APRIL 15 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush "Won" Wednesday
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  APRIL 15 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush "Won" Wednesday
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #25 on: April 12, 2004, 01:33:08 PM »

The Vorlon,

Who are you voting fo in this election?  Just wondering.

Libertarian.. Cheesy

The Ayn Rand stamp wasn't a big enough "hint" ...Cheesy

well...good luck with the libertarians.
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angus
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« Reply #26 on: April 12, 2004, 01:54:19 PM »

Vorlon, who is the candidate?  do we know yet?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #27 on: April 12, 2004, 02:17:33 PM »

Vorlon, who is the candidate?  do we know yet?

Nope - three people have declares so far.

We hope to top 1% this year!
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2004, 01:17:56 PM »

new map
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #29 on: April 14, 2004, 12:20:11 PM »

Bush won Tuesday night by a meaningless 1.0%
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Ben.
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« Reply #30 on: April 14, 2004, 12:29:48 PM »


Lets see it... Smiley

Come on man... its one of the few rays of light in my otherwise dull life... actually that isn’t too far off the truth... ahhhhh..... I hadn’t been to a gig since Christmas and then yesterday I helped force a band supporting the Yeah Yeah Yeahs off stage... man that’s living!... and then I was able to get crushed like the old days listening to the Yeah Yeah Yeahs... listen to them [hypnotic swirling pupils] the indie music is darn enjoyable.... sorry going way way off topic...

but seriously please post this map... as I do find your predictions very interesting... thanks… sorry about the rambling…  
 
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2004, 12:33:34 PM »


Lets see it... Smiley

Come on man... its one of the few rays of light in my otherwise dull life... actually that isn’t too far off the truth... ahhhhh..... I hadn’t been to a gig since Christmas and then yesterday I helped force a band supporting the Yeah Yeah Yeahs off stage... man that’s living!... and then I was able to get crushed like the old days listening to the Yeah Yeah Yeahs... listen to them [hypnotic swirling pupils] the indie music is darn enjoyable.... sorry going way way off topic...

but seriously please post this map... as I do find your predictions very interesting... thanks… sorry about the rambling…  
 

Check back this evening

I have about 30 new state polls to go though, about half of them I actually trust... Cheesy
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Ben.
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« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2004, 12:42:04 PM »


Lets see it... Smiley

Come on man... its one of the few rays of light in my otherwise dull life... actually that isn’t too far off the truth... ahhhhh..... I hadn’t been to a gig since Christmas and then yesterday I helped force a band supporting the Yeah Yeah Yeahs off stage... man that’s living!... and then I was able to get crushed like the old days listening to the Yeah Yeah Yeahs... listen to them [hypnotic swirling pupils] the indie music is darn enjoyable.... sorry going way way off topic...

but seriously please post this map... as I do find your predictions very interesting... thanks… sorry about the rambling…  
 

Check back this evening

I have about 30 new state polls to go though, about half of them I actually trust... Cheesy

Thanks... I look forward to it...
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2004, 05:28:05 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2004, 03:30:28 PM by The Vorlon »

New map - not a lot changed from the old map...


Washington (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.58%

Some wise Republicans I know have told me this state is truly in play and that it was a lot closer than the 2000 results would suggest because Maria Cantwell who won Slade Gordon's old Senate seat in 2000 "pumped up" the Democrat numbers here by spending something like $8 million of her own money...

I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry

Michigan (17 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.13%

In addition to generalized job loses in manufacturing, Michigan has been getting double dipped because many Big 3 auto jobs are moving sount as Ford plants shut down in Michigan and Honda plants open up in the South.

Like Washington, I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry

Pennsylvania  (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 4.17%

The honest answer on this state is I just don't know.

Looking at it purely from a data point of view, (Voter registration, migration trends, polling, etc) Bush is up maybe 2 points, but you have to factor off of this that the GOOP numbers are a bit juiced from the semi-heated Spector/Toomey senate race.

If the election was Tommorrow I'd check the weather forcast.  If the forcast called for rain I'd give it to Bush, if Iit called for a nice day I'd give it to Kerry.

Minnesota (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +2.40%

GOP is very energized in this state.  The "Get out the vote" effort from the GOP has gone from braindead to actually pretty decent in the last 6 years.  I still think if it gets "really" close alot of Nader votes will "come home" and keep this one for Kerry, but it might be razor close...
   
Oregon   (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.44%   

NOBODY (at least not from this planet) really seems to understand this state politically.  Portland + Eugene are as democratic as it gets, the rest of the state is Deep Blue Bush. It's a battle of turnout.  Are the Tree Huggers more organized than the guys with the Chainsaws, or the other way around?

