in 2012 generally across the south.

[© tweed]

What I care about in CO is the senate race...go Salazar!

[Gustaf]

Bush will eventually pull through in CO, but this shows that it will be in play in '08.

Yes, there are very detailed stats actually... how detailed would you like...?

You have to remember, bish does well among Hispanics, for a Republican, he still loses among Hispanics, just not so badly.

Bush gets low 40s % from hispanics, which compares to the 10% (on a really good day) that Republicans get from African Americans for example.

The influx of Hispanics still hurts Bush, just not enough to make a difference... yet....

The increase in Hispanics, plus the greater concentration in urban areas is taking Colorado about 3% per 4 year cycle towards the Democrats.

A run this year at colorado would not be "crazy" but yes, I agree, in 2008 the state will be close.

Bush also does "ok" among hispanics at about 42% which is quite good for a republican.

Vorlon,

Do you have any idea whether influx of Hispanics counter-weight Bush increased support among them? Any stats, etc?

I have mountains of stats... which ones would you like...?

Remember, Bush still loses among hispanics, he just loses marginally so they are not, yet, a factor.

More hispanics is good for the Dems, but there are not eniugh YET to make a difference.

In 2008 or so the hispanic factor starts to cut in in the southwest, and in 2012 generally across the south.

Yeah, OK. 2 points:

1. I was thinking that a lot of people are saying that Bush has gained support among Hispanics since 2000, and whether this is off-set by the overall increase in Hispanic voters, granted that he is still behind among them, or not.

2. I thought there were rather a lot of Hispanics in some South-Western states, such as New Mexico, already?

[The Vorlon]

There ARE a lot of hispanics in the Southwest, just under 6 million voted in 2000.

There is some evidence that Bush has gotten to just about parity in the Hispanic population, so there is little NET effect currently.

Hispanic voter turnout is very low.  

Only 27.5% of citizen hispanics actually voted in 2000

In addition, there are about 5.6 million non-citizen Hispanics in the US.

The issue of the naturalization of Hispanics is consequently an issue of some political signifigance.

[California Dreamer]

All the Rasmussen state polls show that Bush and Kerry hold the same states as 2000....except for two minor states: Ohio  and Florida (click state names for details)

The Florida results are recent, and although the Ohio one is 4 weeks old, it should be noted that on the same date that Rasmussen showed Kerry ahead 4 points in Ohio, it showed Bush ahead Nationally by 4 points.

so...with Ohio and Florida in the Kerry column, I am sure they can weather losing Colorado again