A university poll had Bush up 2 points, which is to say we have no reliable information.

As far as I know, neither party has properly polled this state yet.

http://osrl.uoregon.edu/press/report/2004PresElection.pdf

Haven't seen any polls from anybody I trust.  I'll leave it for Kerry for now.  That's not a "hard" call, just don't have enough evidence either way...

Iowa (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.31%

For reasons that are not totally clear to me, Iowa is trending to Kerry at this point - Polls are showing Kerry at high single digits for a lead.  No reason to flip this one.
   
Wisconsin (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.22%

Wisconsin may bounce back fairly fast to Bush if the new jobs trend stays good.  Only one poll from an "adaquate" firm that I saw had Bush +3, which I have nothing to disagree with,  I broke out the poll and any flaws I found tended to hurt bush rather than help him.  So Bush by a bit... for now anyway...
   
New Mexico (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.06%

Seen three polls, one with Kerry +1, one with a tie, and one with Bush +4.  I haven't got a clue on this state.  Toss a coin, leave it for carry, flip to Bush, take your pick ...Smiley
   
Florida (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 0.01%

Actually, I have this state pretty solid for Bush.  Florida's economy is actually  in darn good shape.  Brother Jeb is very popular (Despite all the "angry democrat" hyperventalating Brother Jeb won re-election in a semi-landslide of +13 in 2002)  I also don't think Dem turnout has anywhere to go - I think Gore/Brazille turned out every live voter, and a few dead one there was to have in 2000. Mason Dixon has Bush +8 (too much) Rasmussen has Kerry +1.  A Mason Dixon beats a Rasmussen any day, and the average of the two - Bush Up 3 or 4 seems pretty close to reality right now.

New Hampshire (4 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 01.4%

Two polls, two weeks apart by the same firm (ARG) has Bush +5 and +6.  ARG is not a great  firm by any means, and thus not quite enough for me to flip this state back to Bush.  Less certain about Kerry taking this one than I was.  If I see a poll from a firm I trust showing Bush ahead, I'd flip this state.. (I am surprised... I had this state semi-firm for Kerry a few weeks ago)

Missouri (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +3.34%

Two polls, Bush +6 and Bush +7 - Can't see a reason to flip this one from llikely Bush

Ohio (20 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.51%

A real Battleground state.  Ohio has been hit quite hard economically, perhaps even more so than Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.  Terrance Group just finished up the "Full Meal Deal" polling of Ohio and had Bush at + 4.7.  Apparently they polled the $%$# out of all the swing counties like Montgomery, Franklin, Hamilton,Lukas, and Stark

This is a firm I deeply respect, but think that this far out the way they do their likely voter models likely pads Bush's lead by a couple points.  Bush barely ahead seems about right to me.  Teeter/Hart had the state dead even, and they did it a week after Goaes.  Bush up "barely" is my call, but if you wanted to argue Kerry up a point I would not argue back too hard either.

Nevada (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.55%

Mason-Dixon has Bush at +11. (too much) While I would be surprised if double digits holds, I'll keep this one leaning fairly hard Bush's way.

Tennessee (11 EVs)   - 2000 Result Bush + 3.86%

Bob Schrum's firm had Bush +5, and that was with a hugely exagerated African American turnout model.  Can't see a reason to change this state away from Bush.

Arkansas (6 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 5.44%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

West Virginia (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +6.32%

Too close to call.  Saw one poll a tie, the other Kerry +2.  Don't actually trust either poll, so I'll stick with "Lean Kerry" till I get something I trust.  

Louisiana   (9 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +7.68%

Saw one with Bush up 14, which seems a tad high, but state is still Solid Bush. State polls badly. Guy named Vern Kennedy (a self discribed "old coot") seems to only guy that can get decent results in this state.

Virginia (13 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +-8.04%

Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...

Colorado   (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +8.36%

Colorado is in play... in 2008... but not this year......
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2004, 06:04:16 PM »
« Edited: April 14, 2004, 06:07:37 PM by California Dreamer »

Quick Comment on Newsweek Poll

The Kerry +7/+4 is based on 874 REGISTERED VOTERS (I checked directly with Larry Hugick at PSRA International, the firm that did the poll)


....didnt you reply to me about 10 times saying I was making it up and that Newsweek was definately 'all adults' and definately not 'registered voters'?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #35 on: April 14, 2004, 06:23:43 PM »

Quick Comment on Newsweek Poll

The Kerry +7/+4 is based on 874 REGISTERED VOTERS (I checked directly with Larry Hugick at PSRA International, the firm that did the poll)




....didnt you reply to me about 10 times saying I was making it up and that Newsweek was definately 'all adults' and definately not 'registered voters'?

Actually, I said we were reading the foot notes differently..

Others found the wording unclear, as I did, and the adults vs registered issue came up again, and several people were asking about it.

So I went to the source and contacted Larry Hugick at Princton Survey Research Associates.

Your reading of the footnotes was correct, mine was not.

Cheesy
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #36 on: April 14, 2004, 06:28:35 PM »

i did notice that you have deleted the 10 quite lengthy posts you made trying to prove your point.

...glad you can admit when you were wrong...if only your president could do the same  Wink
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #37 on: April 15, 2004, 10:12:11 AM »

i did notice that you have deleted the 10 quite lengthy posts you made trying to prove your point.

...glad you can admit when you were wrong...if only your president could do the same  Wink

I would hope that would be "our" President Cheesy
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #38 on: April 15, 2004, 02:35:56 PM »



Missouri (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +3.34%

Two polls, Bush +6 and Bush +7 - Can see a reason to flip this one from llikely Bush

I hink you mean "can't" Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #39 on: April 15, 2004, 03:29:21 PM »



Missouri (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +3.34%

Two polls, Bush +6 and Bush +7 - Can see a reason to flip this one from llikely Bush

I hink you mean "can't" Smiley

You are correct.

Proofreading and typing...

Two skills I have been meaning to acquire...
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #40 on: April 15, 2004, 07:04:34 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2004, 07:28:35 PM by California Dreamer »

i did notice that you have deleted the 10 quite lengthy posts you made trying to prove your point.

...glad you can admit when you were wrong...if only your president could do the same  Wink

I would hope that would be "our" President Cheesy

...dont blame me, I voted for Kodos
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #41 on: April 15, 2004, 07:14:01 PM »

Good Bye Devils

GO FLYERS!!!

GO ORANGE AND BLACK!
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #42 on: April 15, 2004, 07:16:00 PM »

Good Bye Devils

GO FLYERS!!!

GO ORANGE AND BLACK!

Brodi will get hot, we will win next three.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #43 on: April 15, 2004, 08:53:29 PM »

Happy Democrats Day- April 15- Income Tax day Smiley
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #44 on: April 16, 2004, 08:12:00 AM »

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muon2
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« Reply #45 on: April 16, 2004, 11:19:41 AM »

It looks like the bad sample on 4/12 for Rasmussen has rolled off. Bush now holds a 46-44 edge.

Rasmussen is also reporting numbers that suggest a decrease in pessimism about the economy and war on terror. That should bode well for the Bush campaign.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #46 on: April 16, 2004, 11:42:44 AM »

It looks like the bad sample on 4/12 for Rasmussen has rolled off. Bush now holds a 46-44 edge.

Rasmussen is also reporting numbers that suggest a decrease in pessimism about the economy and war on terror. That should bode well for the Bush campaign.

45.5 to 44.1

Bush gets the "round up" today on the website Cheesy
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muon2
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« Reply #47 on: April 17, 2004, 12:31:41 PM »

It looks like the bad sample on 4/12 for Rasmussen has rolled off. Bush now holds a 46-44 edge.

Rasmussen is also reporting numbers that suggest a decrease in pessimism about the economy and war on terror. That should bode well for the Bush campaign.

45.5 to 44.1

Bush gets the "round up" today on the website Cheesy
And today it looks like he's rounded back the other way: Bush leads 45-44.

The Rasmussen numbers seem to be a little more stable the last few days. Of course, just as one should expect unusual fluctuations in the statistics, there can be a run of results that agree.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #48 on: April 17, 2004, 12:38:32 PM »

It looks like the bad sample on 4/12 for Rasmussen has rolled off. Bush now holds a 46-44 edge.

Rasmussen is also reporting numbers that suggest a decrease in pessimism about the economy and war on terror. That should bode well for the Bush campaign.

45.5 to 44.1

Bush gets the "round up" today on the website Cheesy
And today it looks like he's rounded back the other way: Bush leads 45-44.

The Rasmussen numbers seem to be a little more stable the last few days. Of course, just as one should expect unusual fluctuations in the statistics, there can be a run of results that agree.

And just barely.. Its 45.4 to 44.1....

Bush Dropped .1%, Kerry stayed the same...
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #49 on: April 17, 2004, 06:17:21 PM »

Poll finds support shifting away from Bush, a change since October survey

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/04/17/poll_finds_support_shifting_away_from_bush_a_change_since_october_survey/

Of the students polled, 62 percent said they will ''definitely" vote in November. But in 2000, only 42 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds voted, according to data from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at the University of Maryland.
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